1. Electricity Technology in a Carbon-Constrained Future
Emerging Technologies Committee Meeting Agenda
U.S. Chamber of Commerce
October 11, 2007
Washington, DC
Revis James Director, Energy Technology Assessment Center

2. About EPRI Together…Shaping the Future of Electricity
Founded in 1973 as an independent, nonprofit center for public interest energy and environmental research.
Objective, tax-exempt, collaborative electricity research organization
Science and technology focus--development, integration, demonstration and applications
Broad technology portfolio ranging from near-term solutions to long-term strategic research

3. Large and Successful R&D Collaboration
More than 450 participants in over 40 countries
Over 90% of North American electricity generated
66 technical programs
Generation
Power Delivery and Markets
Nuclear
Environment
Technology Innovation
1600+ R&D projects annually
10 to 1 average funding leverage
Research is directed to the public benefit
Limited regulatory, judicial and legislative participation

4. National Laboratories
EPRI’s Role
National Laboratories
Universities
Suppliers
Vendors
EPRI
Basic
Research
&
Development
Technology
Commercialization
Collaborative
Integration
Application
Depends Upon The Specific Technology or Discipline

5. How can the electricity industry respond?
Context
Growing scientific and public opinion that CO2 emissions are contributing to climate change…
Priority of 110th Congress …
U.S. responsible for 1/4 of global CO2 emissions…
Electricity sector responsible for 1/3 of U.S. CO2 emissions…
General agreement that technology solutions are needed…
How can the electricity industry respond?

6. EPRI Analysis Framework
Generation Options
Basis for comparing base-load generation technologies
Sensitivities of levelized cost of electricity to cost of CO2
Near term: Longer term:
PRISM
Aggressive, successful RD&D – 2030 horizon
Compare to EIA 2007
No economic, policy barriers to deployment
Economic Analysis (MERGE)
Compare limited and full technology portfolios – 2050 horizon
“The Full Portfolio” approximates PRISM assumptions
Generic CO2 emissions reductions policies
Lowest-cost technology portfolio that meets policy
Given that a substantial potential exists to reduce electricity sector emissions (PRISM), and that a full portfolio of technology options consistent with the assumptions of the PRISM would substantially reduce the economic cost of an emissions reduction policy, the next question is what has to be done to fully enable the needed levels of technology performance and deployment.
Based on its own ongoing research, domain experts, existing technology roadmaps developed in concert with other organizations, EPRI has made an assessment of the research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) investment and pathways needed to enable the results of the PRISM and MERGE analyses.
Technology Pathways
Focus on 4 major technology conclusions from PRISM
Timing and sequence of major RD&D activities – 2030 horizon

7. Comparative Levelized Costs of Electricity 2010–2015
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
All figures in 2006 $
Biomass
IGCC
Wind (32.5% Capacity Factor)
NGCC ($8/MMBtu)
NGCC ($6/MMBtu) PC
Nuclear
Rev. Oct 2007
Cost of CO2, $/Metric Ton

8. Comparative Levelized Costs of Electricity 2020–2025
Levelized Cost of Electricity, $/MWh
All figures in 2006 $
Biomass
IGCC PC
Wind (42% Capacity Factor)
Nuclear
NGCC ($6/MMBtu)
NGCC ($8/MMBtu)
Rev. Oct 2007
Cost of CO2, $/Metric Ton

9. EPRI Analysis Framework
Generation Options
Basis for comparing base-load generation technologies
Sensitivities of levelized cost of electricity to cost of CO2
Near term: Longer term:
PRISM
Aggressive, successful RD&D – 2030 horizon
Compare to EIA 2007
No economic, policy barriers to deployment
Economic Analysis (MERGE)
Compare limited and full technology portfolios – 2050 horizon
“The Full Portfolio” approximates PRISM assumptions
Generic CO2 emissions reductions policies
Lowest-cost technology portfolio that meets policy
Given that a substantial potential exists to reduce electricity sector emissions (PRISM), and that a full portfolio of technology options consistent with the assumptions of the PRISM would substantially reduce the economic cost of an emissions reduction policy, the next question is what has to be done to fully enable the needed levels of technology performance and deployment.
Based on its own ongoing research, domain experts, existing technology roadmaps developed in concert with other organizations, EPRI has made an assessment of the research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) investment and pathways needed to enable the results of the PRISM and MERGE analyses.
Technology Pathways
Focus on 4 major technology conclusions from PRISM
Timing and sequence of major RD&D activities – 2030 horizon

10. CO2 Reductions … Technical Potential*
* Achieving all targets is very aggressive, but potentially feasible.
EIA Base Case 2007
Technology
EIA 2007 Reference
Target
Efficiency
Load Growth ~ +1.5%/yr
Load Growth ~ +1.1%/yr
Renewables
30 GWe by 2030
70 GWe by 2030
Nuclear Generation
12.5 GWe by 2030
64 GWe by 2030
Advanced Coal Generation
No Existing Plant Upgrades
40% New Plant Efficiency by 2020–2030
150 GWe Plant Upgrades
46% New Plant Efficiency by 2020; 49% in 2030
CCS
None
Widely Deployed After 2020
PHEV
10% of New Vehicle Sales by 2017; +2%/yr Thereafter
DER
< 0.1% of Base Load in 2030
5% of Base Load in 2030

11. EPRI Analysis Framework
Generation Options
Basis for comparing base-load generation technologies
Sensitivities of levelized cost of electricity to cost of CO2
Near term: Longer term:
PRISM
Aggressive, successful RD&D – 2030 horizon
Compare to EIA 2007
No economic, policy barriers to deployment
Economic Analysis (MERGE)
Compare limited and full technology portfolios – 2050 horizon
“The Full Portfolio” approximates PRISM assumptions
Generic CO2 emissions reductions policies
Lowest-cost technology portfolio that meets policy
Given that a substantial potential exists to reduce electricity sector emissions (PRISM), and that a full portfolio of technology options consistent with the assumptions of the PRISM would substantially reduce the economic cost of an emissions reduction policy, the next question is what has to be done to fully enable the needed levels of technology performance and deployment.
Based on its own ongoing research, domain experts, existing technology roadmaps developed in concert with other organizations, EPRI has made an assessment of the research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) investment and pathways needed to enable the results of the PRISM and MERGE analyses.
Technology Pathways
Focus on 4 major technology conclusions from PRISM
Timing and sequence of major RD&D activities – 2030 horizon

12. Assumed U.S. Economy-Wide CO2 Constraint9
Starting Point is Current Intensity Target
Analyzed several different economy-wide CO2 constraints
PRISM electric sector CO2 profile most closely modeled by economy-wide constraint which:
Caps emissions at 2010 levels until 2020
Requires 3% decline beginning in 2020 8 7
2010 Cap to 2020 6 5
Billion Tons CO2 per year
3% decline 4 3
While the specific nature of anticipated U.S. CO2 emissions reductions policies are not known, one can model a representative generic policy in terms of the date beyond which emissions must decline continuously, and the rate of that decline.
While our analysis looked at a number of different generic policies, this one is of particular interest because it closely resembles the path of declining emissions evident in the results of the PRISM analysis.
Thus, looking at this particular generic policy will illustrate the economic impacts of achieving the technology capabilities ASSUMED as the basis of the PRISM analysis. 2 1
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050

13. Technology Scenarios
The strategy employed in the MERGE analysis was to compare two different technology scenarios.
The Limited Portfolio is a scenario in which technology options are relatively limited, most notably an assumption of no availability of CO2 capture or storage associated with coal-fired power plants, nor any capability of significant expansion of nuclear power beyond its current share of generation (roughly 20%).
This scenario provides a sort of benchmark against which the more optimistic Full Portfolio can be measured to assess the benefit of the availability of a full portfolio of technology options.

14. Full Technology Portfolio Reduces Costs of a CO2 Emissions Reduction Policy by 60%
This chart illustrates the benefit of each individual technology to reducing the cost of policy compliance. The red areas show the magnitude of this cost reduction.
Note that with a full portfolio of technology options, the cost of policy compliance to the overall U.S. economy can be reduced from roughly $1.5T to about $0.6T, a reduction of about 60%.
Note also that the cumulative effect of all technologies is not purely additive; the availability of multiple options for lowering emissions effectively some “competition” between technologies to provide emissions reductions.

15. Meeting Economy-wide Cap* with Limited Portfolio
Coal
w/CCS
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Solar
Oil
Demand Reduction
Demand with No Policy
Biomass 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Trillion kWh per Year
Limited Portfolio
With a less de-carbonized supply,
electricity load must decline
to meet the CO2 emissions target
Nuclear
Gas (with half the CO2 of coal)
pays a significant CO2 cost
Gas
Coal
*Economy-wide CO2 emissions capped at 2010 levels until 2020 and then reduced at 3%/yr

16. Meeting Economy-Wide Cap* with Full Portfolio
Coal
w/CCS
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Solar
Oil
Demand Reduction
Demand with No Policy
Biomass
Full Portfolio 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Trillion kWh per Year
Hydro
Nuclear
By 2040 the vast majority of
electricity supply is CO2-free
Gas
Coal with CCS
Coal
*Economy-wide CO2 emissions capped at 2010 levels until 2020 and then reduced at 3%/yr

17. Increase in Real Electricity Prices…2000 to 2050
Coal
w/CCS
Gas
Nuclear
Hydro
Wind
Solar
Oil
Demand Reduction
Demand with No Policy
Biomass 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Trillion kWh per Year
Limited Portfolio
Full Portfolio 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Trillion kWh per Year
+260%
+45%
Both Scenarios meet the same economy-wide CO2 Cap*
*Economy-wide CO2 emissions capped at 2010 levels until 2020 and then reduced at 3%/yr

18. EPRI Analysis Framework
Generation Options
Basis for comparing base-load generation technologies
Sensitivities of levelized cost of electricity to cost of CO2
Near term: Longer term:
PRISM
Aggressive, successful RD&D – 2030 horizon
Compare to EIA 2007
No economic, policy barriers to deployment
Economic Analysis (MERGE)
Compare limited and full technology portfolios – 2050 horizon
“The Full Portfolio” approximates PRISM assumptions
Generic CO2 emissions reductions policies
Lowest-cost technology portfolio that meets policy
Given that a substantial potential exists to reduce electricity sector emissions (PRISM), and that a full portfolio of technology options consistent with the assumptions of the PRISM would substantially reduce the economic cost of an emissions reduction policy, the next question is what has to be done to fully enable the needed levels of technology performance and deployment.
Based on its own ongoing research, domain experts, existing technology roadmaps developed in concert with other organizations, EPRI has made an assessment of the research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) investment and pathways needed to enable the results of the PRISM and MERGE analyses.
Technology Pathways
Focus on 4 major technology challenges from PRISM/MERGE
Timing and sequence of major RD&D activities – 2030 horizon

19. Key Technology Challenges
ALL of the following technology advancements will be needed in order to have a full portfolio of technologies available for reducing CO2 emissions over the coming decades:
Smart grids and communications infrastructures to enable end-use efficiency and demand response, distributed generation, and PHEVs.
A grid infrastructure with the capacity and reliability to operate with % intermittent renewables in specific regions.
Significant expansion of nuclear energy enabled by continued safe and economic operation of existing nuclear fleet; and a viable strategy for managing spent fuel.
Commercial-scale coal-based generation units operating with 90+% CO2 capture and storage in a variety of geologies.
Provides the Basis for Four Technology Pathways

20. Research, Development and Demonstration is a good investment
$1,000B
$30B
Avoided Cost to U.S. Economy
( , present value in 2000 $)
EPRI developed a preliminary estimate of the RD&D investment over the next 25 years ( ) needed to develop the technology performance and deployment capabilities forming the basis of the PRISM and MERGE analyses.
This estimate is approximately $30B (in 2000 $) over the period
Comparing this investment estimate to the estimated economic benefit to the cost of policy compliance associated with a Full Portfolio of technology options (roughly $1,000B), it is clear that this is a very good investment, even in light of uncertainties in the estimates.
RD&D Investment
( , present value in 2000 $)

21. Distribution Enabled Technology Pathway Efficiency, Distributed Energy Resources, Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles

22. Grid Enabled Technology Pathway Renewables Integration and T&D Efficiency Improvement

23. Nuclear Technology Pathway

24. Advanced Coal With CCS Technology Pathway

25. Next Steps…From Analysis to Action
Generation Options
Define critical pilot and demonstration projects for each pathway
In process with EPRI Sector Advisory Councils
Finalize prioritized list of critical projects with EPRI Research Advisory Committee and Board of Directors.
Joint RAC/Board meeting – October 2007
Expect 4 to 8 projects to be high priority
Launch high priority project initiatives
Early 2008
Project-unique collaborative structures & participants
PRISM
Pilot/Demo Projects
Economic Analysis (MERGE)
Given that a substantial potential exists to reduce electricity sector emissions (PRISM), and that a full portfolio of technology options consistent with the assumptions of the PRISM would substantially reduce the economic cost of an emissions reduction policy, the next question is what has to be done to fully enable the needed levels of technology performance and deployment.
Based on its own ongoing research, domain experts, existing technology roadmaps developed in concert with other organizations, EPRI has made an assessment of the research, development, and demonstration (RD&D) investment and pathways needed to enable the results of the PRISM and MERGE analyses.
Technology Pathways

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