1 18-Month Outlook October March 2005 Presented by Greg Hine IMO Long-Term Forecasts and Assessments

2 Presentation Outline Introduction Demand forecast Resource assessment Transmission assessment Inputs Comparisons Results

3 Separate Presentations This presentation focuses on specific Outlook inputs, comparisons with previous Outlooks and results Another presentation focuses on the market rules, market manuals and the methodology to complete demand forecast, resource assessment and transmission assessment

4 Introduction IMO’s latest 18-Month Outlook covers October March 2005 published September 24, four documents on IMO web-site: 18-Month Outlook (main document) 18-Month Demand Forecast Outlook Methodology Ontario Transmission System spreadsheet tables

5 Demand

6 Demand Forecast actual load, weather, economic data through to the end of June 2003 impact of new data captures the latest relative sensitivity and relationships between load and weather Forecast of economic variables as of July 2003

7 Variable Impact on Daily Peak Demand Temperature >16 C+1C+380 MW Temperature <10C-1C+110 MW Wind Summer-1km/h+10 MW Wind Winter+1km/h+10 MW Christmas Day-4700 MW Monday vs. Sunday+2000 MW

8 Data Impact on Model System increasingly sensitive to high temperatures but rate of increase is slowing System continues to be less sensitive to low temperatures but rate of decrease is slowing Level of economic activity is having a smaller impact on demand due to shifting demand to off-peak times growth non-energy intensive sector of the economy Applies to both peak and energy demand

9 Economic Outlook Outlook for the Ontario economy positive but lower than the forecast in the previous 18-Month Outlook World economic climate Sluggish U.S. recovery Economic data mixed Risk to the forecast is mostly on the “downside”

10 Changes to the Forecast 2003Q3 minus 2003Q2 (monthly)

11 Changes to the Peak Forecast 2003Q3 minus 2003Q2 (weekly)

12 Weekly Peak Demands Actual & Forecast

13 Weekly Peak Demands Actual & Forecast

14 Weather Scenarios November to March

15 Weather Scenarios & November to March

16 Weather Scenarios & November to March

17 Forecast Demands

18 Resources

19 Existing Resources: Total * Bruce “A” units not included

20 New Generation Projects No additional Pickering A units are scheduled to be returned to service during the Outlook period. (in Outlook period and currently under construction)

21 Resource Scenarios Existing Resource Scenario all existing resources one Pickering-A unit is included no new generation project additions 0 MW of price sensitive demand Planned Resource Scenario all existing resources one Pickering-A unit is included new generation project additions 300 MW of price sensitive demand

22 Polling Question On average what level of resources do you expect will materialize over the next 18 months? (a) less than assumed under ERS (b) about the same as assumed under ERS (c ) more than ERS, but less than PRS (d) about the same as assumed under PRS (e) more than assumed under PRS

23 Available and Required Resources Existing Resource Scenario Ontario Market Demand (Normal Weather)

24 Available and Required Resources Planned Resource Scenario Ontario Market Demand (Normal Weather)

25 Reserve Margins: Planned Resource Scenario Ontario Market Demand (Normal Weather)

26 Reserve Margins: Existing Resource Scenario and Planned Resource Scenario Ontario Market Demand (Normal Weather)

27 Reserve Margins: Extreme Weather Existing Resource Scenario and Planned Resource Scenario Ontario Market Demand (Normal Weather) Extreme weather is not expected every week

28 Sources of Risk Demand uncertainty (RR) Forced outage rate of resources (RR) New generation projects coming into service (ERS, PRS) Return of generators from planned outage (ERS, PRS, +) Hydroelectric resource utilization (RR,+) Extreme weather impact (separate scenarios,+)

29 Transmission

30 Transmission Some outages impact internal and inter-tie limits (appendix C of main document) Windsor, Toronto and Thunder Bay reactive supply

31 Overall Conclusions

32 End of presentation