The Moneyball Effect: Teaching AP Statistics through Sports Paul Buckley Gonzaga College High School Washington, DC 1
Why? Growth of Statistics 2
Why use Sports? 3
So how can Sports help us learn AP Statistics? 4
Statistical Inference Through Sports Miguel Cabrera vs Austin Jackson Who is really responsible for Detroit’s success? 5
Two-Proportion Z Test 6
The Data 7
Simulate the Games 8 StatKey Fathom
Simulation results 9 Likelihood = p-value
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Experimental Design Through Sports Which is the better putter? 11
The Experiment Control – putter, ball, ‘course’, swing Randomization – prevent ‘hot hand’ Easier to identify the response variable and what would affect it Replication Blinding Blocking 12
Experimental Design Through Sports Which is the better putter? 13
Regression Through Sports AI Moneyball scene:
15 Regression Through Sports Offense vs Defense Which is the better predictor of wins?
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Think of the possibilities… Soccer: Free Kicks vs Goals Hockey: Power Plays vs Goals Golf, which is a better predictor of success, greens in regulation or number of putts? Tennis: unforced errors or 1 st serve percentage vs points won 17
What else? Putting together a relay team (track, swimming) – lesson in z-scores, normal distributions Game strategies – situational hitting – conditional probabilities Layups vs jumpers vs 3-pointers – non- linear regression And ……? 18
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