Jittipat Poonkham Faculty of Political Science Thammasat University Ukraine in Transit: From Euromaidan to Eastern Question

MH17 Incident

Outline Structural vs. Immediate Cause Russian Interests in Ukraine From Euromaidan to anti-Maidan – Crimea – Eastern Question: Donetsk and Luhansk Conclusion

Euromaidan and Its Discontents: Explanations Structural Explanation Immediate Explanation

I. Structural Explanation Ukraine (as Borderland)? Politics of Regionalism: West vs. East – West: Ukrainian-speaking; agricultural; catholic – East/ South: Russian-speaking; industrial; Russian Orthodox Politics of Elections Politics of foreign policy orientations: pro- European vs. pro-Russian

Viktor Yanukovich (Party of Regions: 48.98%) – Yulia Tymoshenko (Fatherland: 45.47%)

Politics of Foreign Policy: Historical Cycles : Leonid Kravchuk – pro-European : Leonid Kuchma – pro-Russian 2004: The Orange Revolution : Viktor Yushchenko – pro-European : Viktor Yanukovych – pro-Russian

Russian Interests in Ukraine The right of the Russian-speaking compatriots – Near abroad as “a sphere of privileged interest” Energy factor – Ukraine as a transit state – Politics of pipelines The Black Sea Fleet at Sevastopol Ukraine within the Eurasian Customs Union (by 2015) Keep NATO out

Ukrainian-Russian Relations under Yanukovych ( ) February 2010: Viktor Yanukovych (Party of Regions) won the presidential election. – April 2010: Kharkiv Accords – Sevastopol lease extended 25 years to 2042 for cheaper gas. – against NATO membership – Jailed Yulia Tymoshenko in 2011 for “abuse of office” – Favored a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) and an Association Agreement with the EU

II. Immediate Cause EU (Association Agreement) (DCFTA) Russia Viktor Yanukovych

II. Immediate Cause EU Small number of loans With heavy strings attached The austerity measures Russia $15 billion in soft loans; cheaper natural gas No strings attached Viktor Yanukovych

The Euromaidan “Revolution”

Euromaidan: Timeline 21 Nov. 2013: Yanukovych’s deferral of Ukraine’s European integration 21 Nov Feb. 2014: the emergence of the Euromaidan State violence: Three Events – (1) 30 November 2013 – (2) 16 January 2014 – (3) 18-21/22 Feb 2014: The “February Revolution” 82 dead and many wounded 21 Feb 2014: a deal?

Maidan Nezalezhnosti

Euromaidan: Two Interpretations Horizontalism – peoples’ participation – The role of social media Elite politics – Opposition parties – mass mobilization

Euromaidan: Sociological Make-up (Data: Fond Democraticnich Iniciatyv) Average age: 36 years old High education Ukrainian speaking, with some Russian speaking 57.2% male; 42.8% female 49.8% came from Kiev; the remainder from other regions

Euromaidan: Sociological Make-up (Data: Fond Democraticnich Iniciatyv) More than 92% of Euromaidan participants did not belong to any political party; joined the movement for following reasons: – 70% because of the aggression against students during the night of 30 November – 53.3% to protest against the decision not to sign the Association Agreement with the EU – 50% to change their lives for the better – 39% to change those in power in Ukraine

Euromaidan: Sociological Make-up (Data: Fond Democraticnich Iniciatyv) LanguageRussianUkrainianBothDifficult to say 25.90%54.60%18.60%0.90% EducationProfessional training Basic Education Higher Education Still Studying 22.10%14.40%62.70%0.80% Age or older 38%49%13% SexMaleFemale 57.20%42.80%

I. Horizontalism: Civil Resistance Economic boycotts of business associated with the Yanukovych regime Building and expanding citizens’ media “Automaidan” Neighborhood Watch Groups The Open University of Maidan: lectures and discussion “Euromaidan SOS” Occupy Movement Music: e.g. “Vitya Ciao” (Goodbye Viktor)

II. Opposition Elites in Euromaidan Fatherland (Batkivshchyna) – Yulia Timoshenko Svoboda (fascist Nazi) – Oleh Tyahnybok UDAR (“Punch”) (Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reforms) – Vitali Klischko

Opposition leaders Vitali Klitschko, Arseniy Yatsenyuk and Oleh Tyahnybok

Fascist Movement Militarization of the protest – Self Defence (Samooborona) – Right Sector (Pravy Sektor) Symbols: the black- and-red flag (Ukrainian Nazi)

A Deal (21 Feb)? Talks between government and opposition Mediators: foreign ministers of Germany, Poland and France An agreement – A return to the 2004 Constitution (parliamentary system) – Increasing the power of the Rada – Calling presidential election by December 2014

New Interim Government: Fatherland + Svoboda President Olexander Turchynov PM Arseniy Yatsenyuk

A Breakdown of the Deal? Impeachment of Yanukovych Criminalization of Yanukovych and his comrades (of Party of Regions) -- > ICC Early presidential election: 25 May 2014 New laws – banning the Russian language as a second language – Disbanding the Berkut riot police Challenging the status of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet

Causes – Consequences? Protest: Euromaidan State violence by the Yanukovych government A temporary deal A Breakdown of the Deal: Marginalizing the Russians Russian Responses -- > military presence

The Rise of Anti-Maidan The East: Donetsk/ Luhansk/ Kharkiv The South: Crimea Symbols: Russian flags, regional flags A battle between Euromaidan vs. anti- Maidan protesters

Crimea – Simferopol/ Sevastopol Pro-Russian protesters vs. Tatars 26 Feb. confrontation in front of the local parliament

Russian Responses?

Russian Responses 26 Feb: Military exercises near border to prepare for a potential “crisis situation” 1 March: Russian Parliament unanimously votes to send troops to Ukraine More than 13,000 Russian naval personnel in Sevastopol Russian Parliament introduced a law allowing for regions to join Russia by referendum if its host country does not have a “legitimate government”.

Putin’s Speech (4 March) An “unconstitutional coup” Russian troops as “self- defence groups” A “humanitarian mission” to protect Russian peoples Yanukovych as the legitimate president; no political future

From Euromaidan to Anti-Maidan (1) Crimea (2) Eastern Question

I. The Crimean Referendum

15 March: UN Security Council Russia vetoed UN Security Council Resolution condemning Crimea referendum China abstained.

16 March: 96.8% for joining Russia

18 March: Russia-Crimea Treaty

Western Reaction Sanctions and travel ban (17 March) UNGA Resolution (27 March)

II. The Eastern Question

The Eastern Question 7 April 2014-present Pro-Russian militants (Donetsk/ Luhansk) – Occupied government buildings – Declaring independent “Peoples’ Republics” – Regional referendum in May 15 April: Ukraine’s “antiterrorist” operation 17 April: Geneva accord Violence 11 May: Donetsk and Luhansk declared independence after referendum

25 May 2014: Petro Poroshenko

Ukraine under Poroshenko Attempts to reestablishing Russia-Ukraine relations – 6 June: Putin and Poroshenko called for a quick end to the bloodshed in eastern Ukraine – 25 June: Putin cancelled a parliamentary resolution authorizing the use of Russian forces in Ukraine 16 June: Russia’s gas cutoff 20 June: Poroshenko’s 15-point peace plan and unilateral (one-week) truce 27 June: an Association Agreement with the EU

Shooting Down Military Planes 2 May: two military helicopters in Slavyansk, two killed 29 May: a military helicopter in Slavyansk, 14 killed 14 June: a military plane in Luhansk, 49 killed 24 June: a military helicopter in Slavyansk, 9 killed 14 July: a An-26 transport plane in the east

Conclusion? Weak State? – Failed State? – Bankrupt state? = loans with high strings attached (IMF)? Federalization or decentralization as a way forward? Russian-Ukrainian War? International Military Intervention?

Conclusion: A divided Ukraine in a divided Europe?