African THORPEX Status Aida Diongue-Niang ANACIM/Senegal Met. Service African THORPEX Regional Committee co-chair 1

Background  First THORPEX Planning meeting, Ouagadougou, February 2007 (gather African Scientists and International Community) Present THORPEX programme Present the African Science and Implementation draft document Set up a Task Force to write-up the document  THORPX TF meeting, Dakar, September 2007 Complete the Science Plan Outline feasable tasks for Implementation Prepare the 2 nd planning meeting  2 nd THORPEX planning meeting, Karlsruhe, November 2007 ( gather African Scientists and International Community) Present the revised Science Plan Discuss the Implementation activities Propose the composition of the Regional Committe 2

Background (2)  RC meeting in Pretoria2008 Review of the African Science Plan and Writing of the African Implementation plan  Production of the Science and Implementation Plan distribution to 52 African nations through PR;  25 nominated national representative  Proposals submitted to seek for funding, Canadian IDRC, EU,GEO, Karlsruhe 3

THORPEX-Africa scientific questions 4 MSGIR 02 August h00UTC  What is the available knowledge and understanding of the dynamical and physical processes of high-impacts events in Africa?  What is the skill of prediction of HI events at short to extended range?  How can we improve predictability of HI weather in Africa?  What are the best ways and appropriate tools to dissemintate information to end-users?  How to quantify and evaluate benefits of improved forecasts for societies, economy and environment?  How do we build and maintain an information system on African HIW?  What is the optimum conventional observing network to improve HIW monitoring and forecast?  What is the impact of « new observing systems » on predictabiliy of HIW?  What managable telecom. systems can enhance exchange of data through global regional and national centre?

DAOS1: Design of an optimum network in Africa DAOS2: Use of non conventional observing systems DAOS3: Improvement of telecommunications facilities PDP2: Contributing to the Development of Seamless forecast by filling the gap in intraseasonnal timescales PDP1: Predictive Skill of high impact weather SERA1: High-impact weather database SERA2: Forecast verification and cost/benefit assessments TIGGE Predictability and Dynamical Processes Societal and Economic Research Application observing systems 5 5 THORPEX-Africa Implementation, Plan, 2009

Relatively poor performance on modeling systems over Africa (particularly in Tropical Africa): 1.Misrepresentation of some key processes (NWP & Climate models ) 2.Poor observing network (+ transmission failure ) + An important Gap in NWP model development and use in Africa THORPEX-Africa: context and motivation  Impact on forecast and service delivery for societal and economic needs THORPEX-Africa aims at contributing to :  Improve forecasts and reduce the adverse effects of hydro-meteorological related natural disasters in Africa and  Promote multidisciplinary collaboration between research, operations, applications and user communities through studies in line with societal and economical needs in Africa. 6

Implementation: THORPEX-Africa 1st Workshop, 5-8 October 2009, ICTP, Trieste Sponsor (THORPEX Trust Fund, ICTP, GEO, RIPIECSA) 7 Attended by : Representatives of National Meteorological services throughout the African continent (~20) and ACMAD Representatives of major forecasting centres (ECMWF, NCEP, UK Met Office METEO-France, DWD) Research scientists (climate/meteorology, information system, hydrology, socio-economic) from Africa, Europe and North America, Representatives of relevant programmes (AMMA, GEO, EUMETNET/GEONetCAst, JWGFR, SERA, THORPEX WG, MEDEX, WIS, SDS-WAS, UCAR Africa Initiative, etc)

THORPEX-Africa 1st Workshop, 5-8 October 2009, ICTP, Trieste Objectives  To have a better picture of HIW in Africa, their impact and the warning process used. 8  To give a momentum to THORPEX-Africa planned activities regarding HIW Information system and predictability studies.  To identify tools and products available in/for African Met. Services for predicting HIW.

Tools for Predicting HIW /Assessing predictability Heterogeneous level across the continent: 1.Use of few NWP global models products through EUMETCAST distribution 2.Use of more NWP products using also Internet for dedicated Web page and/or through Retim distribution 3.Additional diagnostics with regional/local models, research- development activities, e.g. SAWS, Morocco, Algeria, Kenya Senegal 4.Systematic verification and feedback: only in few centres or in a framework pf projects (e.g. SWFDP) 5.Use of ensemble prediction: very rare, few countries mostly in Southern Africa with the SWFDP 9

Implementation Activities Case studies at sub regional basis Prototype of information system 10

Pre-CAS-XV, Incheon, November T T Tg s S s S s S Main High-impact Weather In Africa From NHMS presentations Dry spells Tropical cyclones Cyclogenesis Flooding and Landslides Strong winds Sand & Dust Episodes, Heat waves Frost 11

? ? Representatives of Met Services proposed to work at sub-regional basis focussing first on flooding events but also dust events & aerosols, dry spells, heat waves, marine hazards 12 Coordi. West Coordi. East& Centre Coord. South African RC Coordi. North Focal P. NMHS1 Focal P. NMHS2 Focal P. NMHSn Case studies at regional level

13 3 -year demonstration project with 3 phases Phase 1 High impact weather Event Description and Database Design Phase 2 Forecast skill Assessement Phase 3 Modelling activities

Why A High-Impact Weather Predictability and Information System ? The limitation of well documented cases of high impact events and data exchange within African sub-regions: a severe impediment to progress in reducing the adverse effects related to HIW Need for a mechanism to collect and exchange high impact weather data  facilitate processes/predictability studies, socio-economic research applications, forecast improvement and mitigation of detrimental effects of HIW.. Requirement to establish a database of key high-impact African weather events, consisting of observations, model outputs, event- documentation and associated predictability studies analyses, (evaluation, modelling) 14

Approach for implementation 15 While seeking for funding start the work in parallel with a few selected case studies (on a sub-regional basis; north, west, central, east, southern Africa) with  data collection (both weather and impact data) to feed an interim information system  model assessment to predict high-impact weather on the other hand will be performed

Status of case studies Progress has been slow in Phase 1: i)synoptic analysis, ii)extremeness analysis, iii)conceptual model still not completed Problems of resources: human for animation; funding for networking, training Structural problems: poor operational environment, lack of skill, limited human resources, poor interaction with universities Low involvement and commitment at higher level in NHMSs TO FOLLOW-UP  Invite THORPEX working groups, PDP, TIGGE to be involved in African THORPEX case studies.  Need of minimum of resources to enable people interacting focusing on few countries while seeking in parallel for more resources 16

Status of the interim database Space Disk allocated by ICTP but there is the need to design the database and frame the associated metadata. ICTP can help build the database that can be transferred to another African centre. This will require a person dedicated for this purpose who can go and work at ICTP as a visitor for a specified period of time. To Follow-up and given minimum of resources 17

Way forward: Implementation activities  Linking THORPEX-Africa research to operations Design a template on (HIW) events and encourage and promote reporting of HIW close to near real-time and near real-time model verification using diagnostics derived from deterministic and ensemble models Feedback to be provided. Customized TIGGE products for validation & application in Africa ? Working with the TIGGE WG and the SWFDPs in Southern and Eastern Africa and with RSMCs in other regions?  Continue to seek for funding  Training on NWP and ensembles forecasting and TIGGE dataset. 18

Thanks for your attention Questions? Contributions? 19