Status of regional climate modeling: Recommendations for WRF W. J. Gutowski, Jr. Iowa State University Ames, Iowa WRF Workshop (March 2005) with thanks.

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Presentation transcript:

Status of regional climate modeling: Recommendations for WRF W. J. Gutowski, Jr. Iowa State University Ames, Iowa WRF Workshop (March 2005) with thanks to: C. Anderson, R. W. Arritt, Z. Pan, E. S. Takle

Topics  Parameterization  Boundary conditions  Resolution  Upscaling  Testing  Diagnostics WRF Workshop (March 2005)

Topics  Parameterization  Boundary conditions  Resolution  Upscaling  Testing  Diagnostics WRF Workshop (March 2005)

Frequent MCCs Laing & Fritsch (1997) Mesoscale Circulation Factors

Frequent MCCs Laing & Fritsch (1997) Mesoscale Circulation Factors High Terrain

Stensrud (1996) Low-level Jets Mesoscale Circulation Factors

(Marengo, 2003)

Anderson et al. (2003) from - Project to Intercompare Regional Climate Simulations North-Central U.S.

Does higher resolution help? Flory (2003) 5 km 20 km OBS Precipitation [mm/hr]

Yampa Basin, Colorado Adapted from Hay et al. (2004) Gauge Analysis 20 km5 km 1.7 km

Anderson et al. (2003) Precipitation [mm] PIRCS Exp.1b June-July 1993 Observed Model Composite

Anderson (2004) = convective precip.= 925 mb wind MM5 with modified convective cloud microphysics

RegCM yr. simulations Precipitation bias vs. VEMAP [mm/d] Gutowski et al. (2004) Liang et al. (2004) Generic Precipitation Deficit

WRF, too? 36-hr Forecast Gauge Analysis

WRF parameterizations Radiation Kain-Fritsch (KF2) Betts-Miller-Janjic (Eta) Grell-Devenyi ensemble Microphysics Kessler Lin et al. WSM3 WSM5 EGCP01 (Eta, Ferrier) WSM6 PBL YSU Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (Eta) Convection Longwave RRTM GFDL (Eta) Shortwave Dudhia (MM5) Goddard GFDL (Eta)

Recommendations for WRF 1. Avoid implementing many parameterization options in standard model, Promote diagnosing physics of parameterizations and their couplings. WRF Workshop (March 2005)

WRF parameterizations … Radiation Kain-Fritsch (KF2) Betts-Miller-Janjic (Eta) Grell-Devenyi ensemble Microphysics Kessler Lin et al. WSM3 WSM5 EGCP01 (Eta, Ferrier) WSM6 PBL YSU Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (Eta) Convection Longwave RRTM GFDL (Eta) Shortwave Dudhia (MM5) Goddard GFDL (Eta) … should they include CCSM’s?

Recommendations for WRF 1. Avoid implementing many parameterization options in standard model, …but include CCSM parameterizations WRF Workshop (March 2005) 2. Promote diagnosing physics of parameterizations and their couplings.

Topics  Parameterization  Boundary conditions  Resolution  Upscaling  Testing  Diagnostics WRF Workshop (March 2005)

von Storch et al. (2004) Spectral Nudging

[mm]

ISU MM5 SIO RSM CRCM PNNL MM5  Prec

Pan-Arctic Simulation RMS Difference from Rawinsondes Wei et al. (2002)

Pan-Arctic Simulation RMS Difference from Rawinsondes

Recommendations for WRF 3. Should WRF/climate include interior nudging? No. WRF Workshop (March 2005)

Topics  Parameterization  Boundary conditions  Resolution  Upscaling  Testing  Diagnostics WRF Workshop (March 2005)

Central U.S. Warm Season Simulation Flory (2003)

Recommendations for WRF 4. Promote exploration of non-hydrostatic simulations and exploit advances in cloud microphysics modeling. WRF Workshop (March 2005)

Topics  Parameterization  Boundary conditions  Resolution  Upscaling  Testing  Diagnostics WRF Workshop (March 2005)

Stensrud (1996) Does regional, extratropical convection affect climatological large-scale circulation?

(Diabatic - No Diabatic) Simulation 200 hPa Heights and Winds Stensrud (1996) Contours: 20 mBarbs: 5 m/s [96 hr from 00 UTC 11 May 1982]

Recommendations for WRF 5. Analyze large-scale tendencies due to WRF convection, especially in diurnal cycle. WRF Workshop (March 2005)

Topics  Parameterization  Boundary conditions  Resolution  Upscaling  Testing  Diagnostics WRF Workshop (March 2005)

North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program GOALS Explore multiple uncertainties in regional and global climate model projections at the regional scalesExplore multiple uncertainties in regional and global climate model projections at the regional scales Develop multiple high resolution regional climate scenarios for use in impacts modelsDevelop multiple high resolution regional climate scenarios for use in impacts models Further evaluate regional model performance over North AmericaFurther evaluate regional model performance over North America Explore some remaining uncertainties in regional climate modeling (e.g., sensitivity to domain size, importance of compatibility of physics in nesting and nested models)Explore some remaining uncertainties in regional climate modeling (e.g., sensitivity to domain size, importance of compatibility of physics in nesting and nested models) Create greater collaboration between US and Canadian climate modeling groups, as well as with the European modeling communityCreate greater collaboration between US and Canadian climate modeling groups, as well as with the European modeling community

A2 Emissions Scenario GFDLCCSM HADAM3 link to European Prudence CGCM current future Provide boundary conditions MM5 Iowa State/ PNNL RegCM3 UC Santa Cruz ICTP CRCM Quebec, Ouranos HADRM3 Hadley Centre RSM Scripps WRF NCAR/ PNNL North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program

Inter-CSE Transferabilty (ICTS): An application of CEOP data B. Rockel, J. Roads, I. Meinke, W.J. Gutowski, R.W. Arrit & Gene Takle

Continental Scale Experiments (CSEs) MAGSBALTEXGAMEGAPP LBA/LPBAMMAMDB

Primary Objectives Study transferability of RCMs to different CSE’s (i.e. to different climate regimes)Study transferability of RCMs to different CSE’s (i.e. to different climate regimes) Apply CEOP and other observational data sets to evaluate simulated energy and water cyclesApply CEOP and other observational data sets to evaluate simulated energy and water cycles

Precipitation: Observed vs. Simulated Murray-Darling Basin (Jul-Aug-Sep) [mm]

Recommendations for WRF 6. Perform NARCCAP and ICTS simulations. WRF Workshop (March 2005)

Topics  Parameterization  Boundary conditions  Resolution  Upscaling  Testing  Diagnostics WRF Workshop (March 2005)

netcdf wrfout { dimensions: Time = UNLIMITED ; // (1 currently) DateStrLen = 19 ; west_east = 119 ; south_north = 119 ; west_east_stag = 120 ; bottom_top = 34 ; south_north_stag = 120 ; bottom_top_stag = 35 ; ext_scalar = 1 ; soil_layers_stag = 4 ; variables: char Times(Time, DateStrLen) ; float LU_INDEX(Time, south_north, west_east) ; LU_INDEX:FieldType = 104 ; LU_INDEX:MemoryOrder = "XY " ; LU_INDEX:description = "LAND USE CATEGORY" ; LU_INDEX:units = "" ; LU_INDEX:stagger = "" ; float T2(Time, south_north, west_east) ; T2:FieldType = 104 ; T2:MemoryOrder = "XY " ; T2:description = "TEMP at 2 M" ; T2:units = "K" ; T2:stagger = "" ; float SFROFF(Time, south_north, west_east) ; SFROFF:FieldType = 104 ; SFROFF:MemoryOrder = "XY " ; SFROFF:description = "SURFACE RUNOFF" ; SFROFF:units = "mm" ; SFROFF:stagger = "" ; WRF has extensive, flexible output options Possible climate extensions: Daily min/max T Daily min/max T Water & energy budgets Water & energy budgets Cloud-radiative forcing Cloud-radiative forcing

Recommendations for WRF 7. Implement a “climate suite” of diagnostics. WRF Workshop (March 2005)

Change in Daily max{T} for June-July-August (RegCM2 simulation: 2040s s) Pan et al., (2004) ˚C

 T [K] - JJA ( ) [Adapted from Folland et al. (2001) - IPCC TAR]

Recommendations for WRF 8. Determine WRF’s added value. WRF Workshop (March 2005)

Recommendations for WRF 1. Avoid implementing many parameterization options in standard model, but include CCSM parameterizations 2.Promote diagnosing physics of parameterizations and their couplings. 3.Should WRF/climate include interior nudging? No. 4. Promote exploration of non-hydrostatic simulations and exploit advances in cloud microphysics modeling. WRF Workshop (March 2005)

Recommendations for WRF 5. Analyze large-scale tendencies due to WRF convection, esp. in diurnal cycle. 6. Perform NARCCAP and ICTS simulations. 7. Implement a “climate suite” of diagnostics. 8. Determine WRF’s added value. WRF Workshop (March 2005)

Thank you! WRF Workshop (March 2005)