Agriculture & Food Security Climate Change Training Module 625 Robert Street North PO Box St. Paul, MN Minnesota Climate and Health Program Minnesota Department of Health Environmental Impacts Analysis Unit Agriculture & Food Security Climate Change Training Module

MDH developed this presentation based on scientific research published in peer-reviewed journals. References for information can be found in the relevant slides and/or at the end of the presentation. Notice 2

Food Security Observed Climate Changes Crop Production Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine & Poultry Culturally Important Foods Other Issues Adaptation & Best Management Practices Outline 3

Food Security: 1.Food safety 2.Amount of food all people at all times have both physical and economic access to access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to maintain a healthy and active life - World Health Organization Definitions 4

(Source: Ye, 2013) Economic impact of Minnesotas agriculture: – $75 billion per year in agricultural production and processing – Employment impact: 342,000 jobs Nationally, Minnesota is top 10 in more than 20 agricultural products: – #1 turkey, sugar beets – #2 hogs, sweet corn for processing, oats, wild rice – #3 soybeans, spring wheat, green peas for processing, dry edible beans – #4 corn, canola, flaxseed – #5 mink pelts – #6 dairy cows, red meat, hay, cheese, honey – #7 milk, potatoes, sunflowers – #9 cattle and calves – #10 lamb If MN agriculture was disrupted, it could have a great impact on our economy and food security for the U.S. and internationally Minnesota Agriculture 5

(Source: NCADAC, 2013) Minnesotans consume food from a global market; food security is impacted by climate change not just in Minnesota Climate change could affect – Amount of food produced – Variety and nutritional value of food – Cost of food Food Security and Health 6

Food Security Observed Climate Changes Crop Production Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine & Poultry Culturally Important Foods Other Issues Adaptation & Best Management Practices Outline 7

(Source: NASA, 2005) Weather – conditions of the atmosphere over a short period of time Climate – conditions of the atmosphere over long periods of time (30- year standard averaging period) Definitions 8

(Sources: Seeley, 2012; Zandlo, 2008) There have been three recent significant observed climate trends in Minnesota: The average temperature is increasing The average number of days with a high dew point may be increasing The character of precipitation is changing Observed Climate Changes 9

(Sources: Western Regional Climate Center, 2011a; Seeley, 2012) Temperature Changes in Minnesota 10

(Source: Zandlo, 2008) Winter temperatures have been rising about twice as fast as annual average temperatures Minimum or overnight low temperatures have been rising faster than maximum or daytime high temperatures Significant observations in warming pattern: Temperature Changes in Minnesota 11

(Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center, 2012) WINTER: + 2.2°AUTUMN: + 0.5° SUMMER: + 0.8°SPRING: + 1.6° Seasonal Temperature Trends (°F per century) Based on Data Temperature Changes in Minnesota 12

(Sources: Horstmeyer, 2008; Seeley, 2012) Dew point – a measure of water vapor in the air A high dew point makes it more difficult for sweat to evaporate off the skin, which is one of the main mechanisms the body uses to cool itself The number of days with high dew point temperatures ( 70°F) may be increasing in Minnesota Dew Point Changes 13

(Sources: Seeley, 2012; State Climatology Office, 2012) Number of Days Dew Point Changes 14

(Source: Western Regional Climate Center, 2011b) Changes in Precipitation 15

(Source: Midwestern Regional Climate Center, 2012) WINTER: + 0.3°AUTUMN: in SUMMER: inSPRING: in Seasonal Precipitation Trends (inches per century) Based on Data Precipitation Changes in Minnesota 16

(Sources: Seeley, 2012; State Climatology Office, 2012c) Precipitation in Minnesota is changing: More localized, heavy precipitation events Potential to cause both increased flooding and drought Changes in Precipitation 17

Food Security Observed Climate Changes Crop Production Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine & Poultry Culturally Important Foods Other Issues Adaptation & Best Management Practices Outline 18

CROP PRODUCTION 19

(Source: Walthall et al, 2012) Changing climatic conditions will impact Minnesota crop production in four primary ways: 1.Long-term changes in average temperatures and precipitation patterns 2.Increase in pests and invasive species 3.Acute losses resulting from more frequent and intense weather extremes 4.Impacts of runoff, soil erosion and reduced infiltration from increased intensity of storm events Climate Change Impacts 20

CO 2 (Sources: USDA Global Change Task Force, 2010; Walthall et al, 2012) Crop production relies on a balance of temperature and precipitation, soil composition, and atmospheric CO 2 Complex System 21

Growing season Earlier spring thaw + 2 weeks = Growing season (Sources: NCADAC, 2013; CCSP, 2008) Earlier Minnesota spring = longer growing season – Midwest growing season lengthened by almost two weeks since 1950, due in large part to earlier timing of the last spring freeze – Earlier pollination – Longer growing season may increase crop production – Species distributions have shifted Longer Growing Season 22

(Source: National Wildlife Federation, 2010) Climate change has not only brought Minnesota a longer growing season but also changes in the types of plants that will thrive here Changing Plant Hardiness Zones 23

(Sources: NCADAC, 2013; Walthall et al, 2012; California Climate and Agricultural Network, 2011) Increase number of frost-free days and reduced winter chill hours Many crops require minimum number of days near freezing to keep plants dormant during winter In warmer winters crops bud or bloom earlier Pro: Longer growing season and potentially larger harvest Con: Increased risk of damage from late spring frost (e.g., Minnesota apples and Michigan cherries in 2012) Effects of Frost Days 24

(Sources: Beddow, Pardey and Seeley, 2012; Walthall et al, 2012; NCADAC, 2013) With warmer temperatures in Minnesota, pests, diseases and weeds may: – Expand northward into climate- stressed areas – Survive warming winters better – Require increased use of pesticides and herbicides Pests, Diseases and Weeds 25

(Sources: Oxfam Issue Briefing, 2012; Walthall et al, 2012; Seeley, 2008) Warmer Minnesota summers and Higher maximum temperatures may Increase crop yields with some warming Decrease crop yields with too much warming Warmer Summers 26

(Sources: Walthall et al, 2012; Hanks, 2013; NCADAC, 2013) Warmer Minnesota nights and higher minimum temperatures may Stress some plants, taxing their ability to grow and resulting in lower yields Cause some plants, such as tomatoes, to ripen faster Disturb pollination and lower crop productivity and reduce quality Warmer Nights & Minimum Temps 27

(Sources: Davis, Epp and Riordan, 2004; Taub, Miller and Allen, 2008; NCADAC, 2013) Globally, the nutritional value of some foods may change due to Elevated atmospheric CO 2 (increased carbohydrates, decreased protein & vitamins) Changes in cultivated varieties (favor yield over nutrient content) Nutritional Value 28

(Sources: Walthall et al, 2012; Reich, 2012; NCADAC, 2013) Potentially Healthy Crop Growth Increased CO 2 Healthy Crop Growth Increased Precipitation Inadequate Water Existing Amounts of Precipitation Effects of Increased Evapotranspiration in Three Scenarios Increased Evapo- transpiration and Crop Water Demand/Use Increased Temperature Complex interactions of temperature and precipitation Temperature Effects on Water Demand 29

2007 Declared Disasters: X= Drought X = Flood (Sources: Seeley, 2012; CDC, U.S. EPA, NOAA and AWWA, 2010; IDWG on Climate Change, 2008) Precipitation variability can cause drought Localized, heavy storms can result in inadequate precipitation in some regions of the state Impacts crop yields Prolonged droughts can increase fire danger Flood and Drought 30

(Sources: NOAA, 2012; USDA NASS, 2013) Crop Production Down in 2012 Due to Drought, USDA Reports Drought 31

Source: Farm Industry NewsFarm Industry News May 24, 2012 (Sources: NCADAC, 2013; Walthall et al, 2012) Increased precipitation in Minnesota has been driven by intensification of the heaviest rainfalls, resulting in: Flooded fields and damaged crops Increased runoff and reduced infiltration of water for crop use Increased soil erosion, leading to – Soil nutrient loss – Sediment contamination of nearby water bodies Precipitation Effects: Flooding 32

Source: MPR News photos of the week, June 15, 2012 (Photo courtesy of Pat Baskfield ) (Sources: Nearing et al, 2005, Sinha and Cherkauer, 2010) Runoff and erosion will be affected most by High rainfall intensity Soil quality Low crop cover in spring and fall Land use Runoff and Erosion 33

Food Security Observed Climate Changes Crop Production Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine & Poultry Culturally Important Foods Other Issues Adaptation & Best Management Practices Outline 34

LIVESTOCK: CATTLE, DAIRY ANIMALS, SWINE & POULTRY 35

(Source: NCADAC, 2013) Changing climatic conditions affect animal agriculture in four primary ways: 1.Feed-grain production, availability, and price 2.Pastures and forage crop production and quality 3.Animal health, growth, and reproduction 4.Disease and pest distributions Climate Change Impacts 36

(Source: NCADAC, 2013) Animal health is highly susceptible to temperature: – Heat stress negatively affects cattle, swine and poultry health – Warmer winters may reduce mortality but will likely be offset by greater mortality in hotter summers Animal Health 37

(Source: CCSP, 2008) Hotter temperatures may reduce productivity of livestock and dairy animals – Animals lose appetite, gain weight slower and take longer to get to market – Production decreases, including milk from dairy cattle and eggs from poultry – Reproduction decreases resulting in smaller herds Animal Growth & Reproduction 38

(Source: Walthall, 2012) Climate change may affect – Frequency, intensity, or distribution of animal diseases and pests – Livestocks resistance to infections and diseases Disease and Pest Distributions 39

Food Security Observed Climate Changes Crop Production Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine & Poultry Culturally Important Foods Other Issues Adaptation & Best Management Practices Outline 40

CULTURALLY IMPORTANT FOODS IN MINNESOTA 41

(Sources: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; NCADAC, 2013) Climate change will affect the availability and affordability of social and cultural foods – Mental health effects – Physical health effects Shortages of culturally important foods for tribal community members in Minnesota – Natural wild Rice – Moose – Traditional, cold-water fish Culturally Important Foods 42

Map of Wild Rice Locations Source: MN DNR (Sources: DNR, 2008; Myers, 2012) Greatest long-term threat to natural wild rice is climate change Negative effects on wild rice: – Hot & dry conditions – Warmer winters – Warm, humid conditions – Severe weather: 2012 Northeast flood Wild Rice 43

Source: MN DNR (Sources: DNR, 2011; DNR, 2013; Orrick, 2013; Moose are a critical component of the cultural identity northern Minnesota, cultural food source Decline in Minnesota moose population Causes of mortality are likely health- and stress-related factors Warming climate is a contributing factor in high mortality Moose 44

CONCEPTUAL DIAGRAM OF CLIMATE WARMING EFFECTS ON MINNESOTA FISH COMMUNITIES Sources: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; Peter Jacobson, DNR Fisheries Research Supervisor In Minnesota, climate change is warming waters Warming waters stress native fish populations and may favor invasive species Fish: Warmer Water 45

Walleye, StarTribune, April 15, 2013StarTribune (Sources: CDC, U.S. EPA, NOAA and AWWA, 2010; Monson, 2009) Warmer waters and rainfall intensity may be contributing to an increase in mercury concentrations in fish (27) Climate change may lower water levels Which affects concentration of contaminants in the water, the concentration of toxic chemicals in fish and quantity of fish Fish: Water Quality Impacts 46

Food Security Observed Climate Changes Crop Production Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine & Poultry Culturally Important Foods Other Issues Adaptation & Best Management Practices Outline 47

OTHER ISSUES 48

(IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; NCADAC, 2013) Food prices may rise if Production declines Prices of inputs increase (such as, petroleum-based fertilizers and pesticides) Food insecurity increases with rising food prices Food Prices 49

Image source: Pete Markham (Source: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008) Climate change impact on food system delivery: Damage to transport and distribution infrastructure from extreme weather events Barging/shipping: low water levels in Mississippi and Lake Superior Food System Delivery 50

(Sources: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; Portier et al, 2010) Impacts of climate change on food safety: Increased need of climate control to prevent food spoilage Increased runoff or flooding from livestock to nearby fields may cause crop contamination and damage to stored food Food Safety 51

Food Security Observed Climate Changes Crop Production Livestock: Cattle, Dairy Animals, Swine & Poultry Culturally Important Foods Other Issues Adaptation & Best Management Practices Outline 52

Best Management Practices Adapt to climate change ADAPTATION & BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES 53

(Source: NCADAC, 2013) Adaptation is not new to agriculture Adaptation practices will vary by location due to climatic, soil and topographic variability Strategies may include: – Biodiversity – Wetland restoration – Reduce soil erosion – Mitigate heat effects on livestock Adaptation 54

(Source: IDWG on Climate Change, 2008; FAO, 2013) Agrobiodiversity includes: Harvested crops, livestock breeds, fish species, and wild plants and animals Supportive species: soil micro- biota, bees, earthworms, etc. Supportive ecosystems0 Agrobiodiversity includes: Harvested crops, livestock breeds, fish species, and wild plants and animals Supportive species: soil micro- biota, bees, earthworms, etc. Supportive ecosystems0 Biodiversity increases resilience to changing environmental conditions and stresses Increases potential to adapt to climate change Biodiversity 55

Source: MDA, 2007 Wetlands and buffers can help manage too much or too little precipitation MN wetland restoration: 500,000 acres of wetlands and associated upland buffers restored (as of 2007) Wetland & Buffer Management 56

Source: Farmer D Blog, by Steven Bell on November 14, 2011 (Source: Walthall et al, 2012) Strategies : – Conservation tillage – Crop residue management – Perennial crops and cover crops – Management of livestock grazing intensities Strategies may also enhance water management during drought Soil and nutrient erosion rates may increase with more intense rainfall events associated with climate change Reduce Soil Erosion 57

(Sources: UC-Davis, UMN and WSU, 2012; UMN Extension, 2012) Hot weather increases water consumption – Cattle increase their water consumption by 20-50% when heat stressed Alleviate heat stress in cattle, poultry and swine – Install cooling systems (evaporative cooling, air conditioning or geothermal) – Increase air movement – Provide plenty of water and shade – Manage diet for weather (type of food and time of day) Mitigate Heat Effects 58

Source: Minnesota Grown Pick of the Month newsletter, January/February 2013 Diverse food supply – balance of food grown locally and regionally – Diversity of locally grown food insulates MN from climate change impacts in other states and countries – Minnesota Grown promotes local producers of specialty crops and livestock Promote Diverse Food Supply 59

Spotlight on SHIP From Statewide Health Improvement Program (SHIP) funds have funded local public health activities that support healthy eating and local farms. Achievements include: Farm to School programs in 440 schools, reaching 235,00 students 95% increase in the number of farmers markets across the state *SNAP = Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, formerly known as Food Stamps **WIC = Women, Infants and Children Both programs are supported by USDA Increase food security through programs that support food education and health eating Food education Promote local food initiatives – Farm to School programs – Farmers markets Accept SNAP* and WIC** at produce and farmers markets Local Public Health Actions 60

Reduce potential increases in foodborne illnesses due to changes in temperature and precipitation Educate on proper food handling (e.g., washing fruits and vegetables) Monitor MDH website for warnings on fish consumption: Local Public Health Actions 61

Our health depends on reliable, nutritious, adequate supply of food and the resources to procure our food Changes in climate and weather may lead to variability in agricultural production Production variability may affect food prices, food security and culturally important foods Farmers can implement adaptation strategies to minimize the impacts of climate change Local public health can increase food security through programs that support food education and encourage healthy eating Summary 62

Special thanks to the following people for their contributions to the creation of this training module: Mark Abrahamson, Minnesota Department of Agriculture Minden Buswell, University of Minnesota Mary Hanks, Minnesota Department of Agriculture Kevin Hennessy, Minnesota Department of Agriculture Larry Jacobson, University of Minnesota Kathy Kromroy, Minnesota Department of Agriculture Ann Pierce, Minnesota Pollution Control Agency David Schmidt, University of Minnesota Joshua Stamper, Minnesota Department of Agriculture Curt Zimmerman, Minnesota Department of Agriculture Mark Zumwinkle, Minnesota Department of Agriculture This work was supported by cooperative agreement 5UE1EH from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Acknowledgements 63

August 26, 2013 Contact the Minnesota Climate and Health Program: Questions? Thank You 64

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