1 Two ways weve looked at future LTC 1.Understanding the market (demand side) 2.Understanding the system (supply side) MDH -- LTC Issues Committee

2 How is the market changing? Census counts & State Demographer projection Older Minnesotans Tomorrow

3 * tpt research 2006 *

4 Older Minnesotans Tomorrow Upbeat Enjoyers (19.4%) –Enthusiastic, active, involved –Optimistic about future –Believe age increases attractiveness –Want to expand intellectual horizons –Want to work in retirement –Feel financially secure

5 Older Minnesotans Tomorrow Insecure (36.5%) –Troubled by lack of financial resources –Pessimistic about future –Concerned about crime –Feel age impacts memory and appearance –Few plans for retirement

6 Older Minnesotans Tomorrow Threatened Actives (25.2%) –Want to preserve independence –Generally positive outlook –Dont think retirement is time for new interests/growth –Accept themselves as they are –Would like to pass assets to children

7 Older Minnesotans Tomorrow Financial Positives (18.8%) –Realists and long-term planners –Positive view of their lives –Dissatisfied with current appearance –Have planned not to work in retirement –Feel financially secure –Relentless seekers of value

8 Boomers want to Age in Place Source: 2005 Survey of Older Minnesotans Older Minnesotans Tomorrow

9 More will live alone (18% of Boomers are childless, high divorce rates) Do not think of self as old expect to continue as is Car culture: social networks defined by affinity or proximity?

10 Can older people stay in their own homes? Source: 2005 Survey of Older Minnesotans Older Minnesotans Tomorrow

11 CS/SD -- Trends and Experience What is the future LTC Market??? Control over assistance = Assistive Technologies Self-help, self-management, self-direction Minimize change -- stay in home of choice Minimize disruption in preferred routine What assistance do people want to buy?

12 CS/SD -- Trends and Experience More efficient use of current workers Augment with technology Augment with volunteers Augment with consumer/caregivers training Less windshield time; hub-&-spoke models Less paperwork/administrative hassle (!)

13 TRENDS and CS/SD EXPERIENCE Better links between health and support systems and monitoring Better chronic disease management Find windows of opportunity for getting consumers attention Focus on high cost combos: dementia, multiple chronic illness Reduce incidence of crises

14 What DOES LTC System Look Like? Supply side... CMS Grant – State Long-Term Care Profile Thomson Reuters consultants Common data and common elements across waivers and populations HCBS Expert Panel

15 What DOES LTC System Look Like? Ten States Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Virginia, Arkansas, Michigan, Nevada, Kentucky, Florida and Minnesota Common State Profile Tool Developed by Thomson and piloted in Pennsylvania

16 What DOES LTC System Look Like? 7 Target Populations Older Adults Adults with Physical Disabilities Adults with Mental Retardation/Developmental Disabilities Children and Adults with Mental Illness Adults Living with HIV/AIDS Infections Adults with Traumatic Brain Injuries Children with Special Needs

17 What DOES LTC System Look Like? State Profile Tool elements... –Consolidated administration –Single access points –Institution supply controls –Process for transition from institutions –Continuum of residential options –HCBS capacity development –Participant direction options –Quality management system