SEARCH Observing Change Panel: Update on past activities and plans for the next year OCP Overview Activities: Arctic Observation Integration Workshops, 2008 Sea Ice Outlook, Coordination of agency-based and international observing activities Input needed: CADIS Advisory Group Priorities for next year: Coordination of observations with agencies, cross-panel assessment of observing efforts, refine Outlook

SEARCH Observing Change Panel Charge: (i) Work with the broader scientific community to develop and at opportune intervals update SEARCH Arctic Observing Network (AON) Implementation documents, (ii) jointly with UCP & RCP oversee implementation of AON by (a) identifying unexplored or undeveloped synergies between individual AON projects and other ongoing national and international observation programs, (b) identifying gaps in the observation network relative to the goals of the SEARCH program, (c) outlining potential partnerships with other agency programs relevant to the SEARCH AON effort, (d) helping ensure a broader legacy of the AON that extends beyond IPY; (iii) provide feedback and advice as sought by the SEARCH SSC, Data Working Group, UCP, and RCP on relevant aspects of the science and methodology of observing change in the Arctic environment (iv) provide a link between the SEARCH observational programs and the broader scientific community to ensure flow of information and promote scientific exchange, promote international collaboration and coordination of Arctic observing system activities with complementary programs by colleagues in other countries. Members (new members appointed in 2008 shown in italics): Carin Ashjian, Hajo Eicken, Craig Fleener, Larry Hinzman, Ron Kwok, Craig Lee, Peter Murdoch, Maribeth Murray, Steve Oberbauer, Don Perovich, Eric Rignot, Taneil Uttal

Arctic Observation Integration Workshops March 2008, Palisades, NY; NSF AON & ARCSS sponsorship with strong international contribution under SEARCH for DAMOCLES umbrella Three components for effective interaction and development of synergies: –Arctic Observation Network (AON) Meeting –Autonomous & Lagrangian Platforms Workshop –Lessons from the 2007 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Workshop Selected short-term recommendations (details in report at –AON: Assessment of how well SEARCH goals are addressed; strengthen interagency coordination; tools to coordinate field research; Sea Ice Outlook as synthesis tool; explore integration of model output into CADIS portal; data coordination at international level; CADIS Advisory Group; guidance of observations by stakeholder priorities

Arctic Observation Integration Workshops Selected short-term recommendations (details in report at –Lagrangian Platforms: sustain observation effort beyond IPY; implement amphibious buoy; work for improved buoy access to eastern Arctic; harden ice-based observatory components for ice transition seasons; continue adaptation of floats/gliders to ice environment; white paper detailing acoustic navigation array –2007 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum: Implement Sea Ice Outlook as analysis and synthesis tool; retrospective assessment of Outlook and follow-up workshop; synthesis papers on 2007 ice summer & ecosystem impacts (incl. paleo-data); synthesize ecological & human-dimensions information & identify further datasets needed; modeling effort to explore scenarios & projections to inform management & policy Long-term recommendations (details in report) focus on data & information management, interagency & international coordination, implementation of arctic-wide integrated ocean/ice observing array, integration of observations & models to arrive at scenarios

2008 Arctic Sea Ice Outlook International effort- integrated, community-wide anticipation, summary and evaluation of 2008 summer season (Core Integration Group chaired by J. Overland prepared outlooks from submissions; Advisory Group reviewed draft prior to release) Builds on recommendations of March 2008 Arctic Observations Integration Workshop Monthly poll on September 2008 anticipated minimum ice extent, integrating model output and observations of ice evolution (18 different groups contributed) Summary evaluation released in early October 2008 w/ strong recommendation for continuation of effort in 2009

Increasing predictive skill as summer progresses, reflected in responses shifting to higher values centering around observed 2008 minimum Ensemble simulations with ice- ocean model hold promise May Outlook July Outlook

2008 Arctic Sea Ice Outlook Good agreement between projections and observations (July Outlook media 0.2x10 6 km 2 above observation in September) Conclusions: Late spring ice conditions major driver of 2008 season, role of summer weather patterns well captured by ensemble simulations and surface observations, future evolution inconclusive but indications are for few years at current level before further reduction, replacement of multi- by first-year ice may provide for more predictability in future Improvements needed: Remote sensing of spring/summer sea ice, ice- thickness fields for initialization, more rigorous forecasting/evaluation methods, anticipation of ice evolution on interannual scales - to be addressed in improved effort in 2009 Positive assessment by broader community; several federal agencies very supportive, e.g., of value to NOAA w/ respect to climate-services discussion

Sea Ice Outlook: Next steps Fall 2008: Preparation of journal article (Eos) summarizing ice situation and evaluating Outlook as a synthesis tool 17 December 2008: Sea Ice Outlook Community Meeting at Fall AGU Meeting (time & place tba via web site and ArcticInfo) January/February 2009: Sea Ice Outlook Working Group Meeting and Community eMeeting to synthesize results, identify strengths & weaknesses of effort and plan for dedicated effort 2009 (NOAA workshop support anticipated) February/March 2009: Final Sea Ice Outlook Retrospective Report published Winter/spring 2009: Planning for 2009 Sea Ice Outlook effort based on feedback and recommendations

Interagency coordination Low-level discussions with a number of researchers and research coordinators within federal agencies fruitful but more is required Timely topic with IPMC raising the issue at last SEARCH SSC meeting, new IARPC AON Working Group in place & relevant agency observing programs underway Discussions within OCP on best way to move forward (two agency contacts: Peter Murdoch, USGS, and Taneil Uttal, NOAA) In collaboration with the IPMC, IRPC, P. Murdoch & C. Lee to develop plan for small-scale meeting in DC with agency representatives to explore options for improved interagency coordination in the context of AON and other observing activities (Spring 2009) To be further developed through potential theme of interagency coordination for next AON Investigators Meeting, tentatively scheduled for late summer/early fall 2009 In preparation, request that agencies provide update on SEARCH activities by populating project database at: SEARCH project office to prepare official request to agencies

International coordination OCP participation in Sustained Arctic Observing Networks (SAON) workshops Some discussion of SAON in relation to SEARCH and ISAC; OCP submitted comments on SAON draft report for final SAON workshop Main points: –Need to address rapidity of change requires a highly adaptive observing system with strong ties to scientific research underpinning observations –Strong linkage needed between observing program, modeling activities and decision makers and stakeholders in need of information for management and planning –Arctic change is coupled (environmental, socio-economic, geopolitical) and requires strong interdisciplinary approaches, e.g. as those underlying Millennium Ecosystem Assessment focusing on services delivered by ecosystems –Operational and research observing programs need to be brought together, requiring discourse among key groups, incl. industry, enforcement and others who are starting to ramp up large Arctic programs –What is the potential role of ISAC?

CADIS Advisory Group AON Arctic Observation Integration Workshop called for implementation of CADIS Advisory Group (CAG) Previous discussion of phasing out of SEARCH Data Working Group with completion of SEARCH Data Management Plan OCP discussed internally & w/ SEARCH Data Working Group members, drafted Terms of Reference for CAG and identified potential members willing to serve CAG to serve as liaison between CADIS and prospective data & information users & providers- articulate needs of AON and broader SEARCH investigators, advise CADIS on products & services CAG to be implemented by SEARCH SSC and to report to OCP

CADIS Advisory Group Terms of Reference - DRAFT The CADIS Advisory Group (CAG) serves as a liaison between CADIS and prospective data and information users and providers from the scientific community and among stakeholders. Specifically, the CAG should help articulate the needs of Arctic Observing Network (AON) and other SEARCH investigators with respect to CADIS’ services and products. The group should also provide advice to CADIS on its products and services as needed. In order to be effective, the CAG should be comprised of roughly a half dozen members representing the observing change components of SEARCH (through the OCP and AON PIs) as well as the broader Arctic environmental change research community (through SEARCH SSC members with appropriate expertise). A member representing broader data management expertise or stakeholder information needs may be included as needed. The group is formed under the SEARCH governance structure and reports to the Observing Change Panel. CAG activities would be coordinated by the CAG Chair in consultation with CADIS, SEARCH SSC and OCP and the cognizant NSF program officer.

CADIS Advisory Group Suggestions for members: –SEARCH SSC representation: Max Holmes –SEARCH/ARCSS representation: Don Perovich –SEARCH OCP representation: Carin Ashjian, Steve Oberbauer –SEARCH Data Working Group Transition: Dave McGuire –Others?

Next steps Assessment of AON responsiveness to SEARCH goals by UCP - task and supporting materials being assembled; similar tasking for RCP Integration of existing Arctic observing system components: scientific level, agency level, international level - role of SEARCH as integrator? Defining (redefining?) and building partnerships with agencies - DC meeting; AON Investigators meeting; other steps? Cross-panel coordination and integration: first steps taken with UCP; RCP needs to be addressed Role of Cyberinfrastructure in data archival and dissemination: Still an open question