Global Warming and The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Rhode Island John King Professor of Oceanography Graduate School of Oceanography University of Rhode.

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Presentation transcript:

Global Warming and The Impact of Sea Level Rise on Rhode Island John King Professor of Oceanography Graduate School of Oceanography University of Rhode Island

The Problem

Whats going on? Increased Carbon Emissions Rising Temperatures Rising Sea Level

Indicators of human influence on the atmosphere

Changes in Temperature, Sea Level and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover Courtesy of IPCC, 2007

Rising Temperatures

Courtesy of the Union of Concerned Scientists

Global and Continental Temperature Change Courtesy of IPCC, 2007

Changes in annual average temperature in the Northeast

Changes in sea surface temperature - Maine

Rhode Island climate migration Courtesy of the Union of Concerned Scientists

Rising Sea Level

Four contributions to sea level rise 1. Thermal expansion of seawater 2. Melting of glaciers and ice caps 3. Ice sheet surface mass balance snowfall - melting 4. Ice sheet surface dynamical imbalance increased flow rate

Types of barrier islands

Evolution of barrier islands during Holocene sea level rise

Sea Level Rise: Observed vs. Projected Interval Model Prediction Observed mm/year mm/year

Projected globally averaged surface warming & sea level rise at the end of the 21st century Courtesy of IPCC, 2007

IPCC estimate 1. Thermal expansion of seawater cm 2. Glaciers and ice caps cm 3. Mass balance cm 4. Increased flow cm Total: 40 cm Range of Estimates: cm

Sea level rise projections

Observed and Projected Sea Level Rise by 2100 Church & White, 2006, Courtesy of IPCC, 2007 observed projected

Sea Level Rise: Observed = Projected observed projected

Sea Level Rise: New Estimates Reference By 2100 Total Rise (feet) Overpeck, et al, 2006 > Rahmstorf, (feet)

Greenhouse Gases in Ice Cores From Brook, E. J., Science, 25 vol no. 5752, pp

Rising Sea Level in Rhode Island ~ Southern Coastal Ponds

Sea level rise: 3 feet Overpeck, J. T., et al., Paleoclimatic evidence for future ice sheet instability and rapid sea level rise. Science, v. 311, p

Sea level rise: 20 feet Overpeck, J. T., et al., Paleoclimatic evidence for future ice sheet instability and rapid sea level rise. Science, v. 311, p

Quonnie Pond: present sea level

Quonnie Pond: 3 ft. sea level rise

Quonnie Pond: 20 ft. sea level rise

Global Impacts of Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Courtesy of IPCC, 2007

Planning Needs 1. Seamless digital terrain model for RI LIDAR survey of coastline High-resolution bathymetry of coastal waters 2.Inundation model Storm surge with wave regime superimposed Better understanding of coastal erosion style and rate Expanded Rhode Island sea level and coastal erosion monitoring program

Perhaps our epitaph will be: The good Earth. We could have saved it, but we were too damn cheap and lazy. ~ Kurt Vonnegut