1 Electoral College Outcomes Recent patterns Current array of Dem, Rep, toss-up states Alternate scenarios for Nov. 2 Article 2, Section 1 of the U. S.

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Presentation transcript:

1 Electoral College Outcomes Recent patterns Current array of Dem, Rep, toss-up states Alternate scenarios for Nov. 2 Article 2, Section 1 of the U. S. Constitution created the Electoral College. Each state receives as many electoral votes as it has senators and representatives. Therefore, each state, including the District of Columbia, will have at least three electors.

2 Recent patterns: Bush/Dukakis Republicans win big EC: Bush 426 (79%), Dukakis 111 (21%) Votes: Bush – 48,886,097 (53.9%) Dukakis – 41,809,074 (46.1%) Total votes: 90,695,171 Reps=blue, Dems=Red

3 Democrats win big in 1996 EC: Clinton 379 (70%), Dole 159 (30%) Votes: Clinton - 47,402,357 (49%); Dole 39,198,755 (41%); Perot – 8,085,402 (8%) 92,686,514 total votes Recent patterns: Clinton/Dole

4 Recent patterns: Gore/Bush 2000 No one wins big EC: Bush 271 (50.4%), Gore 266 (49.6%) Vote: Bush – 50,456,002 (48.4% Gore – 50,999,897 (48.9%) Nader – 2,882,955 (2.8%) Total Votes: 104,338,854

– General Pattern: of EC Votes: Rep (Red), Dem (Blue) and Toss-up (White) States

6 Distribution of Electoral College Votes – Current Distribution and Democratic “Sure” States (>5%) Current distributionCurrent distribution Changes since 2000 – Dem sure states lost 3 EC votes Total 183 but only 179 if Kerry loses Hawaii State EC Votes Change in # of Votes since 2000 Bush-Dem: (Poll+2000)/2 Bush Poll % Kerry Poll % Dem "Sure" states Dist. Col New York Rhode Island Mass Maryland Connecticut Illinois Vermont New Jersey Delaware California Hawaii Maine Washington Dem "Sure" states =>

7 Changes since 2000: Dem leaning states lose 4 EC votes Total 65 Total blue sure and leaning =248 Minus (Hawaii): 244 (need 36 votes) Distribution of EC Votes: Democrat “Leaning” States (2.5-5%) State EC Votes Change since 2000 Bush- Dem: (Poll+200 0)/2 Bush Poll % Kerry Poll % Dem "Leaning" states (1.5- 5%) Penn Oregon Minnesota Michigan Wisconsin Democratic leaning Dem Sure+lean =>248

8 Distribution of EC Votes: Rep “Sure” States, 5%+ Changes since Rep states gain 3 EC votes Total 217 State EC Votes Change in EC Votes since 2000 Bush- Dem: (Poll+20 00) /2 Bush Poll % Kerry Poll % Rep "Sure" States Arizona Missouri Arkansas Virginia Tennessee North Carolina Mississippi Alabama Georgia Indiana Kentucky South Carolina Louisiana Kansas Texas South Dakota Montana North Dakota Oklahoma Alaska Nebraska Idaho Wyoming Utah Rep "Sure" States =>

9 Changes since 2000: Rep leaning states gain 0 EC vote Total 5 Total Rep sure and leaning 217+5=222 Add Hawaii: 226 (need 44 votes) Distribution of EC Votes: Republican “Leaning” States State E C Votes Change in # Of Votes since 2000 Bush-Dem: (Poll+2000) /2 Bush Poll % Kerry Poll % Rep "Leaning" States (1.5-5%) West Virginia Rep "Leaning" States =>)

10 Changes since 2000: Toss-up states gain 2 EC votes Total 68 Distribution of EC Votes: “Toss-up” States (-2% to +2%) State EC Votes Change in # of Votes since 2000 Bush- Dem: (Poll+ 2000)/2 Bush Poll % Kerry Poll % Iowa New Hampshire Florida Nevada New Mexico Ohio Toss up states =>

11 1 st Scenario Bush Wins “Big” Assumptions: Wins all Rep sure states = 217 Wins all Rep leaning and Hi=9 Wins all toss-up states =68 Wins Minn. and Michigan =27 Total Bush: 321

12 2 nd Scenario Bush Wins “Small” Assumptions: Wins all Rep states = 217 Wins Rep leaning =5 Wins all toss-up states=68 Total Bush: 276 Total Bush win range:

13 4 Scenarios Kerry Wins “Small” Assumptions: Wins all Dem sure states except Hi = 179 Wins all Dem leaning=65 Wins one large toss-up state = Florida=27 OR: wins Ohio (20) +Iowa (7) =27 Total Kerry: 271

14 4 th Scenario Kerry Wins “Big” Assumptions: Wins all Dem sure states including Hi = 183 Wins all Dem leaning states = 65 Wins all toss-up states =68 Total Kerry: 316 Total Kerry win range: