Technology Forecasting Data Examples provided by Technology Futures, Inc. Austin, TX by permission

Five key impacts on Technology Forecasting Technical Social Environmental Legal Political

Types of Forecasts Surveillance Normative (Goal Oriented) Expert Opinion Integrative (Scenarios) Projective

Surveillance READ EVERYTHING!!!!!  The Economist  Wired Nov 2003: Smart Bandages, Superglue for sutures, Growth Hormones, Open source computing for medicine, Modafinil for insomnia, Heart tissue regeneration  Business 2.0  Historians Groups exist that do this professionally  SRI  DATACOM  Technology Futures, Inc.

Expert Opinion Seeking definition of the knowable future Single Expert Committee Surveys Groups Delphi Structured Interviews

Nominal Group Technique Outline of goals and methods by moderator Silent, independent generation of ideas Silent, written presentation of ideas Discussion of ideas Silent independent voting

Using Expert Opinion More Effectively Surveys-Traditional Sampling  effective only if the general population knows the subject Groups-Focus, brainstorming, nominal group technique Delphi  effective if it is a new technology known only by a few experts

Implications Wheel Potential topics (select one- well defined  innovation, trend, decision Write a concise statement (hub) Areas of direct, immediate impact (1st ring) Impacts of direct impacts (2nd ring) Higher order impacts (3rd and 4th ring)

General Rules of Thumb If a technology achieves worldwide standardization, it will tend to see explosive growth.  Fax Machines Standardization can be through standards bodies (CCITT, IEEE, etc.) or defacto industry standard (Windows and Intel).

Trend Analysis Looking for the roots of change Trend Extrapolation  What happens if this trend keeps going? Constant percentage rate of improvement Growth models and performance envelopes Precursor Developments  Has this happened before?

Accuracy is More Critical Than Precision

Will These Targets Match the Competition?

The Real Competitive Targets

The Compound Interest Approach to Competitive Performance

Trend of Costs for Dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM Chips)

U.S. Farm Technology Improvements

Effective Costs of Cellular Telephone Service in Current Dollars

Bell System Employee Productivity

Constant Percentage Rate of Improvement Most new technologies fit this trend pattern Rates will remain the same if the basic assumptions are unchanged:  The improvement is technically possible  The product demand/need continues  Basic approach remains the same Subsidies may increase short term rates Laws and regulations may decrease short term rates

Growth Models and Performance Envelopes A frequently observed pattern for technologies which have natural limits  ex. how many eggs can a chicken physically lay each day?  therefore, what is the maximum possible egg production rate for a Tyson chicken farm?

Growth Model Forecast of Egg Production Model

Average Cost of Residential Electric Service in 1967 Dollars

Airline Development-1

Airline Development YearSeatsSpeedSeat MPH Type ,000Ford Trimotor ,000Various Ave ,000Douglas DC ,000Douglas DC ,000Lockheed ,000DeHavilland Comet ,000

Airliner Development -2

Airliner Development-3

Airliner Development-4

Airliner Development-5

Natural Limits and Constraints

Setting Competitive Targets

Precursor Patterns and Trends

Random Access Memory Historical Development

Annual Sales of Consumer Electronics (sales in $1,000s)

How Can You Judge a Forecast Before the Fact? Are assumptions specified? Is quantitative evidence included? Does it follow a path of logic? Is the projected rate of improvement comparable to prior rates? If the forecast breaks from the past are substantial reasons offered? Does it provide a basis for rational discussion?

Multiple trends in life expectancy