User optimized weather and power forecasts: Fostering acceptance through dialog - Bridging the gap between meteorology and the energy sector - Daniel Lee, V. Stauch, I. Alberts

Grid management in the age of renewables Renewable proportion in power mix Current Goal from federal energy concept 2010 With expanded energy corridor (coalition contract 2013)

Grid management in the age of renewables German High-Voltage Transmission System TSOs have the priority of ensuring energy safety and stability  Stabile frequency (50 Hz) and voltage (380/220 kV)  Balanced supply and demand Power can only be transmitted using existing infrastructure

Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze

Power grid

Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze Power grid REA Power market Power trading and renewable energy act (REA) require long-distance power transfers

Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze Power grid REA Power market Power trading and renewable energy act (REA) require long-distance power transfers

Power grid REA Power market Power trading and renewable energy act (REA) require long-distance power transfers Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze

Power grid The grid is becoming a power transport system Problems: n-1 safety Voltage & frequency maintenance REA Power market Power trading and renewable energy act (REA) require long-distance power transfers Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze

Spatial distribution of supply and demand Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze

Year Events* Days Number of (n-1) critical situations * Ereignisse, in deren Folge Maßnahmen nach § 13 EnWG und § 11 EEG ergriffen wurden; ohne Spannungsprobleme Energiewende – Herausforderung für die Übertragungsnetze

Grid management in the age of renewables Turbulence effects at the windpark Horns Rev, west coast of Denmark, 12. Feb. 2008, 13:00. Photo: Christian Steiness EWeLiNE: Development of innovative weather and power forecast models for the grid integration of weather dependent energy sources

TSOs: Current forecast usage Traditional use of meteorological data: Long-term climate data for siting

TSOs: Current forecast usage New use of meteorological data: Day-ahead and intraday forecasts for grid management Fraunhofer IWES, 2014

TSOs: Current forecast usage Since early 2000s: Direct use of DWD forecasts for wind power forecasts Additionally: Inofficial use of secondary weather products Wetteronline.de

Current forecast shortcomings Nonetheless, errors can be large enough to endanger grid stability! Projected production Day ahead Intraday 3000 MW error: Power balancing necessary 6000 MW error: Trade necessary

Current forecast shortcomings Most errors in grid projections are from renewable feed-in, which is weather- dependent. Wind  Front passages (intensity and spatiotemporal positioning)  Bias in stable conditions  Diurnal cycle Photovoltaic  After passage of cold fronts  Convection  Low stratus clouds  Snow cover Additional gains can come from using probabilistic forecasts.

Fostering adoption: User dialog Energy users come from a nonmeteorological background and are used to deterministic forecasts Temperature “Hard” initial condition Easy: Single forecast as projected “truth“ Forecast time

Fostering adoption: User dialog Energy users come from a nonmeteorological background and are used to deterministic forecasts Temperature Forecast time Hard: Confidence communicated as a probability density function Distribution of initial belief

Fostering adoption: User dialog Before product development begins: Discussions with users, workplace visits to understand their needs

Fostering adoption: User dialog Before product development begins: Discussions with users, workplace visits to understand their needs Throughout the development process: Frequent meetings, brainstorming sessions, training with new products, etc.

Fostering adoption: User dialog Example: Users would like to see probability of windspeed from 2 directions First try:

Fostering adoption: User dialog Example: Users would like to see probability of windspeed from 2 directions First try: Too complicated!

Fostering adoption: User dialog Example: Users would like to see probability of windspeed from 2 directions Second try: Just right! kn time

Fostering adoption: Flexible technical solutions Weather products Weather forecasts Web server GeoServer Firewall IWES (power forecast) DWD (weather forecast)TSOs (grid management) WMS / WFS Power products Power forecasts EWeLiNE Demonstration System GUI (JavaFX + WebKit) Weather web client (DWD) Power client (IWES) Firewall

Fostering adoption: Flexible technical solutions EWeLiNE weather web client

Fostering adoption: Flexible technical solutions Custom plots for user locations Custom mashups to match user‘s needs

Fostering adoption: Flexible technical solutions Seamless integration in (semi-) automated decision support systems

Thanks for listening! Team at DWD: Isabel Alberts Zied Ben Bouallegue Stefan Declair Tobias Heppelmann Richard Keane Carmen Köhler Regina Kohlhepp Visit us at Daniel Lee Kristina Lundgren Annika Schomburg Jonas von Schumann Vanessa Stauch Andrea Steiner Andreas Röpnack Gernot Vogt Elsewhere at WWSOC:  UAS-PS Sunday 14:20 – 14:40 (Kristina Lundgren)  POM Monday 15:00 – 16:30 (Daniel Lee)  POT Tuesday 15:00 – 16:30 (Kristina Lundgren, Jonas von Schumann)  SCI-PS Tuesday 17:00 – 17:20 (Annika Schomburg)  SCI-PS Wednesday 14:20 – 14:40 (Jonas von Schumann)