Learning Objectives Copyright © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Learning Sample Size Determination CHAPTER thirteen

Learning Objectives 1. To learn the financial and statistical issues in the determination of sample size. 2. To discover the methods for determining sample size. 3. To gain an appreciation of a normal distribution. 4. To understand population, sample, and sampling distribution.

Learning Objectives 5.To distinguish between point and interval estimates. 6.To recognize problems involving sampling means and proportions.

Learning Objectives Financial, Statistical, and Managerial Issues As a general rule: The larger the sample, the smaller the sampling error. Larger samples cost more. The financial and statistical issues in the determination of sample size. Determining Sample Size for Probability Samples

Learning Objectives Budget Available Financial constraints challenge the researcher. The financial and statistical issues in the determination of sample size. Methods for Determining Sample Size Rules of Thumb Desired sampling error Past experience Similar studies A gut feeling

Learning Objectives Number of Subgroups To Be Analyzed The sample should contain at least 100 respondents in each major subgroup. Traditional Statistical Methods An estimate of the population standard deviation. The acceptable level of sampling error. The desired level of confidence that the sample will fall within a certain range of the true population values. To discover the methods for determining sample size. Methods for Determining Sample Size

Learning Objectives General Properties 1. The normal distribution is bell-shaped and has only one mode. 2. Symmetrical about the mean 3. Uniquely defined by its mean and standard deviation. 4. The total area is equal to one. 5. The area between any two values of a variable equals the probability of observing a value in that range when randomly selecting an observation from the distribution. To gain an appreciation of a normal distribution. The Normal Distribution

Learning Objectives 6. The area between the mean and a given number of standard deviations from the mean is the same for all normal distributions. The Standard Normal Distribution The same features as any normal distribution. The mean is equal to zero The standard deviation is equal to one. To gain an appreciation of a normal distribution. The Normal Distribution

Learning Objectives Z= value of the variable - mean of the variable standard deviation of the variable To gain an appreciation of a normal distribution. Z = X -   where X = value of the variable  = mean of the variable  = standard deviation of the variable The Normal Distribution

Learning Objectives Population Distribution A frequency distribution of all the elements of a population. Sample Distribution A frequency distribution of all the elements of an individual sample. Sampling Distribution of the Sample Mean A frequency distribution of the means of many sample means from a given population To understand population, sample, and sampling distributions. Population, Sample, and Sampling Distributions

Learning Objectives If the samples are sufficiently large and random, the resulting distribution of sample means will approximate a normal distribution. The distribution of the means of a large number of random samples taken from virtually any population approaches a normal distribution with a mean equal to  and a standard deviation equal to: To understand population, sample, and sampling distributions. s x =  n √ Population, Sample, and Sampling Distributions

Learning Objectives The Standard Error of the Mean Applies to the standard deviation of a distribution of sample means. To understand population, sample, and sampling distribution.  x x =  n √ Population, Sample, and Sampling Distributions

Learning Objectives Basic Concepts 1. A normal distribution 2. Mean equal to the population mean. 3. Standard deviation Making Inferences on the Basis of a Single Sample A 68 percent probability that any one sample from a population will produce an estimate of the population mean that is within plus or minus one standard deviation of the population mean. Sampling Distribution of the Mean To understand population, sample, and sampling distribution.

Learning Objectives A 95 percent probability that any one sample from a population will produce an estimate of the population mean that is within plus or minus two standard deviations of the population mean. A 99.7 percent probability that any one sample from a population will produce an estimate of the population mean that is within plus or minus three standard deviations of the population mean. To understand population, sample, and sampling distribution. Sampling Distribution of the Mean

Learning Objectives Point Estimates Inferences regarding the sampling error associated with a particular estimate of the population value. Interval Estimate Inference regarding the likelihood that a population value will fall within a certain range. To distinguish between point and interval estimates. 1 x1 x x<  <x+ 1 x1 x Sampling Distribution of the Mean

Learning Objectives A relative frequency distribution of the sample proportions of a large number of random samples of a given size drawn from a particular population. 1.Approximates a normal distribution 2.The mean proportion is equal to the population proportion. 3.Standard error computed as: To recognize problems involving sampling means and proportions. Sampling Distribution of the Proportion P (1-P) SpSp = n √

Learning Objectives where: S p = standard error of sampling distribution proportion P = estimate of population proportion n = sample size To recognize problems involving sampling means and proportions. Sampling Distribution of the Proportion P (1-P) SpSp = n √

Learning Objectives Problems Involving Means The formula for calculating the required sample size for problems that involve the estimation of a mean: Sample Size Determination n = Z 2  2 E2E2 where: Z = level of confidence expressed in standard errors  = population standard deviation E = acceptable amount of sampling error To recognize problems involving sampling means and proportions.

Learning Objectives Problems Involving Proportions n = Z 2 [P 1 -P)] E2E2 To recognize problems involving sampling means and proportions. Sample Size Determination

Learning Objectives Population Size and Sample Size Make an adjustment in the sample size if the sample size is more than 5 percent of the size of the total population. Finite Population Correction (FPC) An adjustment in cases where the sample is expected to be equal to 5 percent or more of the total population. (N-n) / (N-1) To recognize problems involving sampling means and proportions. Sample Size Determination

Learning Objectives Adjusting for a sample that is 5 percent or more of the population and dropping the independence assumption:  x x =  n √ N - n √ N - 1 To recognize problems involving sampling means and proportions. Sample Size Determination

Learning Objectives Reducing the required sample size using the Finite Population Correction nN N + n -1 n' = where: n' = revised sample size n = original sample size N = population size To recognize problems involving sampling means and proportions. Sample Size Determination

Learning Objectives Determining Sample Size for Stratified and Cluster Sample Beyond the scope of this text. Determining How Many Sample Units You Need Don’t want to pay for more numbers than needed Don’t want to run out of numbers. To recognize problems involving sampling means and proportions. Sample Size Determination

Learning Objectives Statistical Power The probability of not making a Type II error. Type I Error The error of concluding that there is a difference when there is not a difference. Type II Error The error of saying that there is no difference when there actually is a difference. Statistical Power To recognize problems involving sampling means and proportions.

Learning Objectives Determining Sample Size for Probability Samples Methods for Determining Sample Size The Normal Distribution Population, Sample, and Sampling Distributions Sampling Distribution of the Mean Sampling Distribution of the Proportion Sample Size Determination Statistical Power SUMMARY

Learning Objectives The End Copyright © 2002 South-Western/Thomson Learning