Estimation of 2000 Zonal Employment for the Delaware Valley Region Based on Census Data by Thabet Zakaria Deputy Director for Transportation Planning Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission

Accurate zonal employment data are required for traffic analysis, travel forecasting, transportation planning, and economic development projects. This paper describes the methodology used by DVRPC to develop 2000 zonal employment or total jobs estimates for the Delaware Valley region based on the census employed persons at work, which are included in the Census Transportation Planning Package 2000 and the journey-to-work traffic flows. A three-step method was used to develop county, municipal and zonal employment estimates for the region, which includes 9 counties, 355 municipalities, and 1,912 Traffic Analysis Zones. The Census Bureau is the only agency that provides employed persons data at the zonal level. ABSTRACT

Employment estimates from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Pennsylvania and New Jersey Departments of Labor (ES-202), and local data were used to compare the zonal employment estimates developed by DVRPC. The DVRPC county, municipal, and zonal employment estimates are based on quality data from Census 2000 and are consistent with other federal, state, and county estimates. Although it does not include the number of total jobs and comparable Standard Industrial Classification sectors, CTPP 2000 can be adjusted easily and utilized in transportation and regional planning studies, such as travel simulation, trend analyses, job access, reverse commuting, and the preparation of transportation plans and programs. ABSTRACT (Continued)

FIGURE 1 Delaware Valley Region ,912 Counties Municipalities Traffic Analysis Zones

To develop zonal employment data from Census 2000, a three- step process was employed: (1) estimate employment at the county level; (2) estimate employment at the municipal level; and (3) estimate employment at the zonal level. Employment data are also available from secondary sources at the county and municipal levels, but not at the zonal level which are provided only by the CB. In this process, county employment numbers are estimated first and used as control totals for developing both municipal and zonal employment estimates because the county numbers are based on more accurate data from the CB and other secondary sources. ESTIMATION OF 2000 ZONAL EMPLOYMENT

CTPP 2000 Labor Force, Unemployed and Employed Persons in the Delaware Valley Region LaborUnemployedEmployed CountyForcePersons Bucks 320,11011,128308,982241,603 … Philadelphia 656,93571,582585,353660,050 Burlington 219,8718,462211,409183, Mercer 180,29913,528166,771200,225 Region Total2,666,178167,2552,498,9232,449,040 Place of Residence Persons Place of Work Employed

Four adjustments to census employed persons at work were made. The first adjustment was made to account for absentee rates. This information is available from census data and ranges from 1.5 to 2.7 percent. Secondly, an adjustment was made to account for workers who have not been included in the journey-to-work flow. This adjustment ranges from 1.9 to 4.0 percent by county. Thirdly, the census employed persons at the place of work were increased by 6.5 percent to account for multiple job-holding. This information is based on the DVRPC household travel survey. Finally, the fourth adjustment is needed for estimating employment sectors (industry). Sector data from BEA and ES-202 were used to adjust CTPP 2000 sectors within the estimated county employment totals. County Employment Estimates

Comparison of 2000 County Employment Estimates for the Delaware Valley Region

Comparison of 2000 BEA, DVRPC, & ES 202 Employment Sector Estimates for the Delaware Valley Region CTPP 2000 Employment BEADVRPC ES 202 Sectors 31,95625,24525,32610, ,754130,814101,573135, ,035312,145300,646290, ,534133,923129,87692, ,860435,850431,325278, ,180118,190110, , ,271212,911168,625202,730 1,191,172982,300877,9341,180, ,126351,222354,080128,172 22,4589,3668,685 3,121,5542,717,8572,524,2722,448,116 Manufacturing Agriculture & Mining Construction Sector Estimates 2000 Employment Region Total F.I.R.E. Services Employment Sector Government & Public Administration Military Retail Trade Transportation & Utilities Wholesale Trade

The number of employed persons at work in each municipality was tabulated from the 2000 MCD-to-MCD journey-to-work flows. Municipal employed persons were increased to be equal to the estimated county control totals. These were called preliminary MCD estimates. DVRPC staff then requested the counties to review the preliminary MCD estimates based on their land use plans and programs. After receiving county comments, DVRPC staff reviewed the county comments and incorporated some of them in the MCD estimates. Finally, DVRPC reviewed the preliminary MCD and zonal estimates and developed final MCD and zonal employment estimates within the county control totals estimated in Step 1. Municipal and Zonal Employment Estimates

CTPP 2000Step 2Step 3 EmployedPreliminaryFinal PersonsMCDZonal at WorkEstimates Diff.Percent 100 1,7802,0862, % ,7603,0502, % Oxford Bor, PA 1,9252, % Monroe Twp, NJ 6,3257,3767,3771, % Philadelphia, PA 660,095741,397 81, % Mercer, NJ 200,235220,915 20, % 2,449,1082,717, , % Traffic Analysis Zone County Region Total Estimates Municipality Areal Unit DVRPC 2000 Employment Estimates Prelm. - CTPP County DVRPC Step 1 Final CTPP 2000 Employed Persons at Work and DVRPC 2000 Preliminary and Final Employment Estimates

ST FIGURE Change in Municipal Employment

CTPP 2000 for the Delaware Valley region contains quality employment data at the county, municipal, and zonal levels. However, there are several statistical problems in the census data, which must be identified and resolved before using the data in transportation planning, travel simulation, and employment location studies. Such problems have been identified and resolved in the estimation of 2000 county, municipal, and zonal employment estimates. CONCLUSIONS

CTPP 2000 regional employed persons at work data were increased by 11.0 percent because they do not include all jobs. The analysis of employment sectors showed new problems due to the change from SIC to NAICS and some biases in the responses, which should be resolved before the 2010 census. Other secondary sources of employment such as ES-202 and BEA were used as a guide to determine reasonable employment sector estimates for the DVRPC region. With these adjustments, CTPP 2000 employment data are invaluable for transportation planning. The CTPP is the only source for zonal employment data and it is much easier to adjust census data than to collect or develop them from the beginning. CONCLUSIONS (CONTINUED)

The DVRPC cooperative process for the development of zonal employment estimates based on CTPP data produces reasonable estimates at the country, municipal, and zonal levels. It can be applied easily to other regions in the country that have MCDs, including Pennsylvania, New Jersey, New York, New England states, Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Also, it can be applied efficiently to other regions in the remaining states to develop county and zonal employment estimates, which are needed for travel simulation, economic development, and other transportation planning studies. CONCLUSIONS (CONTINUED)

Estimation of 2000 Zonal Employment for the Delaware Valley Region Based on Census Data by Thabet Zakaria Deputy Director for Transportation Planning Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission