Severe Space Weather Policy Context: national and international SEREN Workshop March 2014 Kirsty Rouillard Space Weather Policy & Project Manager, CCS

Overview Civil Contingencies Secretariat, Severe Space Weather 1.Why should we be concerned about space weather – where did the risk come from? 2.How is the UK government managing this risk? 3.Who are we working with? 4.What planning considerations are there? 5.What opportunities are there?

The Civil Contingencies Secretariat Civil Contingencies Secretariat, Severe Space Weather Improve the UK’s resilience to absorb, respond to, and recover from potential disruptive challenges of all types. Short-term horizon scanning and medium term risk assessment building capability ensuring consistency critical infrastructure supporting community and corporate resilience planning for the big stuff and dealing with it when it goes wrong

UK NRA discussions started May 2010 Space Environment Impacts Expert Group (SEIEG) formed November 2010 Emphasis on (peer reviewed) scientific evidence Reasonable Worst Case Scenario NRA in 2011 NRR in Jan 2012 RAE Report Feb 2013 The origins of severe space weather

Significant (4) Relative Impact Moderate (3) Minor (2) Limited (1) Catastrophic (5) Low (1) Medium Low (2) Medium (3) Medium High (4) Relative Likelihood High (5) Significant likely risks: For these risks specific planning is usually merited. For new risks in this area of the grid more detailed advice will be provided on the impacts, existing preparedness and gaps to inform the planning approach for these risks Significant less likely risks: The proportionate approach for these risks is usually to rely on existing planning. For new risks in this area more detailed advice will be provided to inform decisions on how to approach these risks. Lower impact risks The more common risks that are quite plausible but with more moderate impacts – these can be prepared for in a generic way by building capabilities to deal with a wide range of typical consequences Other high likelihood risks with unique consequences: These may have consequences not captured by generic planning. For these risks specific planning for these unique aspects may be merited. The National Risk Assessment

Where does severe space weather fit?

The 1859 Carrington Event The perfect storm – largest CMEs, solar energetic particle events and solar flares Storm lasting approx. 3 days but some effects weeks or months Widespread effects (GPS, aviation, loss of GPS, telecoms, satellites) likely to be felt globally Severity of impact will vary with location Impacts that are not known or fully understood Other less severe storms 1921 – Geomagnetic storm 1958 – Radio blackout 1989 – Quebec blackout 2003 – ‘The Halloween event’ Reasonable Worst Case Scenario

Impacts Civil Contingencies Secretariat, Severe Space Weather LRFs Presentation (Credit: K. Turnbull / J. Wild / ESA )

UK Government’s approach Worked with experts to define & agree scenarios for space weather – focused on Carrington Event in 1859 Assessed and scored impacts of new risk in NRA/NRR – 1859 Carrington event : solar flares, radiation storm, CME Table top chaired by Government Chief Scientific Adviser, December 2012 Research undertaken by Royal Academy of Engineering (RAE) Set up project to improve awareness and preparedness Identified primary areas of impact: aviation, power networks, satellites and communications Planning for transformer damage/voltage instability - National Grid Identifying GNSS reliant technology and planning mitigation Planning for airspace restrictions, understanding health implications – CAA, ICAO International collaboration Local engagement Develop new or additional capability – Gap Analyses On going engagement with departments to progress work to fill capability Developing 24/7 UK forecasting – Met Office Preparedness Strategy Keep risk and underpinning science under review - SEIEG Workshop to ensure planning is fit for purpose UK/US workshops to progress joint learning/ preparedness Defining and assessing the risks Planning for the risksBuilding capabilities

International Context UK relationships – US, Sweden, Canada, EU, NATO, France? Different stages for different countries – Risk Assessment/Action Different priorities depending on infrastructure and vulnerability Political difficulties for different countries – EIS = US International companies crossing national boundaries (EDF, Shell etc.) o How do Governments work with companies that have a global reach? o Can capability required be built by individual organisations or does it need intervention at national or international level? ICAO – aviation mitigation (too slow) o Impacts likely to be felt internationally. How closely aligned do international responses need to be?

There remain significant uncertainties. Science still evolving and hard to evaluate interdependencies between impacts. Time from notification of an event to impacts being experienced is short. Are we assured that industry is taking the appropriate mitigation actions? What information and warning can we give local responders? Are they aware of the risk? How do we raise awareness of the risk with industry and the public? o Who can help with public outreach? When and how do we warn the public? How do we do this without crying wolf? Policy challenges

Questions? Kirsty Rouillard Severe Space Weather Policy & Project Manager, CCS