Confronting Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region Impacts and Solutions for Great Lakes Communities and Ecosystems

Reports for California, Gulf Coast States, Great Lakes, Northeast U.S. Available for download at:

Take Home Messages: 1.Climate change is real, and is changing the character of the Great Lakes region 2. Climate change magnifies existing environmental problems 3. Science-based, common-sense solutions are available now

1. Evidence of Climate Change in the Great Lakes Region Temperatures are rising, especially in winter Extreme rainfall events are becoming more frequent Winters are shorter Spring comes earlier Shorter duration of ice cover especially on small and large lakes

Plant Hardiness Zones have moved 1990 vs 2006

Extreme rainfall events (24-hr and 7-day) are becoming more frequent

Lake Mendota, Wisconsin 1 Year Ice Cover (Days) Magnuson April 2001 From John Magnuson

Common (but unusual) events on Lakes Mendota and Monona Winter of

Lake Mendota, Wisconsin Ice Cover (Days) 10 Years J. Magnuson

Ice Cover (Days) Lake Mendota, Wisconsin Dynamics from El Niño Years 50 Years ( ) J. Magnuson

Trend caused by Global Change Ice Cover (Days) Corresponds to ~1°C in Air Temperature per 100 Years J. Magnuson

Lakes and Rivers are Freezing Later, and Thawing Earlier (37 of the 39 time series are in the direction of warming) Modified from J. Magnuson et al for IPCC Freeze Breakup MacKenzie Rivern NW Terr. Kallavesi, Finland Lake Mendota, WI Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan Baikal, Russia Grand Traverse Bay, Lake Michigan Kallavesi, Finland Baikal, Russia 1 Nov 1 Dec 1 Jan 1 Feb 1 Mar 1 Apr 1 May 1 Jun

Temperature –Winter 5-12 °F (3-7 °C) –Summer 5-20 °F (3-11 °C) –Extreme heat more common Precipitation –Winter, spring increasing –Summer, fall decreasing – drier soils, more droughts More extreme events – storms, floods Ice cover decline will continue Boreal Forests likely to disappear in G.L. region Projected Climate Changes in the Great Lakes Region by 2100

Climate Warming will Impact the Future Weather we “Feel” summers

The Changing Character of Lakes, Streams, & Fish Cold-water fish will decline, warm-water species move north Summer “dead zones” and fish kills will increase Greater susceptibility to invasive species Water levels likely to decline

Gerald C. Bucher

“Dead Zones” & Fish Kills will increase

Great Lakes Regional Production ~$2 Trillion Values in millions of $ What is at risk? (Tourism, recreation)

2. Climate Change Impacts Will Not Occur in a Vacuum Population is growing Increased urbanization & sprawl Landscape fragmentation Air and Water pollution Social challenges Geographic limits

Michigan Land Use, 1980 Built Agriculture Other vegetation Forest Lake Wetland 2001 Michigan Land Resource Project

Michigan Land Use Projections, 2040 Built Agriculture Other vegetation Forest Lake Wetland 2001 Michigan Land Resource Project

Exacerbation of Existing Problems Water Resources Small streams & wetlands likely to dry up – loss of biodiversity Pressure to increase water extraction from the Great Lakes Lake levels expected to decline Pollution from PCBs and heavy metals will increase as more dredging is required

Exacerbation of Existing Problems Human Health Cold-related health problems will decline while heat- related morbidity and mortality will increase Extreme heat more likely: –40+ days by 2100 >90°F (32 °C) –25+ days by 2100 >97°F (36 °C) Higher ground-level ozone concentrations Waterborne and other infectious diseases may become more frequent and widespread

Meeting the Climate Challenge Avoiding the unmanageable Managing the unavoidable

3. Worst Impacts Are Not Inevitable No-regrets solutions available now Three-pronged approach to deal with climate change: 1. Reducing our emissions 2.Minimizing pressure on the environment 3. Planning and preparing to manage the impacts of a changing climate

Barry Rabe; PEW Center

Azar, C. and S.H. Schneider Ecological Economics 42: 73–80. Global GDP The projected costs of stabilizing atmospheric CO 2 levels are low in terms of Global Gross Domestic Product - Business as usual 75-90% reduction in GHG by 2100 costs 1-4% GDP; GDP grows by 2-3%/yr; environmental benefits not included We delay the time we become 10 times richer from 2100 to 2102

Personal Solutions Be carbon conscious Look for the Energy Star label Choose clean power Unplug underused appliances Get a home energy audit Light bulbs matter Take the stairs Buy good wood Let policy makers know you are concerned about global warming

Summary Climate change must be considered in preserving the character of any locality or region. “Saving” the Great Lakes or the northern forests or the rainforest requires both policy and management initiatives. Science tells us that the longer we wait, the larger the negative impacts will be. Common sense solutions are available now. Take home point: “Nothing happens in a vacuum…”