Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 1/45 Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF Renate Hagedorn European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 2/45 ECMWFs… …background and structure …research activities Integrated Forecast System (IFS) …operational activities production, delivery, archiving

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 3/45 Background Convention establishing ECMWF entered in force on 1 st Nov 1975, having been ratified by the following 13 Member states: Recognition of importance and potential to improve medium-range weather forecasts with benefits to the European economy Protection and safety of population Development of meteorology in Europe / post university training Development of European industry in the field of data-processing Recognition that resources are needed on a scale exceeding those normally practicable at national level Belgium Germany France Yugoslavia Austria Finland United Kingdom Denmark Spain Ireland Netherlands Switzerland Sweden

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 4/45 Today… …ECMWF is an independent international organization, supported by 18 member states 13 co-operating states Iceland Czech Republic Slovenia Romania Serbia Hungary Croatia Estonia Lithuania Morocco Co-operating agreements: Montenegro Slovakia Latvia

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 5/45 New Convention Amendments to the ECMWF Convention were unanimously adopted by Council at its 62 nd extraordinary session on 22 April 2005 Finalization of the ratification process is expected by the end of 2009 The adopted amendments concern mainly: allowing new Member States to join enlarging ECMWFs mission to environmental monitoring re-defining some decision making processes (voting rights) widening the possibilities for externally funded projects (e.g. EU) extending official languages to all official languages in Member States (on a request-and-pay basis)

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 6/45 Objectives Operational forecasting up to 15 days ahead (including waves) R & D activities in forecast modelling Data archiving and related services Operational forecasts for the coming month and season Advanced NWP training Provision of supercomputer resources Assistance to WMO programmes Management of Regional Meteorological Data Communications Network (RMDCN)

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 7/45 Germany 20.20% Denmark 1.87% Belgium 2.71% United Kingdom 16.43% Turkey 2.38% Sweden 2.66% Finland 1.42% Switzerland 2.89% Portugal 1.29% Austria 2.16% Norway 2.13% Netherlands 4.61% Italy 12.66% Ireland 1.23% Greece 1.74% France 15.46% Spain 7.95% Main Revenue 2009 Member States contributions£35,593,300 Co-operating States contributions £847,400 Other Revenue£1,169,500 Total £37,610,200 GNI Scale 2009–2011 Luxembourg 0.23% Main Expenditure 2009 Staff£14,450,100 Leaving Allowances & Pensions£2,965,200 Computer Expenditure£15,690,600 Buildings£3,634,300 Supplies£870,000 Total£37,610,200 ECMWF Budget 2009

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 8/45 Organizational structure COUNCIL 18 Member States DIRECTOR Dominique Marbouty (France) (230) Meteorological Division Erik Andersson (Sweden) (42) Computer Division Isabella Weger (Austria) (65) Operations Walter Zwieflhofer (Austria) (111) Research Philippe Bougeault (France) (90) Administration Ute Dahremöller (Germany) (25) Data Division Jean-Noel Thepaut (France) (37) Model Division Martin Miller (UK) (24) Probabilistic Forecasting and Diagnostics Division Tim Palmer (UK) (19) Finance Committee 7 Members Technical Advisory Committee 18 Members Scientific Advisory Committee 12 Members Advisory Committee of Co-operating States 12 Members Advisory Committee on Data Policy 8-31 Members Policy Advisory Committee 7-18 Members

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 9/45 Principal Goal Maintain the current, rapid rate of improvement of its global, medium-range weather forecasting products, with particular effort on early warnings of severe weather events.

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 10/45 Principal Goal

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 11/45 Principal Goal

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 12/45 Complimentary Goals In addition to the principal goal of maintaining the current, rapid rate of improvements, the complimentary goals are: To improve the quality and scope of monthly and seasonal-to-interannual forecasts To enhance support to Member States national forecasting activities by providing suitable boundary conditions for limited-area models To deliver real-time analysis and forecasts of atmospheric composition To carry out climate monitoring through regular re-analyses of the Earth-system To contribute towards the optimization of the Global Observing System

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 13/45 Numerical Weather Prediction The behaviour of the atmosphere is governed by a set of physical laws Equations cannot be solved analytically, numerical methods are needed Additionally, knowledge of initial conditions of system necessary Incomplete picture from observations can be completed by data assimilation Interactions between atmosphere and land/ocean important

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 14/45 Strategy Development of a suitably comprehensive Earth-system assimilation capability to make best use of all available data Development of a suitably comprehensive and integrated high-resolution Earth-system modelling facility Development of the methodology of ensemble forecasting for medium-range and seasonal forecasting Operational delivery of an enhanced range of meteorological and associated products Maintenance and extension of the Centres scientific and technical collaborations

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 15/45 Research Department Data Division Jean-Noel Thepaut (France) (36) Model Division Martin Miller (UK) (26) Probabilistic Forecasting & Diagnostics Division Tim Palmer (UK) (18) Data Assimilation Lars Isaksen (Denmark) (15) Satellite Data Peter Bauer (France) (14) Re-Analysis Project Dick Dee (Netherlands) (3) Predictability & Diagnostics Tim Palmer (UK) (7) Seasonal Forecast Franco Molteni (Italy) (9) Numerical Aspects Agathe Untch (Germany) (7) Ocean Waves Peter Janssen (Netherlands) (3) Physical Aspects Anton Beljaars (Netherlands) (12)

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 16/45 ECMWFs operational analysis and forecasting system The comprehensive earth-system model developed at ECMWF forms the basis for all the data assimilation and forecasting activities. All the main applications required are available through one integrated computer software system (a set of computer programs written in Fortran) called the Integrated Forecast System or IFS Numerical scheme: T L 799L91 (799 waves around a great circle on the globe, 91 levels 0-80 km) semi-Lagrangian formulation 1,630,000,000,000,000 computations required for each 10-day forecast Time step: 12 minutes Prognostic variables: wind, temperature, humidity, cloud fraction and water/ice content, pressure at surface grid-points, ozone Grid: Gaussian grid for physical processes, ~25 km, 76,757,590 grid points

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 17/45 Deterministic model grid (T799)

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 18/45 EPS model grid (T399)

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 19/45 The wave model Coupled ocean wave model (WAM cycle4) 2 versions: global and regional (European Shelf & Mediterranean) numerical scheme: irregular lat/lon grid, 40 km spacing; spectrum with 30 frequencies and 24 directions coupling: wind forcing of waves every 15 minutes, two way interaction of winds and waves, sea state dep. drag coefficient extreme sea state forecasts: freak waves wave model forecast results can be used as a tool to diagnose problems in the atmospheric model Numerical Methods and Adiabatic Formulation of Models 30 March - 3 April 2009

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 20/45 Physical aspects, included in IFS Orography (terrain height and sub-grid-scale characteristics) Four surface and sub-surface levels (allowing for vegetation cover, gravitational drainage, capillarity exchange, surface / sub-surface runoff) Stratiform and convective precipitation Carbon dioxide (345 ppmv fixed), aerosol, ozone Solar angle Diffusion Ground & sea roughness Ground and sea-surface temperature Ground humidity Snow-fall, snow-cover and snow melt Radiation (incoming short-wave and out-going long-wave) Friction (at surface and in free atmosphere) Sub-grid-scale orographic drag Gravity waves and blocking effects Evaporation, sensible and latent heat flux Parameterization of Diabatic Processes 11 – 21 May 2009

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 21/45 Starting a forecast: The initial conditions

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 22/45 Data Assimilation Observations measure the current state, but provide an incomplete picture Observations made at irregularly spaced points, often with large gaps Observations made at various times, not all at analysis time Observations have errors Many observations not directly of model variables The forecast model can be used to process the observations and produce a more complete picture (data assimilation) start with previous analysis use model to make short-range forecast for current analysis time correct this background state using the new observations

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 23/45 Observations True state of the atmosphere Model variables, e.g. temperature 00 UTC 5 May Analysis BackgroundAnalysis 12 UTC 5 May 00 UTC 6 May 12 UTC 6 May 12-hour forecast Data Assimilation Every 12 hours ~ 60 million observations are processed to correct the 8 million numbers that define the models virtual atmosphere

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 24/45 Data Assimilation Observations measure the current state, but provide an incomplete picture Observations made at irregularly spaced points, often with large gaps Observations made at various times, not all at analysis time Observations have errors Many observations not directly of model variables The forecast model can be used to process the observations and produce a more complete picture (data assimilation) start with previous analysis use model to make short-range forecast for current analysis time correct this background state using the new observations The forecast model is very sensitive to small differences in initial conditions accurate analysis crucial for accurate forecast EPS used to represent the remaining analysis uncertainty Data Assimilation and Use of Satellite Data: April 2009

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 25/45 What is an ensemble forecast? Forecast time Temperature Complete description of weather prediction in terms of a Probability Density Function (PDF) Initial condition Forecast

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 26/45 Flow dependence of forecast errors If the forecasts are coherent (small spread) the atmosphere is in a more predictable state than if the forecasts diverge (large spread) 26 th June th June 1994

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 27/45 ECMWFs Ensemble Prediction Systems Account for initial uncertainties by running ensemble of forecasts from slightly different initial conditions singular vector approach to sample perturbations Model uncertainties are represented by stochastic physics Medium-range VarEPS (15-day lead) runs twice daily (00 and 12 UTC) day 0-10: T L 399L62 (0.45°, ~50km), 50+1 members day 9-15: T L 255L62 (0.7°, ~80km), 50+1 members Extended time-range EPS systems: monthly and seasonal forecasts coupled atmosphere-ocean model (IFS & HOPE) monthly forecast (4 weeks lead) runs once a week seasonal forecast (6 months lead) runs once a month see next eight days

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 28/45 Operations Department Computer Operations Sylvia Baylis (UK) (32) Network and Computer Security Rémy Giraud (France) (12) Systems Software Neil Storer (UK) (8) Meteorological Division Erik Andersson (Sweden) (37) Meteorological Applications Alfred Hofstadler (Austria) (9) Data & Services Baudouin Raoult (France) (8) Meteorological Operations David Richardson (UK) (13) Graphics Stefan Siemen (Germany) (6) User Support Umberto Modigliani (Italy) (6) Computer Division Isabella Weger (Austria) (68) Servers & Desktops Richard Fisker (Denmark) (9)

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 29/45 Current Computer Configuration

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 30/45 RMDCN Network

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 31/45 User support for special projects

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 32/45 ECMWF model suites Deterministic high-resolution global atmospheric model T L levels; range=10 days Medium-range ensemble prediction system T L 399 / T L levels; range=15 days control + 50 perturbed members Monthly forecast system T L level (atm.), 1.4 º x º, 29 vertical levels (ocean) 51-member ensemble; range=32 days Seasonal forecast system T L level (atm.), 1.4 º x º, 29 vertical levels (ocean) 41-member ensemble; range=6 months

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 33/45 Main operational suites

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 34/45 Data Dissemination

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 35/45 The ECMWF archive The largest NWP archive worldwide Built since ECMWF operations started in 1979 Holds more than 5 petabytes today 6 terabytes added daily Contains: All data used All analyses All forecasts Reanalyses Fully accessible on-line to Member States users

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 36/45 MARS

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 37/45 ECMWF Data Server A new service that gives researchers immediate and free access to datasets from ECMWF. DEMETER ERA-40 ERA-15 ENACT ENSEMBLES / GEMS - Monthly and daily data - Select area - GRIB or NetCDF - Plotting facility

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 38/45 Meteorological Operations Daily report (data and forecast monitoring, unusual events,…) Forecast verification Development of new products (EFI, tropical cyclones,…) Data and satellite monitoring User guides / meetings

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 39/45 Met Ops daily report

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 40/45 Monitoring of model performance

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 41/45 Product Development

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 42/45 Forecast Products: forecast (200 km resolution) issued 5 days a week

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 43/45 Forecast Products: 2009 wide range of forecast products from deterministic high resolution forecast to probabilistic EPS products

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 44/45 Products for end users

Training Course 2009 – NWP-PR: Operational and Research Activities at ECMWF 45/45 More Information…