Working Group on Nowcasting Research Slobodan Nickovic, Tom Keenan, Steve Goodman, Alan Seed, Thomas Haiden, Jenny Sun, Ted Nakazawa, Marianne Koenig, Jian Jie Wang, Augusto Pereira, Peter Li, Paul Joe and Jim Wilson Outline What is Nowcasting? WGNR Mandate WGNR Activities

WHAT IS NOWCASTING 0-6 hr forecasting by any method Originally defined by Browning for the 1st Nowcasting Conference in 1981 as: Nowcasting definition – description of the current state of the weather in detail and the prediction of changes in a few hours 0-6 hr forecasting by any method spatial scale of no more than a few kilometers (1-3 km) with frequent updates (5-10 min) Heavy emphasis on observations

It is much more than that! Highly application or user dependent! Nowcasts are precise in weather element, time and space! “Call to Action!” Extreme events!

WHY NOWCASTING? Construction Transportation Sporting events Concerts Only on the nowcasting time and space scale is there sufficient forecast skill that people will take actions to save life, property, and human inconvenience . Construction Transportation Sporting events Concerts Aviation

Convective weather are traditional operational application of nowcasting.

Aviation deicing application needs precipitation type, intensity to resolution of minutes and kilometers.

The nature of the turbulence is critical!

Ski Jump experiences ~7-8 min fluctuations of the up/down slope wind Upslope Transition from drainage to upslope Drainage 2 hour of 1 second data Graph courtesy of Andrew Teakles Bottom Top

Advance and Understanding the Science Technology Transfer Capacity Build Promote Nowcasting Among WMO Members

Firm Target development Forecast Demonstration Projects Sydney 2000, Beijing 2008 Research Development Projects Beijing 2008, SNOW-V10 Sochi 2014, Rio 2016 Developing Country Forecast Demonstration Project 1:1, Mentoring, Legacy of Research Capacity Lake Victoria, SE Asia Training S2K, Brasilia, South Africa, Micronesia B08, V10 Workshops Heuristic Nowcasting, NWP for Nowcasting Observations for Nowcasting Symposia WSN05, WSN09, WSN12 Verification Societal Impacts Firm Target development

Can a standard thermometer be used for nowcasting? HMP45C Standard Network Thermometer Inversion is ~here. HMP45C sees it higher on ascent and lower on descent

Dale Barker, Stephane Belair, Volker Wulfmeyer; Slobodan Nickovic (WMO), Jeanette Onvlee, Mathias Rotach, Jimy Dudhia, Peter Steinle, Hui Yu, Tiziana Paccagnella, Kazuo Saito

Activities WG-MWFR Help set up/involvement in RDP’s/FDP’s (COPS, FROST14, …) Promote mesoscale research cooperation / proposals on: Mesoscale modelling aspects: e.g. WGNE grey zone project Mesoscale DA experimentation: e.g. HYMEX data assimilation and predictability testbed LAM EPS experimentation Urban meteorology: e.g. TOMACS campaign Verification: e.g. JWGFVR ICP2 project Organize dedicated workshops on specific topics Other activities on: consider/promote worldwide standards for (routine) mesoscale model quality assessment inventory of available mesoscale training material/activities, gaps therein NWP in Nowcasting workshop, 24-26 October 2011

Ongoing and possible future RDP/FDP’s COPS: convective orographic precipitation study (nearly completed, final workshop spring 2012) FROST-14: high-resolution deterministic and probabilistic forecasting and nowcasting in support of Sochi 2014 Winter Olympics Participation in HYMEX TTM4: data assimilation and predictability Possible future RDP’s: TOMACS: Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convective Study: attempt to engage international community in an RDP Tropical cyclone modelling NWP in Nowcasting workshop, 24-26 October 2011

The Olympic Sochi Testbed (FROST-2014) Main objectives: Improve and exploit: Nowcasting techniques High-resolution analyses and forecasts for complex terrain/winter conditions Regional and convection-permitting EPS Improve understanding of physics of high impact weather phenomena in the region; Deliver forecasts in real time to Olympic forecasters and decision makers and quantify benefits of forecast improvement

TOMACS: Tokyo Metropolitan Area Convection Study: high density observation/modelling campaign over Tokyo ひょう あられ 氷晶 降水コア 雷 Polarmetric C band Doppler radar （MRI） Doppler Lidar 2D scan X band radar Surface rain gauge GPS receiver Lightning Detection 3D scan X band radar sondes Collaboration with MILT, NIED, NICT, OU, .. Moist air MW radiometer 約10km

/tmp/PreviewPasteboardItems/110911_TTM4a_Testbed_Wulfmeyer_Summary (dragged).pdf

Why this workshop? Mesoscale models moving into the nowcasting range: Rapid update cycling Assimilation of relevant spatially and temporally dense observations which are traditionally important to nowcasting (radar!) High-resolution modelling Convection-permitting ensembles under development Option for ensemble nowcasting? … but demands from nowcasting may be different from short-range forecasting To what extent is mesoscale NWP presently capable of meeting the needs of nowcasting, either directly or indirectly? Get nowcasting and mesoscale NWP communities together to define the way forward (set up research agenda) NWP in Nowcasting workshop, 24-26 October 2011

Expected outcome: Overview of state-of-the-art of present use of mesoscale NWP in support of nowcasting, directly and indirectly Identify the requirements of nowcasting on mesoscale NWP Inventory of possible ways forward to enhance the capability of mesoscale NWP to support nowcasting, and associated research Description of the main outcomes in a BAMS paper? Proposals for joint research activities to further the field? NWP in Nowcasting workshop, 24-26 October 2011

Workshop Expectations Proposals to advance the science of NWP for Nowcasting Hi resolution (radar) data assimilation RDP/FDP observations Radar data assimilation RDP