The 4 th Session of the JSC for CAS OPAG on WWRP, Geneva Switzerland, Feb, 2011 Yihong DUAN WGTMR On the Review of the Work Development and Future Plan for Tropical Meteorology Research

Contents 1.Activities 2.Projects and publications 3.Plan for next two years

Activities: Workshops and conferences The 2nd International workshop on TC landfall Processes (IWTCLP- ) The 3rd International Conference on QPE/QPF and Hydrology The 7th International workshop on Tropical cyclone (IWTC-VII)

The 2 nd International workshop on TC landfall Processes (IWTCLP- ) Co-sponsors TMR, TCP, STI/CMA, 973 Project of MOST/China, NSF/China Scientific Objective to get better understanding of tropical cyclone landfalling processes and its mechanism and to improve landfall forecasting technique.

IWTCLP- (Contd) Meeting Size 82 Participants (researchers and forecasters) from 17 Countries and regions where affected by TC Landfall. Venue and Time Shanghai, China in Oct, 2009 Meeting Co-Chair Lianshou Chen Russell Elsberry

IWTCLP- (Contd) Meeting Topics: Observations and Field Program Track, Structure and Intensity Changes Near the Coast Topographic and Land Surface Effect, Especially on Rainfall Physical Processes and Energy Transfers During the ET Process High Impact Weather Events Forecast Techniques and Early Warning Systems for TC Landfall

Photo for the opening ceremony of IWTCLP II in Shanghai, China

Brief summary of IWTCLP II 65 papers related to landfall tropical cyclone rainfall, structure and intensity change, and terrain effect on tropical cyclone rainfall and P-PARC/TCS-08 were presented over the plenary meeting, The Typhoon Landfalling Forecast Demonstration Project was proposed. It aims to improve the typhoon forecast capabilities and to give better service towards Shanghai EXPO Finally, it was endorsed by WMO/CAS-15, in Korea in 2009.

The 3 rd International Conference on QPE/QPF and Hydrology Co-sponsors TMR, FVR, TCP, NUIST, MOST and NSF/China Scientific Objectives To improve the understanding and forecast techniques of QPE/QPF and hydrological prediction with an emphasis on rainfall caused by tropical cyclones and monsoons To bring the forecasters and researchers together to review the progress of research and forecast, to discuss and exchange research achievements and operational forecast needs

The 3 rd International Conference on QPE/QPF and Hydrology (Contd) Meeting Size 101 Participants (researchers and forecasters) from 22 Countries and Regions Venue and Time Nanjing, China from Oct, 2010 Meeting Co-Chairs Lianshou Chen (CAMS/CMA,CHINA) Barbara Brown (NCAR,USA) Yihong Duan (NMC/CMA,CHINA) Chungu Lu (NSF, USA)

The 3 rd International Conference on QPE/QPF and Hydrology (Contd) Meeting Topics High impact precipitation events, related to tropical Cyclones, monsoons and severe storms; QPE and remote sensing observations; Hydrologic prediction and coupled hydrology- atmosphere-land models; Verification of QPF Data assimilation for precipitation forecasting system; Precipitation variability and climate change; QPF

The 7 th International workshop on Tropical cyclone (IWTC-VII) Cosponsors TMR, TCP, Meteo France Scientific Objective to examine current knowledge, forecasting and research trends on tropical cyclones from an integrated global perspective and to report on these aspects and to offer recommendations for future forecasting studies and research with special regard to the varying needs of different regions.

IWTC-VII (Contd) Meeting Size 128 Participants from 42 TC affected countries and regions Meeting venue and Time San Denis Island, La Reunion, France; Nov, 2010 Meeting Chairs Chris Velden (U. of Wisconsin, USA) Jeff Kepert (BOM, Australia)

Groupe Photo for all IWTC-VII participants San Denis Island, La Reunion, France; Nov, 2010

IWTC-VII (Contd) MAJOR TOPICS: Structure and Intensity Change, Formation and Extra-tropical Transition, TCs in Intraseasonal to Climate Time Scales, Disaster Risks, Mitigation, Warning Systems, Societal Impacts KEYNOTE LECTURES Surface Wind Structure and the Related Pressure- Wind Relationship Probabilistic Forecasting and Applications for User Risk Assessment QPE/QPF and Related Inland Flood Modeling/Applications

IWTC-VII (Contd) SPECIAL FOCUS PRESENTATIONS Targeted Observations for Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasting Ocean Field Experiments (ITOP) and New Research Findings THORPEX/TIGGE Applications to Tropical Cyclone Motion and Forecasting IBTrACS Activities and Updates Overview and Operational Products Expected from HFIP Application of the Dvorak Technique and Resolving Interagency Intensity Differences PANEL DISCUSSION Future Research Directions for Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change

Some accomplishments from IWTC VII 59 recommendations, included 12 high priority recommendations for future WMO activities, forecaster needs, and research opportunities. A new summary statement of Tropical cyclone and climate change was issued for WMO and NMHSs use during the workshop IWTC VII final report will be on the WWRP website in Feb 2011.

Monsoon Data Centers Center for Monsoon Field Campaign Legacy Data Sets (Colorado State University-CSU, Prof. Richard Johnson) Data Center for Monitoring and Assessment of Extreme Weather and Climate Events in Asia (East Asia Monsoon Activity Center - EAMAC Dr. Song Lianchun) Monsoon Radar Meteorology Data Information Center (Hydrospheric Atmospheric Research Center/Nagoya University Japan, Prof. Hiroshi Uyeda)

Center for Monsoon Field Campaign Legacy Data Sets The project website is at the following field campaigns are included on this website: ATEX, BOMEX, GATE, WMONEX, ASTEX, TOGA COARE, SCSMEX, SALLJEX, NAME, NAMMA, and TiMREX The upper-air sounding datasets for TOGA COARE, SCSMEX, NAME and TiMREX have undergone numerous checks and corrections to enhance their quality.

Data Center for Monitoring and Assessment of Extreme Weather and Climate Events in Asia( CEEMA) In 2010 the Center for Extreme (Weather and Climate) Events Monitoring in Asia (CEEMA) was established by the East Asian Monsoon Activity Center A website for CEEMA has been established at &show_product=1 &show_product=1 An initial Objective Identification Technique for Regional Extreme Weather and Climate Events (OITREE) has been developed and applied in China.

Frequency variations of drought events during in China based on the OITREE method the affected area with intensity distribution of the 2009/2010 Southwest China drought event based on the OITREE method

WGTMR Relevant Field Program T-PARC/TCS 08 ITOP/TCS 10 YOTC SWICE PREDICT GRIP IFEX HFIP CEATIC Western North Pacific Ditto South Indian Ocean North Atlantic East and South China Sea

Intense observation area China Experiment on Abnormal Typhoon In Coastal Area (CEATIC)

Wind profiler Wind tower GPS Sounding Buoy station Wind profiler Microwave radiometer Wind profiler with RUSS Raindrops spectrometer CEATIC

TC Name Molave Goni Morakot Koppu CEATIC Target TC in 2009

Wind profile for TC Molave 2009

Buoy station Observation for TC Molave 2009 Max. SST decrease 6 pressure Effective wave heights Wind Effective wave high cycle

Projects and Publications Progress of FDP/RDP Project Publications

WWRP/TCP Typhoon Landfall Forecast Demonstration Project (TLFDP) Objective To demonstrate the performance of the most advanced forecasting techniques for landfalling typhoons. Action Taken Training Workshop organized in May 2010 (Shanghai) Real-time collection/display systems of forecast products developed Real time verification system set-up Planned Action To open the project website ( To provide real-time products to all TC Members To develop a total verification system Courtesy of Dr Koji Kuroiwa

Training Workshop on Operational Tropical Cyclone Forecast, May, Shanghai Progresses of Progresses of TLFDP 11 lecturers from 9 institutions Trainees: 20 forecasters from meteorological bureaus of East China Region

List of forecast products collected in real time and the way of collection Yellow: GTS. Red: FTP. Green: FTP + CMA Intranet. Blue: CMA Intranet. Typhoon Forecast Products Provider TrackIntensityWind Radii2-D Gridded Surface wind 2-D Gridded Precipitation 3-D Gridded Model Output Official forecast NMC/CMA Analyses RSMC Tokyo Analyses HKO NTC/KMA JTWC Global model NMC/CMA RSMC Tokyo ECMWF Regional model NTC/KMA (unavailable yet) STI_GRAPES GZ Regional model STI_WARMS Ensemble prediction Participants of TIGGE TC EPRDP Concensus prediction STI_CONS_OFFICIAL STI_CONS_MODEL Statistical prediction NHC_Wind Probability STI_TCSP STI_SIZE STI_ANALOG(stations) HK_QMORPH Courtesy of Dr Hui YU

Real time verification system (Track forecast verificaiton) Courtesy of Dr Hui YU

Real time verification system (Intensity forecast verificaiton) Courtesy of Dr Hui YU

WWRP/TCP NW-Pacific TC Track Ensemble Forecast Research Project (THORPEX-Asia) Objective To examine the utility of ensemble forecasts for the operational typhoon forecasting. Action Taken Website was established at JMA/MRI ID&PW provided to Typhoon Committee Members First improvement made to the Website Planned Action Training for better utilization of the products Survey of the utility and further improvement of the products Courtesy of Dr Koji Kuroiwa

Publications Meeting report of the IWM-IV held in Beijing October , 2008 in title of BRIDGING WEATHER AND CLIMATE IN RESEARCH AND FORECAST OF GLOBAL MONSOON SYSTEM will be published by BAMS in March 2011 Tropical cyclone and Climate Change, published in NATURE GEOSCIENCE, Feb 2010, Expert Team on Climate Impacts on Tropical Cyclones A book of Global Perspectives on tropical cyclone: From Science to Mitigation (From IWTC VI Edited by Johnny Chan, The Meeting Chair, published in 2010) A book of The Global Monsoon System: Research and Forecast 2nd Edition (From IWM-IV, Edited by C.P. Chang, the Meeting Chair; will be published soon)

Preprint of Workshop and Conference

Other support to WMO NHMs A web version of A Global Tropical Cyclone Forecast Guide is nearing completion A WMO website has been established for seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity

Plan for next two years ( ) Implementation of Typhoon Landfall FDP (with TCP) Implementation of NW Pacific Ensemble Forecast Project (with TCP, THORPEX) TMR WG meeting (Oct 2011, China) Workshop on Monsoon Heavy Rainfall RDP (Oct 2011, China) Monsoon Training Workshop on Heavy Precipitation (Oct 2011, China) IWM-V (2012, Malaysia) International Workshop on Dvorak Technique (with TCP, Apr 2011, Honolulu, US)

Thank you for your attention

CAS Strategic Thrust II to advance scientific research and application as well as development and implementation of technology, and specifically: II.3 -- Enhanced capabilities of NMHSs to produce better predictions and warnings; II.4 --Enhanced capabilities to use weather observations; and II.5 -- Enhanced capabilities to draw benefits from the global research capacity.