Committed to Connecting the World Interconnection charging models in a national broadband environment 4th Generation regulation: driving digital communications ahead 13 th Global Symposium for Regulators 4th Generation regulation: driving digital communications ahead Warsaw, Poland, 3-5 July 2013 David Rogerson ITU Consultant The views expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the ITU or its Membership.

Committed to Connecting the World Three influential men you probably dont recognise 2 Sadi Carnot ( the father of thermodaymics) James Joule (proved the theory of conservation of energy) William Thomson (Lord Kelvin) (coined the term thermodynamics)

Committed to Connecting the World What have these men to do with broadband interconnection? Their work lay behind the fundamental truths that describe physical systems in terms of base elements such as heat, energy and matter. Their work revolutionised 19 th century physics and became known as The Laws of Thermodynamics. An equivalent set of Laws of IP Interconnection may be postulated to describe fundamental truths about broadband telecommunications systems. These Laws challenge received wisdom and may revolutionise 21 st century interconnection charging models for the national broadband environment. 3

Committed to Connecting the World The proposed Laws of IP Interconnection * 4 0. If network A is interconnected with B, and B is interconnected with C, then network A is in effect interconnected with C 1. Within any interconnected system, profitability cannot be increased without an increase in price or usage, no matter how fast IP is installed. 2. Within any IP system, the complexity always increases with time. 3. The IP world will gradually move towards a state in which market power is removed. * Source: Rogerson D, Horrocks J, Hin J, Lavender T: IP Interconnect: Commercial, Technical and Regulatory Dynamics; Ovum (2002)

Committed to Connecting the World Is any-to-any connectivity necessary? Regulators set a requirement for any-to-any connectivity (A2A) to protect voice telephony users in a network system. But the Internet has shown us that: A voluntary system of peering and transit can work equally well Over time the model can mutate to the benefit of all – e.g. regional peering and IXPs Regulators should extend A2A beyond voice services if and only if three tests are met: There is supply-side dominance There are substantial network externalities The benefits of any-to-any outweigh the costs. 5 The Zero th Law suggests that the market will find alternative arrangements that are just as effective as the regulatory imposition of A2A.

Committed to Connecting the World Should NGN interconnection be regulated? NGNs have not replaced circuit-switched networks as the principle 21 st century service-delivery mechanism. They may still need some form of regulation: Prevent monopoly rents from broadband infrastructure Allow service development in competition with the Internet Remain neutral as to technology (TDM or IP) for interconnection. 6 NGNs fell foul of the First Law in that they, unlike the Internet, have failed to deliver the service growth necessary for sustained profitability.

Committed to Connecting the World Are minimum QoS standards needed? There is a rapid increase in number and variety of market players, applications, traffic levels and interconnection relationships. Regulation needs to keep things simple as what can go wrong will go wrong. 7 The Second Law argues that complexity will always increase over time; regulation must not add unnecessarily to that burden. On QoS regulatory forbearance is required: It is difficult to set economically optimum QoS standards via regulation Retain minimum (benchmark) standards for circuit-switched voice Encourage industry to define and apply suitable standards for IP networks

Committed to Connecting the World Can dominance be fully overcome? Traditional regulation has focused on curbing market dominance … but experience (and the 2 nd law) tell us this is an almost impossible task Inexorable falls in termination rates have not curbed dominance The Internet has shown us another model – dynamic markets find their own equilibrium over time, without regulatory intervention. There is increasing evidence that interconnection of broadband networks can do the same (e.g. recent agreement between Google and Orange) Regulatory forbearance (and ex-post intervention where necessary) is generally the way forward 8 The Third Law suggests that, absent regulation, the broadband market will move towards a position of near-perfect competition (with one exception …)

Committed to Connecting the World Regulation of infrastructure access 9 Example of submarine cable access Regulation must strike a careful balance to stimulate demand as well as investment

Committed to Connecting the World Conclusions Allow the market to establish interconnection arrangements within a principle of any-to-any connectivity. Do not extend circuit-switched regulation to IP networks unless justified and proportionate. Keep interconnection regulation as simple as possible to avoid unintended consequences. Establish bill and keep or free peering wherever possible Do not mandate minimum quality of service standards, other than those which apply to circuit-switched voice telephony Increasingly focus on principles of transparency and non- discrimination. Regulate primarily on an ex-post basis. Retain ex-ante cost-based regulation for broadband infrastructure access (and backhaul in remote areas). 10