Conference Call 10/21/08 Federal Reserve: Industrial Production through Sep -2.8% (last decline like that since 73, 74) may be (in part) because of hurricanes.

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Conference Call 10/21/08 Federal Reserve: Industrial Production through Sep -2.8% (last decline like that since 73, 74) may be (in part) because of hurricanes -1.2% for retail sales, which is an accurate forecast for 3 rd q Housing starts -6.3% 3 rd q and 4 th q will be weak Good news: energy prices -1.9% Lower energy costs, at current fuel prices, it adds 75bil over next 2 quarters that will be available for consumers to spend., gas prices are like a tax cut for the consumer. 2 stage plan: buy NOW : Hypermarket food centers, packed foods and meats, healthcare services, household products, biotech, food distributers Start to add traditional plunge industries: Fin services, cons durables, and tech stocks “the last 2 weeks is as ugly as a stock market can get”

Building Permits

Initial Jobless Claims

Housing Starts

CPI YoY

CPI YoY ex. Food and Energy

PPI YoY

PPI YoY ex. Food and Energy