Behavioural decision research Wändi Bruine de Bruin Centre for Decision Research, Leeds University Business School Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University

Overview Introduction to Centre for Decision Research Understanding and improving real-world decisions Example projects Conclusions

Overview Introduction to Centre for Decision Research Understanding and improving real-world decisions Example projects Conclusions

Our Centre for Decision Research aims to understand people’s real-world decisions and test practical strategies for improvement We study how individuals make decisions about finance, health, food, sustainability, and so on We aim to provide evidence-based advice for practitioners and policy makers Our interdisciplinary centre spans the business school, health institute, earth & environment, engineering, transport studies Our links include Carnegie Mellon University, RAND Corporation, US Federal Reserve, Dutch Central Bank and others. Our approach to behavioural decision making

Overview Introduction to behavioural decision making Understanding and improving real-world decisions Example projects Conclusions

Overview Introduction to behavioural decision making Understanding and improving real- world decisions Example projects Conclusions

A challenge for experts Experts in different domains aim to understand and improve how people make decisions However, experts often –Use wording that is too difficult –Fail to understand the difficulties people face when making decisions As a result, their interventions are often found to be ineffective (if they are tested)

Example: Using difficult wording Shelter in place Stay inside

Example: Omitting relevant information

1. Expert model: How should people make the decision? –Conduct interdisciplinary literature review –Convene expert panel 2. Lay model: How do people make the decision? –Conduct interviews to identify decision-relevant beliefs, barriers, and wording –Conduct surveys to examine prevalence of beliefs and associations with behaviour 3. Intervention: How can we inform people’s decisions? –Address beliefs and skills in wording people understand 4. Evaluation: Does the intervention work? –Randomized controlled study to test effect on understanding and behaviour Decision Research Approach

1. Expert model: How should people make the decision? –Conduct interdisciplinary literature review –Convene expert panel 2. Lay model: How do people make the decision? –Conduct interviews to identify decision-relevant beliefs, barriers, and wording –Conduct surveys to examine prevalence of beliefs and associations with behaviour 3. Intervention: How can we inform people’s decisions? –Address beliefs and skills in wording people understand 4. Evaluation: Does the intervention work? –Randomized controlled study to test effect on understanding and behaviour Modified Decision Research Approach

Overview Introduction to behavioural decision making Understanding and improving real-world decisions Example projects Conclusions

Overview Introduction to behavioural decision making Understanding and improving real-world decisions Example projects Conclusions

Sexually Transmitted Infections Goal: To reduce sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in female adolescents Background: Most sex education is ineffective and repeats basic facts Interviews and surveys: Female adolescents know about STIs and how to prevent them -- but lack important skills such as how to communicate with their partners Intervention: A DVD teaching negotiation skills rather than just basic facts reduced STIs compared to controls Take-home message: People may need more than just basic facts (Bruine de Bruin et al., HIV/AIDS Prevention in Children and Youth, 2007; Downs et al., Social Science & Medicine, 2004) 15

Carbon Capture and Sequestration Goal: To inform people’s perceptions of CCS Background: Public resistance to CCS may stop its widespread deployment Interviews and surveys: When people receive information about the risks and benefits of CCS, they focus on its risks and want to discuss alternatives such as wind and solar Intervention: Providing about the risks and benefits of all low-carbon electricity generation technologies reduces resistance to CCS Take-home message: People may need information about the risks and benefits of all available options (Fleishman et al., Risk Analysis, 2010; Palmgren et al., Environmental Science and Technology, 2004) 16

17 Understanding and improving financial decision making by individuals in financial distress (funded by EU Marie Curie Fellowship) Understanding public preparedness for extreme weather events (funded by UK Department of Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs) Understanding older consumers’ decisions about health and retirement (funded by the US National Institute on Ageing) Helping consumers to save electricity through designing better electricity bills and feedback (funded by US Department of Energy) Helping kidney patients to make better treatment decisions through decision aids (funded by FIMDM) Ongoing projects

People’s decision problems may involve lack of information, lack of other skills, or difficulties in understanding experts’ recommendations, among other things Understanding how people make decisions is an important step towards designing effective interventions Understanding how people make decisions requires input from multiple academic disciplines and domain experts Conclusions

Bruine de Bruin, W., Downs, J.S., & Fischhoff, B. (2007). Adolescents’ thinking about the risks and benefits of sexual behavior. In: Lovett, M.C. & Shah, P. (Eds.) Thinking with data. Mahwah, NJ: Erlbaum, pp Bruine de Bruin, W., Downs, J.S., Fischhoff, B. & Palmgren, C. (2007). Development and evaluation of an HIV/AIDS knowledge measure for adolescents focusing on misunderstood concepts. HIV/AIDS Prevention in Children and Youth, 8, Downs, J.S., Murray, P.J., Bruine de Bruin, W., White, J.P., Palmgren, C. & Fischhoff, B. (2004). Interactive Video Behavioral Intervention to Reduce Adolescent Females' STD Risk: A Randomized Controlled Trial. Social Science & Medicine, 59, Fischhoff, B., Downs, J.S. & Bruine de Bruin, W. (1998). Adolescent Vulnerability: A framework for behavioral interventions. Applied and Preventive Psychology, 7, Fischhoff, B., Bruine de Bruin, W., Güvenç, U., Brilliant, L. & Caruso, D. (2006). Analyzing disaster risks and plans: An avian flu example. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 33, Fleishman, L., Bruine de Bruin, W., Morgan, M.G. (2010). Informed public preferences for electricity portfolios with CCS and other low-carbon technologies. Risk Analysis, 30, Krishnamurti, T., Schwartz, D., Davis, A., Fischhoff, B., Bruine de Bruin, W., Lave, L. & Wang, J. (2012). Preparing for smart grid technologies: A behavioral decision research approach to understanding consumer expectations about smart meters. Energy Policy, 41, Morgan, M.G., Fischhoff, B., Bostrom, A., & Atman C. Risk communication: The mental models approach. New York, NY: Cambridge University Press. Palmgren, C., Morgan, M.G., Bruine de Bruin, W. & Keith, D. (2004). Initial public perceptions of deep geological and oceanic disposal of carbon dioxide. Environmental Science & Technology, 38, Relevant references