AREP GAW Section 3 Introduction and Overview of Course

AREP GAW Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course 2 Introduction – Forecasting Programs The process of developing, operating, and improving an air quality (AQ) forecasting program Need for an AQ Forecast Develop a Program Operate the Program Revise the Program Data Collection Forecast Preparation Forecast Communication

AREP GAW Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course 3 Overview of Course Course Content: 1.Acknowledgments 2.Executive Overview 3.Introduction and Overview of Course 4.What Are We Forecasting? 5.How Are Forecasts Used? 6.Health Effects 7.Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution 8.Pollutant Monitoring 9.Pollutant Lifecycles and Trends 10.Air Pollution Meteorology 11.Case Studies of Episodes 12.Air Quality Forecasting Tools 13.Developing a Forecasting Program 14.Daily Air Quality Forecast Operations 15.References

AREP GAW Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course 4 Audience for Course Decision makers –Overview of air quality forecasting –General steps to develop/improve an air quality forecasting program Meteorologists and forecasters –Overview of air quality emissions and chemistry –Discussion of how weather affects air quality –Discussion of tools used to forecast air quality Air quality scientists –Discussion of how weather affects air quality

AREP GAW Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course 5 This course offers the necessary knowledge to develop, implement, and evaluate a forecasting program. Understand the meteorological processes that affect pollution concentrations Learn more about meteorological and air quality forecasting products Learn how to use and evaluate meteorological forecast data (case studies) Discuss the tools available for air quality forecasting Discuss how to develop, operate, and maintain a forecasting program Structure of Course – Objectives

AREP GAW Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course 6 Structure of Course – Design Goals Focus. Forecasting air qualityparticulate matter (PM), ozone, other pollutants. Similarity. Air quality is strongly influenced by weather conditions and emissions sources. Weather conditions and emission types are generally similar, but have minor differences among countries. Practical. Beyond theory, the course contains practical advice and references to examples, tools, and methods. Gateway. The course workbook is a gateway to additional resources. Evolve. The course will improve in time through participants feedback.

AREP GAW Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course 7 Introduction (1 of 3) Forecasting Philosophy Understand how the system operates –Determine how meteorological processes influence air pollution in an area –Forecast the processes that affect air quality, then predict the air quality Obtain better results by using multiple forecasting tools –No silver bullet –Several tools provide a consensus forecast

AREP GAW Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course 8 Global Space: 4,000 km – 20,000 km Time: weeks Synoptic Space: 400 km – 4,000 km Time: 1 day – 1 week Mesoscale Space: 10 km – 400 km Time: 1 hr – 1 day Urban Space: 5 km - 50 km Time: 1 hr - 4 hr Neighborhood Space: 500 m - 5 km Time: 1 min – 1 hr Introduction (2 of 3) Global Synoptic Mesoscale Urban Neighborhood Predicting weather (and air quality) requires examining information for several different spatial and time scales.

AREP GAW Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course 9 Introduction (3 of 3) Forecasting Process Predict weather Predict weathers effect on emissions and chemistry Estimate AQ concentration Convert to Air Index for the public Clouds= reduced sunlight Slows photochemistry O 3 = low Good AQI Ozone Cold Inversion traps wood-burning emissions PM 2.5 = High Unhealthy API PM

AREP GAW Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course 10 Exercise Tell us about your experience and expectations for the course: –Name –Agency or organization –Your position (job title) –Experience in forecasting air quality –Expectations for the course

AREP GAW Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course 11 Day-by-Day Guide Day 1 (Monday) - Morning –1. Acknowledgements –2. Executive Overview –3. Introduction and Overview of Course –4. What are we forecasting 4. Exercise: Survey of audience –Break ( ) –5. How are forecasts used? –6. Health Effects

AREP GAW Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course 12 Day-by-Day Guide Day 1 (Monday) - Afternoon –7. Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution Exercise: Make ozone in a bottle Exercise: Unit conversion (ppb to µg/m3) –Break ( ) –8. Pollutant Monitoring Exercise – Identify urban/rural sites from time- series plots more –Lunch

AREP GAW Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course 13 Day-by-Day Guide Day 2 (Tuesday) – Morning –9. Pollutant Lifecycles and Trends Exercise: Examine time series Exercise: IER model of ozone smog –10. Air Pollution Meteorology –Break –10. Air Pollution Meteorology (continued) –Lunch

AREP GAW Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course 14 Day-by-Day Guide Day 2 (Tuesday) – Afternoon Exercise »Interpreting Radiosondes »Mixing height calculator »Using HYSPLIT »Flowchart –Map Discussion –Break ( ) –11. Case Study Episodes

AREP GAW Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course 15 Day-by-Day Guide Day 3 (Wednesday) – Morning –11. Case Study Episodes (as needed) –12. Air Quality Forecasting Tools –Break ( ) –12. Air Quality Forecasting Tools (continued)

AREP GAW Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course 16 Day-by-Day Guide Day 4 (Thursday) –12a. Madrid Forecast Model –Break ( ) –12a. Madrid Forecast Model –Lunch ( ) –12b. Background and setup of TAPM –Questions about forecasting tools/methods

AREP GAW Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course 17 Day-by-Day Guide Day 5 (Friday) –13. Developing a Forecasting Program –Break ( ) Exercise: Forecast verification. –14. Daily Weather Forecast Operations –Review of TAPM results –Lunch ( ) –Review of TAPM results (continued) –Analysis of participants data –Questions and individual training

AREP GAW Section 3 – Introduction and Overview of Course 18 Summary Define the audience (decision makers, meteorologists, forecasters, and air quality scientists) Obtain better results by using multiple forecasting tools Understand how the system operates Examine spatial and time scales (global, synoptic, mesoscale, urban, and neighborhood) Develop a forecasting process –Predict weather and its effect on emissions and chemistry –Estimate concentration and convert to an Air Index