Sustainability Freshman Inquiry Jan. 20, 2011 Jeff Fletcher See also: Daily Log PageDaily Log Page

Logistics Any questions about Carbon Footprint Reports? – – – Extra Credit Opportunities –2nd annual PSU Earth Day Festival Planning Thursday, January 20th, 1:00pm in SMITH 338 Read Kolbert Chapters 5, 6, and 7 for next Tuesday –Reading notes Movie Night is TONIGHT at 7:30, Ondine lobby Eco-Reps for Residence Halls

Possible Models Group Assignments –Thermohaline Circulation –Significance of Comma Butterflies –Golden Toads –Mosquitoes (Wyeomyia smithii)

Groups Activity In your groups, discuss the following points about your assigned model organism or computer model: –What is the main point illustrated by this model? (e.g. this is an expansion of what was on the quiz) –What are the details of your model system that illustrate this main point? –How is this main point connected to Global Warming? –Is it a good model for illustrating the main point? Can you think of a better one? EVERY member of each group should take their own handwritten notes and be prepare to present for two minutes in a future group on this topic.

Catastrophe: Group Follow-up Thermohaline Circulation (N. Atlantic) (worldwide)Thermohaline Circulationworldwide –8,200 years ago thermohaline disruption?thermohaline disruption Comma Butterfly of England Golden Toad (Monteverde Cloud Forest)Golden ToadMonteverde Cloud Forest Wyeomyia smithii MosquitoMosquito –Video ( ston_globe_29_apr_2007.mov)Video ston_globe_29_apr_2007.mov –Polar Bears vs. Mosquitoes—who is doing better and why? –Phenotypic Plasticity vs. Natural Selection

How Do We Decide What to Believe in Science? Bags of poker chips A, B, and C –Represent differences or are they the same? –Could be analogy for: Deaths: with medicine A, vs. placebo B, vs. no treatment C White chips are correct preditions of coin flips by blindfolded ESP “experts” A, chance B, a pet sea lion C temperature without human CO2 A, temp. with human CO2 B, temp.with human CO2 plus carbon offsets In pairs: –How would you decide whether you can claim that A, B, and C are the same or different? –Be as precise (quantitative) as you can

Key Ideas About Systems What makes a system? –Elements and Relations –order vs. disorder –system vs. environment Systems States and Dynamics –Equilibria, Stability Positive and Negative Feedbacks –Non-linear dynamics Chaos Theory, Catastrophe Theory –Emergence –Structure Open vs. Closed Matter, Energy, Information

Systems can be in different states For instance, temperature or composition of atmospheric system How systems change states over time is called dynamics Equilibria –Stable vs. UnstableStable vs. Unstable –Static vs. Dynamic –Positive and Negative Feedbacks (aphids)aphids Exponential growth example of + feedback Homeostasis example of - feedback

Complex Systems Yield Surprises Most models of systems are linear –Change in state predicted to be proportional to change in inputs Most real and complex systems are non-linear –Systems with feedback are often unpredictable –Small causes can have big effects Butterfly effect from Chaos theoryButterfly effect Chaos Demos Catastrophe theory: state is not reversible by reversing causeCatastrophe theory Logistic Equation: x t+1 = r x t (1-x t )Logistic Equation –Current financial crisis is great example Emergence