Central egency for public mobilization and statistics

CENSUS EVALUATION POST-ENUMERATION SURVEY

Measure accuracy (quality) of census data Purpose of Census Evaluation Coverage error – census omission and duplication of households and persons Content error – nonresponse, response errors, coding errors, etc.

Objectives of Post-Enumeration Survey Measure both census coverage and content errors. PES evaluation results useful for improving future census operation. PES results assist census data users in understanding relative magnitude of error. PES estimates may be used for adjusting the census population figures and population projections

PES Methodology Independent enumeration of household and population in sample of areas. - De jure or de facto enumeration, depending on type of census enumeration. Two-Way matching of PES and census from for sample areas.

PES Methodology (continued) Reconciliation visit following matching. Dual-system estimation methodology - Based on two independent sources of population data – census and PES.

Ideal to conduct PES about 2 to 4 weeks following the census, to avoid much movement of population and recall error Important to allow sufficient time to ensure all census materials are returned from field - To ensure independence between census and PES enumeration Timing of PES

Movement of Population between Census and PES Non-movers – persons in same household at time of census and PES In-movers – persons who moved into a household between the time of the census and the PES Out-movers – persons who move out of a household between the census and the PES

- Enumeration of non-movers and out-movers - Advantage – out-movers easier to match - Disadvantage – more difficult to obtain information for out-movers Enumeration Procedures for Moving Population Procedure A – identifies composition of household at time of census

- Enumeration of non-movers and in-movers - Advantage – in-movers easier to match - Disadvantage – more difficult to match in-movers to census records at previous residence in different area Enumeration Procedures for Moving Population (Continued) Procedure B – identifies all current household members at time of PES

- Enumeration of non-movers, in-movers and out- movers - Match non-movers and out-movers to obtain match rate for movers - Count number of in-movers - Apply match rate for out-movers to number of in- movers - Advantage – out-movers easier to match, in-movers easier to identify; less bias than Procedure A, less cost than Procedure B - Procedure C used for Egypt PES Procedure C – combination of Procedures A and B Enumeration Procedures for Moving Population (Continued)

- Establish geographic domains, age groups for analysis - Example: geographic domains for Egypt PES Cairo, other large cities (Alexandria, Port-Said, Suez), region (Upper and Lower Egypt) by other urban, rural - Identify items to be evaluated for content error: most important characteristics subject to response error - Generally avoid items which require detailed coding such as industry and occupation Defining Objectives for PES Coverage error evaluation Content error measurement

- Household identification, including address - Person characteristics – name, sex, age, relationship to head of household, marital status - Whether person was in household at time of census Select items from census from required for matching household and persons Information to establish moving status following census Items included for content error analysis Shaded areas in PES questionnaire to enter census responses for matched persons PES Questionnaire Design

Stratified area sample Sampling frame – list of census enumeration areas (EAs) or segments P-sample – households enumerated in PES within sample segments E-sample – households enumerated by census within same sample segments Sample Design for PES

- Cairo, other large cities (Alexandria, Port-Said, Suez), region (Upper and Lower Egypt) by other urban, rural - Geographic ordering of EAs with systematic provides implicit stratification - Depends on precision requirements for domains of analysis - Minimum number of sample segments for each domain of analysis – ideally, 30 sample segments Stratification – geographic domains of analysis Sample size and allocation Sample Design for PES (continued)

The first : for the 1968 population census which carried out by (PSRC) population studies and research center at CAPMAS Egypt has done (PES) Twiss The second : for the 2006 population census which carried out by cabinet (information and decision support center (IDSC)) The two (PES) done by the same concepts, procedures, sample design

Design The design has six domains. each sample PSU divided into segments each regiment size has 100 households. The (PSUs) primary sampling units – shiakh has in urban area, villages in rural area. all households enumerated within sample segments.

Matching Operation Two- way matching between household and person records in P-sample (PES) and E-sample (census) Matching procedures should be tested and described very clearly in matching manual. Matching rules should be designed to minimize net matching error rate.

Reconciliation Visit Follow up on persons enumerated in the census but not the PES, to determine whether they were correctly enumerated. Verify cases of possible matches. Determine final match status.

Dual System Estimation Based on assumption of independence between census and PES. Depends on two-way matching between census and PES. Includes estimate of population missing from both census and PES.

Dual System Estimation Model Census TotalPES MissedIncluded N t - N c NcNc NtNt Total N p- MMNpNp Included N’ cp N c - MN t - N p Missed

Dual System Estimate of Total population N t = ــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ = ــــــــــــــــ N c x N p NcNc RMRM M R M = ـــــــــــــــــــــــــــــ = match rate M NPNP 1 - R M = census omission rate