15th Annual Integrated Learning - School to Career Conference Other Ways to Win: Counseling Teens in Uncertain Times Kenneth Gray Professor of Workforce Education and Development Penn State University

Uncertain Times The new “Gilded Age” Decline in wages of BA graduates Growth of “Gray Collar” workers Growth of off-shoring of jobs Growth of high skill but low wage work.

Obstacle # 1 The One Way to Win Paradigm 1.Get a four year college degree 98% agree, 72% plan on grad school 2.In order to insure economic success Three of top 4 reasons for going to college 3.In the professional ranks Professional/manageral 65% Technical 6%

The “Other Way to Win” Message 1.The “one way to win” philosophy is nonsense. It insures the majority of teens will fail. 2.There are Other Ways to Win. Technical education is a better way for many from the academic middle. 3.All students should go on to postsecondary education when and if they can benefit from the experience. 4.Students who are at risk of dropping out or who will go to work after graduation are just as important as the baccalaureate bound. 5.The traditional academic program “alone” is not likely to serve well many students from the academic middle. 6.CTE is to some student what AP/honors is to others.

The Fate of 24 Pennsylvania Elementary School Children 5 drop out (23%) 10 graduates go to work (53%); only 22% get any formal on-the-job training.

The Fate of 24 Pennsylvania Elementary School Children 5 Drop out (23%) 10 Graduate & go to work (53%) 9 Enroll in college (47%) 2 Drop out freshman year (21%) 5 Graduate in five years (60%) 2 Take “gray collar” jobs, nationally (40%). Only 3 win the one way to win game

Employment of University Graduates Supply Demand Employed University Grads 1,324, ,400 55% Only 12% of all jobs require just a BA degree (Dept of labor projections to 2012).

Financial Aide

Obstacle # 2 Fundamental Fears & Misconceptions A college degree is today what a high school diploma was before. There will be so many with a university degree that they will take all the good jobs.

Fundamental Fears & Misconceptions College grads earn more than others. It must be because they have a college degree. –Education explains less than 10% of earnings –Extreme wealth at the top distorts truth. –26% BA grads earn less than HS grads –21% HS grads earn more than BA grads –83% of associate degree holders have same median annual earnings a 4-yr grad. (Thurow, Ulreich,NYT, 1/17/05)

Obstacle # 4 Labor Market Misconceptions.

1. The High Skills/High Wage Workplace Semi-conductor Manufacturing Ratio: 1 to 2 to 7

2. Labor Market Projections Can be Misleading Opportunity is greatest in occupations where demand exceeds supply. Fast growing,slow growing and even net job loss may or may not mean opportunity.

Shortages of Technicians There will be 100,000 more jobs for computer technicians than computer engineers. While construction trades employment is predicted to grow only by 13% retirement of older workers results in a net demand of over two million jobs from 2000 to 2010

Among high-tech industries - those with a high proportion of scientists, engineers, and Technicians, are projected to grow rapidly: Source: Hecker, Monthly Labor Review (July 2005), p. 57.

3. Occupational Skill not Degrees Provide Labor Market Advantage High Skill/ High Wage Low Skill/ Low Wage Other Ways to Win Work Ethic & Work Ethics Academic Skills Occupational Skills

What Types of Employees are Expected to Be in Short Supply Over the Next Years? Source: “2005 Skills Gap Report: A Survey of the American Manufacturing Workforce” by National Association of Manufacturing

Types of Skills Workers Will Need in the Future (NAM. 2006)

Obstacle 5 Widespread Career Immaturity The Need to Help Teens “Get Real”

Today Success Requires Appropriate Academic skills & Career Direction Few Graduate with Both

Where High School Seniors Expect to be Employed Other Ways to Win Occupations All Seniors Males Females Professional Manager Craft/Precision manufacturing/ Specialized repair Technicians Source: U.S. Department of Education

Consequences of Indecision Many colleges now have prerequisites required for entering college majors. 50% seniors change their career goal in 18 months One quarter of those who start at a four year institution transfer. One third of those who enter two year colleges intending on transferring to a university, do so. Of these, only one third graduate in six years.. success rate = 11%.

Parents National surveys suggest most parents welcome help with college/career planning. The majority of parents do not want their children to do what they do for work.

All my life I’ve always wanted to be somebody, but I see now I should have been more specific. Wagner, 1986 Other Ways to Win

Old Advice that is Now Bad Advice Postpone career choices as long as possible - You don’t want to close any doors. Do not worry about career/college major indecision - you will decide that in college.

Creating Other Ways to Win Career Guidance  By the tenth grade all students will have participated in activities designed to help them identify several career options.  In the eleventh and twelfth grades all students will participate in activities that allow them to verify these choices, using the results to develop postsecondary plans.

Career Verification Activities Preferred by Teens Job Shadowing71%Vocational Education 56% Internships64%Unpaid employment 51% Paid employment 61%Guest speakers36% Career focused academic class 60%Career interest inventories 17%

Student Outcomes Goals of Career Development Programs  Help teens make the best career decision they can based on what they know “now” about themselves and the world of work.  If this is a good decision, the next decision will be even better.

Summary 1.Half of all teens in PA either drop out or go to work after high school graduation. 2.There are other ways to win 3.There will be more opportunity at technician level occupations Career maturity is as important as academic maturity.

CTE Is to Some Teens What AP & Honors Is To others.