Chapter 6 The Work Breakdown Structure and Project Estimation Copyright 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. 6-1

Announcements RTP Bus Trip - Friday, 10/3 Midterm Review – Monday, 10/6 Midterm – Wednesday, 10/8 Introduction to PM Software – Friday, 10/10 6-2

Project Planning Framework 3-3 Copyright 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

PMBOK – Knowledge Areas

PMBOK ® – Project Time Management Define Activities  Identifying what activities must be completed to produce the project scope deliverables Sequence Activities  Determining whether activities can be completed sequentially or in parallel and any dependencies that may exist among them Estimate Activity Resources  Identifying the type of resources (people, technology, facilities, etc.) and the quantity of resources needed to carry out project activities Estimate Activity Durations  Estimating the time to complete each activity Develop Schedule  Based on the availability of resources, the activities, their sequence, and time estimates, a schedule for the entire budget can be developed Control Schedule  Ensuring that proper processes and procedures are in place in order to control changes to the project schedule 6-5

Importance of Project Schedules Managers often cite delivering projects on time as one of their biggest challenges Schedule issues are the main reason for conflicts on projects, especially during the second half of projects 6

Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) The WBS represents a logical decomposition of the work to be performed and focuses on how the product, service, or result is naturally subdivided. It is an outline of what work is to be performed – PMBOK Guide ® (17). Work Packages 6-7

Deliverables versus Milestones Deliverables Milestones 6-8

Developing the WBS A work package is developed for each of the phases and deliverables defined in the Deliverable Structure Chart (DSC) 6-9

Deliverable: Test Results Report Logical Activities: 1.Review the test plan with the client so that key stakeholders are clear as to what will be tested, how the tests will be conducted, and when the tests will be carried out. 2.Carry out the tests as outlined in the plan. 3.Once the test results are collected, we need to analyze them. 4.The results should be summarized in the form of a report and presentation to the client. 5.If all goes well, the client will sign-off or approve the test results and then we can move on to the implementation phase of the project. If not, then we need to address and fix any problems What are the deliverables? Milestones?

Example Work Breakdown Schedule 6-11

The WBS Should Follow the Work Package Concept 6-12

The WBS… Should be “deliverable-oriented” Should support the project’s MOV Have enough detail to support planning and control Should involve those who will be doing the work Should include learning cycles and past lessons learned 6-13 What do we do now that we have the activities defined?

6.2 Test Results Report Review test plan with client1 day Carry out test plan5 days Analyze results2 days Prepare test results report and presentation3 days Present test results to client1 day Address any software issues or problems5 days Estimates are made for each activity in the WBS 6-14 How did we come up with these estimates? Using a technique, or combination of techniques, with the exception of guestimating!

Estimation Techniques - Traditional Project Management Approaches Guesstimating Delphi Technique Time Boxing Top-Down Bottom-Up Analogous Estimates (Past experiences) 6-15

Guestimating 6-16

Delphi Technique and Time Boxing Delphi Technique Involves multiple, anonymous experts Each expert makes an estimate Estimates compared  If close, can be averaged  If not, do another iteration until consensus is reached 6-17 Time Boxing: A “box” of time is allocated for a specific activity, task, or deliverable Can focus a team if used effectively Can demoralize a team if not used effectively

Top-Down Top & middle managers determine overall project schedule &/or cost Lower level managers are expected to breakdown schedule/budget estimates into specific activities (WBS) 6-18

Bottom-Up and Analogous Estimates 6-19 Schedules & budgets are constructed from WBS Starts with people who will be doing the work Schedules & budgets are the aggregate of detailed activities & costs

Remember: Difference b/w Duration & Effort Activity Duration Estimating Duration vs. Effort People doing the work should help create estimates, and an expert should review them 20

Software Engineering Approaches 6-21

What is one way to estimate software development? Use project characteristics (parameters) in a mathematical model to estimate 6-22

Lines of Code 6-23 Example: $50/ LOC based on: Programming language Level of expertise Size & complexity

Function Point Analysis 5 Primary Elements  Inputs  Outputs  Inquiries  Logical Files  Interfaces 6-24

Complexity LowAverageHighTotal Internal Logical Files (ILF) _3 x 7 = 21_2 x 10 = 20_1 x 15 = 1556 External Interface Files (EIF) __ x 5 = ___2 x 7 = 14__ x 10 = __14 External Input (EI) _3 x 3 = 9_5 x 4 = 20_4 x 6 = 2453 External Output (EO) _4 x 4 = 16_2 x 5 = 10_1 x 7 = 733 External Inquiry (EQ) _2 x 3 = 6_5 x 4 = 20_3 x 6 = 1844 Total Unadjusted Function Points (UAF)

General System CharacteristicDegree of Influence Data Communications3 Distributed Data Processing2 Performance4 Heavily Used Configuration3 Transaction Rate3 On-line Data Entry4 End User Efficiency4 Online Update3 Complex Processing3 Reusability2 Installation Ease3 Operational Ease3 Multiple Sites1 Facilitate Change2 Total Degrees of Influence 40 Value Adjustment Factor VAF = (TDI * 0.01) +.65 VAF = (40 *.01) +.65 = 1.05 Total Adjusted Function Points = FP = UAF * VAFFP = 200 * 1.05 =

LanguageAverage Source LOC per Function Pont Average Source LOC for a 210 FP Application Access387,980 Basic10722,470 C12826,880 C++5311,130 COBOL10722,470 Delphi296,090 Java5311,130 Machine Language ,440 Visual Basic 5296,090 Source:

The seeds of major software disasters are usually sown in the first three months of commencing the software project. Hasty scheduling, irrational commitments, unprofessional estimating techniques, and carelessness of the project management function are the factors that tend to introduce terminal problems. Once a project blindly lurches forward toward an impossible delivery date, the rest of the disaster will occur almost inevitably. T. Capers Jones, 1988 Page

What happens when project run long? 6-29 So, your estimates were inaccurate….should you add more manpower to the project

The Man Month 6-30 Months People Months People Time versus number of workers perfectly partitionable task – i.e., No communication among them e.g., reaping wheat. When a task that cannot be partitioned because of sequential constraints, the application of more effort has no effect on the schedule.

Adding People 6-31

What can cause inaccurate estimates? 6-32

In Reality…Estimating is quite challenging Stable Activities  straightforward estimating Dependent Activities  amount needed for testing is dependent on a successful test or unsuccessful test.  3-point estimates or analogous work well. Uncertain Activities  No previous precedence (complex projects)  Start with 3-point estimate to set boundaries then use analogous to set actual estimate 33