Local Employment Dynamics (LED) & OnTheMap Nick Beleiciks Oregon Census State Data Center Meeting April 14, 2009

Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) Program within the U.S. Census Bureau Local Employment Dynamics (LED) Partnership between the states and Census Creates new information about the labor market Low cost No additional respondent burden Protects confidentiality What is LED?

“A Census – State Partnership” The folks at LEHD “Sexy” OnTheMap user during a Webinar “LED is a thousand answers looking for a thousand questions” Tom Tveidt of SYNEVA Economics LLC How To Describe LED?

Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) 30 Indicators QWI Online 8 Indicators – Easy to access and use OnTheMap Maps and much more! Industry Focus Ranks industries by the 8 Indicators Older Worker Profiles “Old” data The Products…

States provide quarterly administrative data Employer locations, number of employees, payroll Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) Individual earnings and employers Unemployment Insurance “Wage File” LEHD matches state employment data with demographic (age & gender) and residency information about individual workers Social Security Administration records How It Works…

Who’s Involved?

Workers covered under Oregon’s Unemployment Insurance (UI) program About 1.7 million Who is not covered? Federal employees Railroad workers Some agricultural workers Student workers What Workers Are Included In LED?

LED maintains confidentiality about workers and employers They “fuzz” some data to ensure confidentiality Unsure how the folks at LEHD do this This leads to some hesitation for some new users Fuzz information available for QWI The FUZZ (data police)

Available from the Cornell VirtualRDC website 30 employment and earnings indicators Year – Oregon goes back to 1991 Quarter – Partial information for 2q2008 Gender – male, female, or both Age – 14-99, 14-18, 19-21, 22-24, 25-34, 35-44, 45-54, 55-64, Geography – County and Metro and Micro Areas Industry – 4-digit NAICS level Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI)

Types of Fuzz Codes -2No employers operate in this category during this quarter Required historical of future wage record data are not available 0No employment in this age, sex category 1The value is not significantly affect by the disclosure protections 5This value has been suppressed because it does not meet Census Bureau publication standards 9The value has been significantly distorted to protect confidentiality

Quarterly Workforce Indicators (QWI) Example

QWI Online 8 Employment Indicators: Available for same groups as regular QWI Easy to use online tool at LEHD Website: Total Employment Net Job FlowsJob CreationNew Hires SeparationsTurnover Avg Monthly Earnings Avg New Hire Earnings

QWI Online Example

Adds GIS capability to LED data Fewer indicators – more geographic detail Years – 2002 – 2006 Quarter – 2 nd Quarter only Age – 30 or younger, 31 to 54, 55 or older Wages – $3,400 Geography – Down to Census Block Groups Industry – 2-digit NAICS level Industry Groups Goods producing Trade, transportation and utilities Other services OnTheMap – Version 3

OnTheMap – Version 3

OnTheMap – Version 3 Example (1 of 4)

OnTheMap – Version 3

OnTheMap – Version 3 Example (2 of 4)

OnTheMap – Version 3 Example (3 of 4)

OnTheMap – Version 3

OnTheMap – Version 3 Example (4 of 4)

Natural disasters – tornados, floods, etc. Employment impact Estimate unemployment insurance payouts Commute patterns Economic development Housing studies Affordable housing Other Uses of OnTheMap

Quick way to look at QWI indicators by industry Ranks industries by any of the 8 QWI Indicators Uses a four quarter average Industry Focus

Industry Focus Example

LEHD produces this series of reports for 30 states The Geographic Distribution and Characteristics of Older Workers: 2004 The data is “old” – 2004 when we now have 2007 “Easily” replicable Older Worker Profiles

Portion of County Workforce Age 55 and Older 2007 Census LEHD data 15.0% to 18.0% 18.1% to 21.1% 21.2% to 24.2% 33.5%

Average Monthly Earnings Age 55 and Older

Average Monthly Earnings of Workers 55 and Older, by Industry Metropolitan Areas Highest-paying: Financial Activities ($4,821) Lowest-paying: Leisure and Hospitality ($1,723) Non-Metropolitan Areas Highest-paying: Resources and Mining ($4,293) Lowest-paying: Leisure and Hospitality ($1,492)

MAP: Increase in number of older workers, Increase in Number of Workers Age 55 and Older , Census LEHD data 14.5% to 26.9% 27.0% to 39.9% 40.0% to 52.9% 53.0% to 66.2%

Not much – yet Are Baby Boomers retiring? Previous recession: Stable separations went down while stable hires went up Largest drop off was in workers Youth employment came back for girls after recession, but not for boys What Can LED Tell Us About the Recession?

Thank you for your time. Questions or comments? (541)