Emilia-Romagna Region (PP6) Project Progress Katia Raffaelli, Luisa Perini, Maria Romani, Maurizio Sani 2 nd PlanCoast Conference Costanta, 31 st May - 2 nd June 2007

WP4 Pilot Project Realisation and evaluation of the ICZM Strategy State of the Art Implementation of the ICZM GuideLines into the local scale in order to valuate the impacts of planning strategies

14th JulyAncona, Kick-off conference3 State of the Art Writing the cognitive picture Assessment of interactions between thematic areas Thematic maps/paper development At the moment were applying a model to support decision system

14th JulyAncona, Kick-off conference4 Decisions from maximisation –Elicitation of future decisions, including doing nothing –Check of past decisions Several environmental and social indicators, but no monetisation and no relative weights for non-economical indicators It considers –The human and environmental dynamics, so the maximal demographic or industrial pressure can be calculated –Uncertainty, through the sensitivity analysis –The opportunity of depurating projects, specifying best locations Results presented in GIS Decisions from a partial maximisation –They depend on initial and sustanability conditions –If repeated several times, they identify the steady state conditions The total value of projects is endogenous Characteristics of the model

14th JulyAncona, Kick-off conference5 Site 1 (A 1 Km 2 ): agriculture vs. industry Site 2 (A 2 Km 2 ): agriculture vs. urbanisation Site i (A i Km 2 ): activity j vs. activity j vs. … Notes –Expandible to any number of sites (i = i,…,I) –Expandible to any number of activities (j=1,…,J), so also to several types of urbanisation –The identification of sites, as well as of the alternative possible activities for each site, depend on the assumed time horizon (long vs. short-run) and on the observed spatial characteristics (resource availability, distance to roads,...) The structure of the model

14th JulyAncona, Kick-off conference6 Data –Necessity –Availability –Collection and organizing Possible cohesistence of more than one activity in the same area Some issues

14th JulyAncona, Kick-off conference7 Thanks for your attention