Quantifying Transportation Needs and Assessing Revenue Options: The Texas Experience presented to The Arkansas Blue Ribbon Committee on Highway Finance Dr. David Ellis Research Scientist Texas Transportation Institute The Texas A&M University System College Station, Texas Phone:
Two Efforts The 2030 Committee to Determine Transportation Needs and Recommend Investment Level The TRENDS Model to Assess Revenue Alternatives
Desired Mobility Level Analytical Process Investment Required Current/Future Revenue Stream Current/Future Expense Stream Economic ImpactBenefit/Cost The TRENDS Model The 2030 Committee
The 2030 Committee Needs Assessment
Needs Determination Process Summary Travel demand models Peak period speeds Regular delay and incident/irregular delay Calculate performance measures Identify road sections over congestion threshold Estimate road needed to accomplish scenario Group by area type and functional class Estimate cost for area/functional class additions Add interchange and right-of-way costs
Urban Mobility Analysis Overview Performance Measures Peak and free-flow travel speed Delay reductions from signal coordination, access mgmt, incident clearance, ramp metering Texas Congestion Index Delay per “commuter” Total delay and extra fuel costs
Types of Benefits Delay savings – compared to free-flow Fuel savings – simple estimate (% of delay) Reduced cost of goods and services (productivity) Business Effects ◦ Economic impact of construction ◦ Business profitability & job creation Local tax revenue
Cost (billions of $ 2008) Maintain Economic Competitiveness Reduce Congestion Current Funding Trend Prevent Worsening Congestion Inadequate Mobility Investment MINIMUM Delay Hours per Commuter in 2030 Mobility Investment and Congestion Mitigation
Costs of Improvements and Congestion Costs in Billions (2008 $)
Total Investment Needed: 2010 to 2030 (in 2008 $) 2030 Need AreaInvestment Required Pavements $ 89 Billion Bridges $ 36 Billion Urban Mobility $ 171 Billion Rural Mobility and Safety Projects $ 17 Billion TOTAL $ 313 Billion
The Transportation Revenue Estimator and Needs Determination System (TRENDS) Model
Dynamic and Interactive Analytical Planning Tool Web-based Menu Driven Allows User to Make Choices
TRENDS Model Process Gallons of Fuel Used Population Relationship of Fuel Used to Population Fuel Efficiency Fuel Used/Fuel Efficiency = VMT Future Population yields Future Fuel Use and VMT
The Relationship Between Gasoline Used and Population
Relationship Between Diesel Fuel and Population
68 Variables Taxes Fees Maintenance Levels Fuel Economy Inflation Rate Population
Report Formats Tabular Form Revenue and Expense Statement Charts
Backcasting Using the TRENDS Model Absolute Mean Value of Error: Gasoline Revenues:2.19 % Diesel Revenues:2.68 % Registration Fee Revenues:2.55 %
Alternative Fuel Economy Scenarios
PROJECTED REVENUE AND EXPENDITURES Total Revenues Maintenance and Operating Expenditures New Capacity Expenditures Annual Balance of FundsCumulative Balance Fiscal Year 2010$8,758,866,295$5,719,566,241$0$3,039,300, $8,666,176,935$6,199,735,250$0$2,466,441,685$5,505,741, $7,331,042,188$6,565,611,249$0$765,430,938$6,271,172, $7,394,794,904$6,662,663,504$0$732,131,400$7,003,304, $7,455,331,884$6,788,181,923$0$667,149,961$7,670,454, $6,509,064,724$7,131,845,147$0-$622,780,423$7,047,673, $6,558,673,619$6,951,339,715$0-$392,666,095$6,655,007, $6,582,076,715$7,063,421,961$0-$481,345,245$6,173,662, $6,600,459,874$7,224,842,844$0-$624,382,971$5,549,279, $6,611,094,702$7,393,445,846$0-$782,351,144$4,766,928, $6,612,209,268$8,711,630,578$0-$2,099,421,310$2,667,506, $6,603,964,888$8,999,905,699$0-$2,395,940,811$271,566, $6,584,919,464$9,297,115,473$0-$2,712,196,009-$2,440,629, $6,553,222,123$9,636,769,543$0-$3,083,547,420-$5,524,177, $6,506,690,326$9,952,306,197$0-$3,445,615,871-$8,969,793, $6,442,514,351$10,319,739,231$0-$3,877,224,880-$12,847,018, $6,371,518,932$10,669,747,152$0-$4,298,228,221-$17,145,246, $6,293,285,063$10,933,478,274$0-$4,640,193,212-$21,785,439, $6,207,281,506$11,223,846,556$0-$5,016,565,050-$26,802,004, $6,113,058,615$11,634,934,560$0-$5,521,875,946-$32,323,880, $6,010,008,576$12,062,368,227$0-$6,052,359,651-$38,376,240, $5,960,528,848$12,381,798,447$0-$6,421,269,599-$44,797,509, $5,922,511,254$12,728,902,058$0-$6,806,390,804-$51,603,900, $5,895,448,048$13,209,382,882$0-$7,313,934,834-$58,917,835, $5,878,939,290$13,708,972,798$0-$7,830,033,508-$66,747,868, $5,872,534,080$14,228,432,867$0-$8,355,898,787-$75,103,767, $5,876,342,534$14,768,554,491$0-$8,892,211,957-$83,995,979, $5,884,909,720$15,330,160,627$0-$9,445,250,907-$93,441,230, $5,898,161,942$15,914,107,045$0-$10,015,945,103-$103,457,175, $5,911,436,995$16,521,283,637$0-$10,609,846,642-$114,067,022, $5,924,301,110$17,152,615,780$0-$11,228,314,670-$125,295,337,033 TOTAL:$201,791,368,771$327,086,705,804$0-$125,295,337,033
Questions?
David Ellis Research Scientist Texas Transportation Institute The Texas A&M University System College Station, Texas
Other Slides
Annual Percent Increase in Texas: 1990 to 2007
Texas Motor Fuels Tax Adjusted for Inflation
Texas Motor Fuels Tax Adjusted by H.C.I.
Average Fleetwide Fuel Efficiency in Texas: Gasoline Powered Vehicles
Fuel Efficiency Adjusted Fuel Tax Paid (assuming 12,000 annual miles)
Historical and Projected Fuel Tax Revenues Texas
Over the next 20 years: VMT is projected to increase 33 percent Fuel tax revenue is projected to decrease 23 percent
Vehicle Miles Traveled in the United States (in millions): 1936 through 2009 (Source: Federal Highway Administration)
R-Squared Value - Price of Gasoline and Per Capita Consumption by Month August 1997 through July 2009
Year-Over-Year Percent Change in Consumption of Gasoline Per Capita Versus Year-Over-Year in Percent Change in Gasoline Price in Texas (All Months - August 1997 through July 2009)