International Conference and Exhibition on Logistics and Supply Chain 22 Nov 2011, Lahore (Pakistan) Mr. Max EE Principal Consultant Trade Logistics in Central Asia

2 1.Introduction of CAREC 2.CAREC Member Countries 3.CAREC Corridors 4.Implications for Pakistan Contents

3 The Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation, or CAREC, Program is a partnership of 10 countries, supported by 6 multilateral institutions, working together to promote development through cooperation, leading to accelerated growth and poverty reduction. CARECs 6 multilateral partners are: Asian Development Bank (ADB) European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) International Monetary Fund (IMF) Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) United Nations Development Programme World Bank Priority areas CAREC helps Central Asia and its neighbors realize their significant potential by promoting regional cooperation in four priority areas: Transport Trade Facilitation Trade Policy Energy

CAREC and PIFFA 4 Corridor Performance Measurement and Monitoring (CPMM) A regional study on the time and cost for cargo transportation in Central Asia. Objectives To estimate the time and cost of goods movement in Central Asia To identify the bottlenecks in transport corridors To promote regional cross border trade and transport

5 CPMM Data Collection PIFFADriversCAREC Questions? Yes No Accept Data

6 Transport to border Wait at border crossing/change transport mode Transport to sea port Wait at sea port Sea transport Day 4 Time Day 3 Day 2 Day 1 $400 Cost $300 $200 $ km1000 km2000 km1500 km Distance Time/Cost – Distance Analysis

Central Asia – Micro View 7

Central Asia – Macro View 8

CAREC Member Countries 9 Azerbaijan Kyrgyz Republic China Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Afghanistan Kazakhstan Mongolia Pakistan Tajikistan

Key Indicators 10 Population (millions) Real GDP (Billions, USD) GDP Per CapitaRead GDP % Growth Afghanistan34.38$11.75$ % Azebaijan9.04$51.09$5, % China1,338.00$5,878.00$4, % Kazakhstan16.31$142.98$8, % Kyrgyz Republic 5.36$4.61$ % Mongolia2.75$6.08$2, % Pakistan173.59$174.80$1, % Tajikistan6.87$5.64$ % Turkmenistan5.04$21.07$4, % Uzbekistan28.16$38.98$1, % Source : ADB, World Bank, IMF

Key Indicators 11 Source : ADB, World Bank, IMF Export (Billions, USD) Import (Billions, USD) Ease of Doing Business Afghanistan$0.40$ Azebaijan$14.68$ China$1,201.00$1, Kazakhstan$43.19$ Kyrgyz Republic$1.17$ Mongolia$1.67$ Pakistan$17.55$ Tajikistan$0.90$ Turkmenistan$2.15$5.22N.A. Uzbekistan$5.34$

Trading Across Border 12 ExportImport Countries DocumentsTime (Days)Cost (USD)DocumentsTime (Days)Cost (USD) Afghanistan1074$3, $3,830 Azebaijan838$2, $3,405 China821$500524$545 Kazakhstan976$3, $3,290 Kyrgyz Republic 863$3,210972$3,450 Mongolia846$2,265847$2,400 Pakistan721$660818$705 Tajikistan1182$3,850983$4,550 Turkmenistan Uzbekistan1071$3, $4,650 Source : Doing Business 2012, World Bank

1. Western Europe-Western China Corridor

1. Steel products, coal and sulphur are some products commonly exported to the south (CIS) and east (PRC) of Kazakhstan.

2. East-West Corridor

3. North-South Corridor

4. Trans- Mongolian Corridor

Road Transport 336 km 736 km 4. Common items transported are cosmetics, food, medicine, and spare parts.

Rail Transport Transit : 1,100 km, $2810, days Route : Naushki-Sukhbaatar-Tolgoit- Zamyn Uud – Erlian- Tianjin Products : Wood/Timber Carriage : tons using rail wagons Import : 1,700 km, $3670, days Route : Tianjin-Erlian-Zamyn Uud-UB Products : Manufactured Goods, Food Carriage : 20 or 40 Containers Export: 1,700 km, $2231, days Route : UB-Zamyn Uud – Erlian- Tianjin Products : Minerals, Cashmere, Copper Cathodes Carriage : 20 or 40 Containers

5. Southern Corridor

1. VOC is very high in TAJ. For a distance of km, the VOC is $2, In AFG, NATO can sometimes stop traffic causing delays.

6. Northwest Corridor

1. In AFG, the most heavily used route is Hayratan-Kabul- Torkham. Traffic is both ways. The distance spans km, costs $2,500 and takes 1-2 days. 2. In the Hayratan-Kabul- Torkham route, common item is scrap iron. In the opposite direction, the common item carried is perishables(food).

Results of CPMM Study 24 Common Products Shipped Across Central Asia

Results of CPMM Study 25 Corridors Comparisons of Speed by Corridors

Results of CPMM Study 26 Comparisons of Speed vs Reliability

Implications for Pakistan 27 Transport Investment Logistics Terminals Sectors

1. Transport 28 1.Most CAREC member countries are land- locked and do not access to seaports. 2.Can Pakistan serve as a transit country for Central Asia? 3.What Pakistan need to provide, invest and improve to attract more goods flowing through the country?

2. Logistics Terminals 29 1.Where are the bottlenecks in Pakistan transport corridors? 2.Can the construction of new logistics terminals and facilities relieve the bottlenecks? 3.Can one-stop service (single window) for customs clearance be achieved at border crossing points?

3. Investment 30 1.There are many investment opportunities now in Central Asia. 2.Examples : Multi-modal logistics terminals, railways rolling stocks, special economic zones (SEZs). 3.How can Pakistan private companies capture this historical opportunity? 4.Can Public-Private Partnership (PPP) be the way forward?

4. Sectors 31 1.Attractive Investment / Collaboration areas include : Agricultural Mining Real Estate Retail Consumer Goods Security Services Hospitality / Entertainment Trading (Import / Export) Transport / Freight Forwarding

Thank You! Max Ee Supply Chain Consultant SCM Analytics Pte Ltd Contact :