“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Scenario Planning Charles Yoe, PhD Alaska District November, 2008

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Learning Objectives At the end of this session participants will be able to: –Discuss scenario planning and its uses –Identify the steps in scenario planning –Discuss the nature and importance of scenarios for dealing with uncertainty

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions PLANNING IN AN UNCERTAIN WORLD “All our knowledge is about the past and all our decisions are about the future” Ian Wilson 1/31/75

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions What if the future is not like the past?

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Futures in Planning Single most likely without project condition exists –Traditional planning approach –Address quantity and model uncertainty within that scenario More than one possible future and they are significantly different –Scenario planning

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions When to Use Scenario Planning Scenario Planning Deterministic Planning Standard Decision Making Consequence UncertaintyMuch Grave Little Minor

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Scenario Planning Is Consistent With P&G It is not an alternative to P&G Enhancement for situations with significantly different futures possible Scenario planning modifies tasks in some steps

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Traditional P&G Planning Is largely deterministic Process relies on a single most likely alternative future forecast –Desire for single right answer –Often anchored in present –Adversarial--legitimate differences in views of uncertain future

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Forecasting & Comparing Criteria Plan Effects Baseline Risk Existing Risk Without Condition With Condition Before & After Comparison With & Without Option Comparison TargetGap Analysis Time

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Most Likely Future Condition A single forecast of the future will be wrong Thus, planning is based on what could be not necessarily what will be What could be is wide open to debate –We cannot ignore it The consequences of being wrong may be serious

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Scenario Planning Developed in second half of 20 th century (Europe) Result of failure of traditional planning –Deterministic view of future –Forecasts were wrong

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Barrow Coastal Problem Even small projects can be complex!

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Barrow’s Coast

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Change Storms and erosion –Global warming –Less ice cover- major issue Social & economic infrastructure Cultural consequences

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Ivu

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Scenarios Are Narratives Alternative plausible futures Significantly different views of the future Decision-focused views of future “Movies”-capture evolving dynamics of future Products of team insight and perception

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Scenarios Are Not Predictions Variations around a theme –Alternative forecasts of a key variable Snapshots of an endpoint Generalized views of feared or preferred futures Products of outsiders

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Scenario Planning Steps Getting Started 1.Develop case for scenarios 2.Get executive support and participation 3.Define decision focus 4.Design process 5.Select facilitator 6.Form scenario team Laying Environmental- Analysis Foundation 7.Gather data & view 8.ID key decision factors 9.ID critical forces & drivers 10.Conduct focused research on key issues, forces, & drivers Scenario Planning Handbook: Developing Strategies in Uncertain Times (Hardcover) by Ian Wilson (Author), Bill Ralston

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Scenario Planning Steps Creating the Scenarios 11. Assess importance & predictability/uncertain ty of forces/drivers 12.ID key axes of uncertainty 13.Select scenario logics to cover uncertainties 14.Write stories for scenarios Moving from Scenarios to Decisions 15. Rehearse future with scenarios 16.Decision recommendations 17.Identify signposts to monitor 18.Communicate results

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Getting Started Write out need for SP Make execs aware of what is coming & their role Write out description of decision focus Plan for scenario development activities Someone to keep process moving 8-12 diverse members on team

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Laying Environmental Analysis Foundation Gathering necessary information relating to decision problem Key Decision Factors (KDF)-future events/ outcomes we want to know more about –External and uncontrollable (brainstorm) –Clear statement of scenario focus and ID important uncertainties –“Chapter headings” for scenario

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions KDF Clusters Resident behavior –What businesses, residents do? Stay? Go?Grow?Floodproof? Government policies –Funding? NED/PS? Energy independence Economy –Strong? Recovery?

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Laying Environmental Analysis Foundation ID critical forces and drivers –Social, economic, political, technological, natural, international Name of force/driver Sentence describe what it is Possible future outcomes What other forces influence it What other forces are influenced by it Prepare needed focus papers (research)

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Creating the Scenarios Assess impact/uncertainty of forces & drivers ID axes of uncertainty-heart of scenario process –ID clusters of high impact/uncertainty drivers These are axes –Develop 2 alternate logics for each axis How drivers work out over time Plausible but at extreme

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Runoff P-loading Wetter Dryer Heavy Light

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Scenario Logics Develop set of scenario logics to describe possible futures –Plausible –Structurally different –Internally consistent –Have utility –Challenge conventional wisdom

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Write Story Lines Critical integration step –Weave threads into coherent patterns –ID cause-effect relationships –See future as whole Storytelling! –How different logics create different futures Title Brief description Narrative Comparison table

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions From Scenarios to Decisions Rehearse scenarios –Put team in them and formulate, evaluate, compare Analyze Select Monitor, evaluate, modify Runoff P-loading Wetter Dryer Heavy Light

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Two Basic Ways to Proceed Formulate plans for each scenario Evaluate each plan against each of the four scenarios (e.g., using MCDA results) Results of this evaluation are compared across plans to select a plan Which plan does best (robustness) regardless of the future realized?

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Another Way to Proceed Choose one of the four scenarios as most likely Proceed as usual through the selection process Evaluate the recommended plan against the other three remaining scenarios Unacceptable results in any scenario –Adaptive management –Reformulate –Another plan is selected

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Take Away Points Landscape scale problems complex & diverse Uncertainty is everywhere Scenario planning to address uncertainty MCDA needed to address complexity & collaborative planning initiative Scenario analysis--MCDA in scenario planning context is a potential solution

“ Building Strong “ Delivering Integrated, Sustainable, Water Resources Solutions Charles Yoe, Ph.D. Questions?