District 3 - PHILADELPHIA President – Charles I. Plosser Presented by Mallory Holden & Colette Dubicki

Charles I. Plosser INFLATION HAWK! BEWARE

Decreased consumer spending Decreased consumer spending decreasing overall:  Retail Sales  Domestic Tourism  Service Industry Increase in the input costs to produce goods: Increase in the input costs to produce goods:  Increasing prices of manufacturing and retail goods  Overall prices have increased  Causing moderate pressure to increase wages Real estate markets continue to appear dim Real estate markets continue to appear dim  Inventory of homes remains high  Financing is becoming harder to attain  New construction has slowed State of the National Economy

Manufacturers have experiencedManufacturers have experienced a steady rate of business Several manufacturing industriesSeveral manufacturing industries Others reported an increaseOthers reported an increase Retail sales continue to fallRetail sales continue to fall Auto sales have also decreasedAuto sales have also decreased In the financial market:In the financial market: Banks are limiting loans made for real estate projectsBanks are limiting loans made for real estate projects Credit quality has decreasedCredit quality has decreased Outstanding loans have increasedOutstanding loans have increased Consumer lending has increased slightlyConsumer lending has increased slightly Residential real estate has shown some signs of increase in home salesResidential real estate has shown some signs of increase in home sales Inventory of houses on the market remains highInventory of houses on the market remains high Commercial real estate has decreasedCommercial real estate has decreased Prices have risenPrices have risen The price of imports has gone up.The price of imports has gone up. A reduction in expansion and business activityA reduction in expansion and business activity State of District 3’s Economy

Headline Inflation Increased by 0.6% Core Inflation Increased by 0.2% Inflation in the National Economy

The Job of the Fed The Federal Reserve’s main responsibilities lie in providing our nation with price stability and promoting sustainable economic growth. The Federal Reserve’s main responsibilities lie in providing our nation with price stability and promoting sustainable economic growth. “Indeed, ensuring price stability is one of the most important contributions a central bank can make toward promoting sustainable economic growth”. “Indeed, ensuring price stability is one of the most important contributions a central bank can make toward promoting sustainable economic growth”. This is done by changing interest rates. This is done by changing interest rates. Remember: When you lower interest rates there is a higher demand to hold money which in turn leads to higher liquidity of money and higher inflation. Remember: When you lower interest rates there is a higher demand to hold money which in turn leads to higher liquidity of money and higher inflation.

The economy cannot constantly be stimulated for growth since it has no long-term advantages. The economy cannot constantly be stimulated for growth since it has no long-term advantages. It does not decrease unemployment nor increase output; it just leaves us with higher levels of inflation which hinders economic growth because: It does not decrease unemployment nor increase output; it just leaves us with higher levels of inflation which hinders economic growth because: –The change in prices are hard to determine why – whether it’s for higher demand or just due to inflation –It creates uncertainties about future inflation which makes business reluctant to expand operations –Fixed values become distorted –It tends to redistribute wealth from lenders to borrowers The Job of the Fed

More importantly, because everyone is combating their time, energy, and resources against inflation, more productive opportunities are missed. This is why price stability is so important and why we must fight the inflation that we are facing today. More importantly, because everyone is combating their time, energy, and resources against inflation, more productive opportunities are missed. This is why price stability is so important and why we must fight the inflation that we are facing today. “The best way for central banks to foster sustainable economic growth and prevent instability is to keep inflation under control”. “The best way for central banks to foster sustainable economic growth and prevent instability is to keep inflation under control”. We must not have the public lose confidence in the Fed as was the case in the 1970s otherwise it will be a downward spiral. We must not have the public lose confidence in the Fed as was the case in the 1970s otherwise it will be a downward spiral. The Job of the Fed

Remember: Monetary policy works with a lag so we cannot depend on it to solve all of our problems. Remember: Monetary policy works with a lag so we cannot depend on it to solve all of our problems. The markets will have to solve their own problems which is going to take time, but the Fed can help by promoting financial stability. The markets will have to solve their own problems which is going to take time, but the Fed can help by promoting financial stability. The Job of the Fed

What Should Be Done? Raise the Federal Funds Rate 25 basis points Raise the Federal Funds Rate 25 basis points How much should we raise the Federal Funds Rate? This much! How much should we raise the Federal Funds Rate? This much! 2.25% From 2% to…

The state of the economy is weak, but slowly The state of the economy is weak, but slowly looking optimistic. However, we cannot allow public confidence to wane as was the case throughout the 70s. Otherwise this will put a damper on economic growth. If the public is more concerned with inflation, other, more productive measures are wasted. We cannot control the actions the market takes against rising energy and food prices, but we can help by ensuring price stability and restoring consumer confidence. We cannot control the actions the market takes against rising energy and food prices, but we can help by ensuring price stability and restoring consumer confidence. Business cycle trends are hard to predict or influence, because productivity determines them, but in the long run they equalize. The only way to influence them is by allowing productivity to not be focused mainly on inflation. Business cycle trends are hard to predict or influence, because productivity determines them, but in the long run they equalize. The only way to influence them is by allowing productivity to not be focused mainly on inflation. Statement

References "Another Double Dissent: Dallas’S Fisher and Philadelphia’S Plosser." The Wall Street Journal 30 Apr June "Another Double Dissent: Dallas’S Fisher and Philadelphia’S Plosser." The Wall Street Journal 30 Apr June Chatterjee, Satyajit. "Real Business Cycles: a Legacy of Countercyclical Policies." Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Mar June Chatterjee, Satyajit. "Real Business Cycles: a Legacy of Countercyclical Policies." Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis. Mar June "Federal Reserve Statement on Rates." The Wall Street Journal 25 June June "Federal Reserve Statement on Rates." The Wall Street Journal 25 June June "Fedspeak Highlights: Plosser on Inflation and Fed Actions." The Wall Street Journal 18 Apr June "Fedspeak Highlights: Plosser on Inflation and Fed Actions." The Wall Street Journal 18 Apr June "FRB: Beige Book --Summary --June 11, 2008." The Federal Reserve Board. 11 June June "FRB: Beige Book --Summary --June 11, 2008." The Federal Reserve Board. 11 June June Molinski, Dan. "Jump in Retail Sales Lifts Dollar." The Wall Street Journal 13 June June Molinski, Dan. "Jump in Retail Sales Lifts Dollar." The Wall Street Journal 13 June June Plosser, Charles I. "The Economic Outlook: Challenges for Policymakers." Vital Speeches of the Day (2008): Plosser, Charles I. "The Economic Outlook: Challenges for Policymakers." Vital Speeches of the Day (2008): Reddy, Sudeep, and Phil Izzo. "The Dissent: Fisher Stands Alone." The Wall Street Journal 25 June June Reddy, Sudeep, and Phil Izzo. "The Dissent: Fisher Stands Alone." The Wall Street Journal 25 June June "The Big Easy." The Wall Street Journal 1 May June "The Big Easy." The Wall Street Journal 1 May June "US Monetary Policy: the Fed's Goals." Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. 7 Nov June "US Monetary Policy: the Fed's Goals." Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. 7 Nov June Watts, William L., and Kate Gibson. "Dollar Rises with U.S. Store Sales." The Wall Street Journal 13 June June Watts, William L., and Kate Gibson. "Dollar Rises with U.S. Store Sales." The Wall Street Journal 13 June June 2008.