R E 1 Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity ; Opportunities and Limitations of the GLOBIO3 model and the Natural Capital Index (NCI) framework International conference Millennium Assessment: Bridging scales and epistemologies

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 2 New Challenges Millennium development Goals Johannesburg 2010 target CBD biodiversity indicators Applications in the MA National (BINU) and regional EU / OECD applications

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 3 Outline presentation Previous work GEO3 and PEEP land use change agricultural intensity climate change GLOBIO 3 applied to Latin America Biodiversity Assessment Ecuador Upscaling national to global Downscaling global to national 2010 target Global interactive research

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 4 Key questions to be addressed by GLOBIO 3 What is changing: –biodiversity (ecosystems, species and their abundance) –natural areas –expected trends (scenarios) –geographically explicit –most vulnerable areas Why is it changing –different pressures –relative importance of pressures What can we do about it –effects of response options (e.g. to reach policy targets)

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 5 Comparison pressure indices: Global (GEO3) and Regional EU (Peep)

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 6 Contrasting trends of biodiversity impact: forest in EU

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 7 Suggestions for improvements Methodology for construction of pressure indices Considering agricultural landscapes (agroecosystems) dose-respons relationships from species abundance literature Upscaling local information Downscaling global information

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 8 B = LU * Agr* For * C * N * F B = Biodiversity of a region LC = biodiversity value for land cover type Agr = biodiversity reduction due to agriculture For = biodiversity reduction due to forestry C = biodiversity loss due to climate change N = biodiversity loss due to Nitrogen pollution F = biodviversity loss due to Fragmentation Overall Biodiversity

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 9 Data flow in the Global Biodiversity Model

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 10 Biodiversity impact from land use change

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 11 Examples from literature

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 12 Biodiversity effects of Land cover change

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 13 Biodiversity impact from agricultural intensity

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 14 Comparison organic and conventional Farming

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 15 Biodiversity loss due to of landuse change

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 16 Expected ecosytem quality in agroecosystems based on average production intensity (per Farming System) Average based on land use change only 30%

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 17 Biodiversity loss per farming system GLOBIO3 pressure approach (2000) Remaining biodiversity? Forest based farming system94% Coastal plantation & mixed73% Intensive Highland Mixed North Andes53%

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 18 Biovalores (ecosistema x producción)

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 19 Ecosystem quality in Ecuador

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 20 Ecosystem quality for agroecosystems per ecosystem in Ecuador

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 21 Área intervenida, mosaico y natural 50-70% ecosystem quality

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 22 Shifts of Biomes (IMAGE) and species (Euromove) Biodiversity impact from Climate Change

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 23 Biodiversity impact from Climate Change

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 24 Downscaling from the global model Biodiversity Situation 2000 NCI Loss by land use change27% Loss by international air pollution0% Loss by climate change2% Loss by agricultural intensification5% Loss by forest explotation1% _______________________________________ Natural Capital (2000)65%

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 25 Trends of biodiversity change on quality of ecosystems

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 26 Interaction of stakeholders with reference to the evaluation of the 2010 target models monitoring indicators

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 27 End

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 28 Which process to indicate? Main factors: - habitat loss - loss ecosystem quality The uniformity process of biodiversity loss: many rare species becoming more rare and few common species becoming more common (change of abundance or distribution of species)

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 29 The Natural Capital Index: Biodiversity =area size x ecosystem quality Ecosystem quality = average abundance/distribution of a set of characteristic species in relation to an ideal, original or historical reference

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 30 Natural Capital 2001 for Ecuadorian ecosystems

r Cross-scale Assessment of Biodiversity| Tonnie Tekelenburg, Malki Saenz and Rob Alkemade 31 Comparison biodiversity state (NCI) of two ecosystems in Ecuador bha = 87,23 28,20 77,05 7,35 2,83 5,1 7,14 15,96 87,23