1 ERCOT Load Research Update PWG August 24, 2005

2 Sample Reconciliation and Data Continuity Report Status: essentially complete Sample Points awaiting IDR installation Sample Points with IDRs with overdue/none.LS cuts.LS cuts with no corresponding sample points Gaps/overlaps in.LS cuts Cross check with ESIID Service History … gaps must be resolved if Active Duplicate.LS cuts Check for sample point replacements: profile changes (BUSIDRRQ, NMLIGHT, NMFLAT), weather zone changes and de-energized 180 days

3 Automate Pass Through of.LS files to C/S Lodestar Input Folder Status: complete Moves.LS files from LRS incoming folder to C/S Lodestar folder Identifies original and replacement cuts Replacement cuts moved to replacement folder … filenames prefixed with “Replacement” Archives original files for recovery purposes

4 C/S Lodestar Validation Parameters Status: Completed but subject to fine tuning Initial settings have been determined as follows: –ENERGY –MULTIPLIER 2.0 –OUTAGE 15 –NON-NORMAL 15 –ZERO 288 –SPIKE 10 50% –HIGH –LOW 0 –TIME –METER 2 1 –REPORT SERIES

5 TDSP Notification of Invalid/Questionable Data Status: In progress Extract C/S Lodestar validation messages for invalid cuts and format report for TDSP follow-up action Report should trigger replacement.LS files to cure defects

6 100% Sample Cell Totalization Process Status: not started Identify cells in the sample design which are sampled at 100% and the Recorder Ids in those cells Interval data will only be provided in totalized form for these sample cell to CRs participating in the LRS project Determine data completeness for a calendar month for each 100% cell and whether data has subsequently been replaced When data is complete build a C/S Lodestar control file and trigger totalizing run Archive and export totalized cuts in.LSE and Daily.CSV format

7 Recorder ID Translation Program Status: Not started Some TDSPs are using part of ESIID in the Recorder ID Create a unique and consistent reference Recorder ID to provide to CRs to protect identity of sample locations

8 Populate CR Mail Boxes with.LS Files Status: not started As cuts are archived in C/S Lodestar save control file to allow subsequent use for export to a holding area folder.LS and daily.CSV formats will be produced.CSV file will be reformatted as agreed during LRS meetings Files will be copied to ERCOT outbound mail box for distribution to LRS participant’s mail boxes Recorder ID translation will be performed prior to this run Include 100% sample cell totalized cuts in output process and exclude the individual cuts

9 Load.LS Files into C/S Lodestar Status: in progress We have loaded and validated.LS files received through January 31, 2005 Will continue loading and validating now on an ongoing basis We will be sending reports to TDSPs for follow-up on an ongoing basis … probably weekly

10 Create Analysis Control and Environment Files Status: not started Analysis will be performed by Profile Type and Weather Zone Original sample cells will be post-stratified by new profile type –Control file is a list of the sample points and their analysis stratum –Environment file is population counts and kWh for the analysis stratum Exclude de-energized sample points from analysis Combines LRS System tables and Lodestar tables (ESIID Service History and ESIID Usage)

11 Next Steps LRS meeting to review sample status, TDSP reports, data quality issues and CR data loading Sample design for 2 nd half of the sample Sample selection and IDR installation Current Profile Model assessments Update Profile Models Update IDR Threshold Analysis Evaluate profile type definitions and consider profile type additions and deletions Lagged dynamic sample analysis