© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 1 Electricity Systems with High Renewable Energy Shares Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann TU Berlin; Chair Energy Systems Member of the Federal Commission „Energie der Zukunft“ Seminary “Science for Energy Scenarios” organized by the “Commissariat à l'Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives » in Les Houche, 3 February 2014

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 2 Gross Power Generation in Germany [Source: AGEB] Gross electricity generation [TWh] RENOilHard coalLigniteGasNuclearOther

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann Biomass PV Wind Hydro Electricity generation [TWh] Renewable Electricity in Germany [Source AGEB]

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 4 German Electricity Bill for Final Users [Data source: Destatis 2012] Total expenditures of industrial, commercial and residential customers [without VAT; Billion Euros]

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 5 Breakdown of the German Electricity Bill Changeshare [bn. €] 2011/2 Total electricity bill (without VAT) %100.0% Government induced elements %35.8% - Electricity tax %10.7% - Concession fee %3.2% - Additional REN costs %21.5% - CHP and other levies %0.4% Government regulated elements %29.3% - Transmission fees %4.0% - Tistribution fees %25.3% Market elements %34.9% - Market value of renewables %7.4% - Generation, distribution and sales %27.5%

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 6 Direct and indirect support of Renewables New installations January 2014 Onshore wind Offshore wind PVBiogas Bio- methan Net support (Feed-in./. Market value) Integration Gas grid 22 Avoided grid costs gas 19 Extension electricity distribution grid Extension electricity transmission grid Offshore grid 26 Offshore levy 3 Short term merit order effect Backup capacity Transmission losses 2 12 Total Thereoff for elektrizität Thereoff for heat / gas grid 20 70

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 7 German Energy Concept 2050 [September 2010] Political targetBase year Greenhouse gas emissions1990  40%  55%  70%  80-95% Primary energy consumption2008  20%  50% Energy productivity  2.1% p.a. Power consumption2008  10%  25% CHP electricity share 25% Heat demand of building stock2008  10% Primary energy in building stock  80% Modernization rate of buildings  2% p.a. Final energy in transportation2005  20%  40% Number of electric vehicles1 Mio6 Mio REN share in energy consumption 18%30%45%60% REN electricity share35%50%65%80% “Price” for more nuclear

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 8 Assumed Renewable Electricity until Secured load Renewable share of power generation 12.0%17.8%35.0%50.0%80.0% - Biogas21.0%19.0%18.0%22.0%13.8%100% - Onshore wind35.0%34.0%33.0%30.0%18.8% 3% - Offshore wind 1.0% 4.0% 8.0%14.0%46.0% 9% - Photovoltaik15.0%20.0%22.0%19.0%11.9% 0% - Other renewables28.0%22.0%19.0%15.0% 9.4% 70% Renewable share without biogas 9.5%14.2%28.7%39.0%68.8% Secured load 2.0% 2.4% 4.3% 4.9% 6.8%

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 9 Volatility of Wind Power [Source: Ehlers 2011, S. 100] 0 4'000 8'000 12'000 16'000 20'000 Wind power generation [MW] Gradient 8'000 MW/h Amprion EnBW 50Hertz Transmission Transpower Virtually no capacity contribution

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 10 Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity Load [GW] Ordered load duration Ordered residual load without biogas / bio-methane 100

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 11 Remaining Non-renewable Power Plants Generation capacity [GW] Years in operation Nuclear [GW] Lignite [GW] Hard coal [GW] Gas [GW] Others [GW] Total [GW] Total adjusted15%

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 12 “Baseload” power Power Supply Scenario for 2030 with 50 Percent REN Electricity Load [GW] Ordered load duration Ordered residual load without biogas / bio-methane Conventional power plants 100 Expected annual operation of new plants

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 13 Ordered Day-ahead Prices in Day-ahead price 2012: Ø = €/MWh Without wind: Ø = €/MWh without wind + PV: Ø = €/MWh Δ = 8.53 €/MWh Day-ahead price [EUR/MWh] Hours

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 14 Ordered Prices in 2012 compared to prices Necessary for Financing new GT Day-ahead price [EUR/MWh] Hours ,60 €/MWh €/MWh at 500 h/a €/MWh at 1000 h/a €/MWh at 1500 h/a €/MWh at 2000 h/a

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 15 Backup Power Plant Operation in 2030 Residual load [GW] Hour No operation Consecutive Operation Plant position in the merit order

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 16 Consecutive Operation in 2030 [at 25 GW]

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 17 Consecutive Standstill in 2030 [at 45 GW]

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 18 Tack så mycket Tel: +49 (030) Fax: +49 (030)

© Prof. Dr. Georg Erdmann 19 Markets Business strategies Social welfare Prices Energy security Competition Investments Innovations CCS Regulation power Power-to-gas Energy laws Wind and PV Bio fuels Hydrogen and fuel cells CO 2 allowances Research Profile of „Energy Systems“ Industrial Economics Evolutionary Economics Public Choice … (Stochastic) Systems Analysis, Econometrics …