Katy Morris: Project Manager Nick Down: Assistant Manager Travis Hamel: GIS Analyst

Freeman Ranch Flood Prediction Model Image Credit: Art Arizpe Prepared by GeoTrek – The Next Generation

Background Major precipitation event in October 2013 Led to flooding in Freeman Ranch BeforeAfter

Background People were trapped at the ranch Total fence property damage est. $140,000

Summary GeoTrek : The Next Generation create flood-prediction model Use a Geographic Information System (GIS) Will aid Freeman Ranch to minimize repercussion from future flood events

Purpose Primary goal is to create a flood prediction model for Freeman Ranch Minimize damage Make Freeman ranch more flood resistant Propose possible construction reinforcement of roads and fences that are more vulnerable Secondary goal is the use of the model to make Freeman Ranch a safer environment Help know which roads are inundated to safely relieve personnel Which pastures are most vulnerable to flooding so all livestock can be removed from the area.

Scope Study areas within Freeman Ranch Fences and locating areas where they are at high risk Access roads for employees Physical infrastructure The timespan is variable: a lot can affect how quickly waters can rise with a flash flood event in Central Texas.

Scope

Primary Research Cellular Automation-It consists of a regular grid of cells, each in one of a finite number of states, such as “On” and “Off” (in contrast to a coupled map lattice). The grid can be in any finite number of dimensions. For each cell, a set of cells called its neighborhood (usually including the cell itself) is defined relative to the specified cell.

Literature Review Central Texas Flood research Hydrologic Modeling of an Extreme Flood in the Guadalupe River in Texas. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources association GIS Flood Prediction Modeling Research Flood Modeling and Vulnerability of Settlements in the Adamawa State Floodplain Using GIS and Cellular Framework Approach.

Data Digital Elevation Model – USGS Uses: Slope, Aspect, Elevations, Drainage GeoDatabase – GeoTrek Uses: Physical infrastructure, detailed watershed Weather Data – A&M and USGS

Methodology 1. Gather appropriate data Determine variables needed for analysis

Methodology 2. Process data  Create a grid system from DEM  Project other data in ArcMap

Methodology 3. Conduct GIS analysis  Assign a value to each cell in the grid  Mathematically determined

Methodology 3. Conduct GIS analysis  Use time variable to visualize spread

Methodology 3. Conduct GIS analysis  Project infrastructure data to determine which areas will be affected

Methodology 4. Compare findings to known data  Compare results to known data  Iterate step 3 until results are accurate

Methodology 5. Compile final deliverables  Create a real-time flood model for users  Will aide in determining which areas will be affected at what time

Implications The results of our flood prediction model can be used to determine what fences, pastures, and roads become jeopardized during a potential flood. The model will be able to simulate how flood waters will rise and what areas become inundated. It will be possible to determine what areas of freeman ranch are inaccessible or need to be evacuated of personnel and livestock.

Budget Data Collection $1,800 Data Analysis $13,500 System Management and Payroll $10,650 Project Manager – $5400 Assistant Manager – $2750 GIS Analyst – $2500 Equipment Costs $ Software and Data Costs $4791 Travel Expenses $25.00 Total Project Cost $33,552.74

Timetable 1/22 – Receive request for proposal from client 2/12 – Proposal to client 3/26 – Progress report to client 5/2 – Final project presentation to client Weeks with important dates

Final Deliverables Final report and an accompanying PowerPoint Presentation 2 CD/DVDs containing: All data Metadata All reports Digital copy of poster PowerPoint Presentations Professional poster outlining the project and its purpose Web portal for use by the Freeman Ranch

Conclusions GeoTrek : TNG will use a GIS to create a flood-prediction model for Freeman Ranch Use terrain, weather, and infrastructure data Use the concept of cellular automation to model the flood Aid Freeman Ranch assessing areas of potential risk to help minimize damage from future flood events

Participation Katy Morris: Project Manager, Editor Nick Down: Assistant Manager, Graphic Designer Travis Hamel: GIS Analyst, Primary Researcher