Swedish Commodity Flow Surveys Evaluated Swedish Commodity Flow Surveys Evaluated – Statistics Swedens Experiences and Survey Adjustments Since 2001 Session 10 ICES III Montreal 2007 Lars Werke Assistant head at the unit for transport statistics Statistics Sweden

Outline of presentation Background and purpose of the Swedish CFS. The Swedish CFS in perspective. The Swedish CFS in perspective. Comparing CFS 2001 and CFS 04/05 Comparing CFS 2001 and CFS 04/05 A pragmatic data collection approach A pragmatic data collection approach Challenges ahead and conclusions Challenges ahead and conclusions

Background and purpose Background and our comissioners Swedish Institute for Transport and Communications Analysis Swedish Institute for Transport and Communications Analysis Infrastructure agencies (SNRA, SCAA, SMA, NRA, Vinnova) Infrastructure agencies (SNRA, SCAA, SMA, NRA, Vinnova) Responsible for infrastructure planning in Sweden Responsible for infrastructure planning in Sweden Long term Goods Model (SAMGODS) Long term Goods Model (SAMGODS) 6 Different Economic models for prognosis and scenario analysis 6 Different Economic models for prognosis and scenario analysis 2 Supply models, 2 Demand models 2 Effect models 2 Supply models, 2 Demand models 2 Effect models Both demand models models goods flows in all 289 municipalities Both demand models models goods flows in all 289 municipalities Before CFS 2001 synthetic O-D matrix (not observed O-D flows) Before CFS 2001 synthetic O-D matrix (not observed O-D flows)

Background and purpose The purpose of the survey 1.To give a statistical description of the annual commodity flow within Sweden and between Sweden and foreign countries (with respect to weight/value, means of transportation, cargo type,cargo size and industry) 2.Provide the SAMGODS models with the necessary data

The Swedish CFS in perspective Statistics Sweden and transport No experience with multimodal statistics Unimodal: sea goods and road goods Unimodal: sea goods and road goods Regional CFS on county level (ERG project 1988, Bjurklo) Regional CFS on county level (ERG project 1988, Bjurklo) Contacted US Census Bureau (CFS 1993) Contacted US Census Bureau (CFS 1993) EU Mystic-project 1998 carrier based- approach EU Mystic-project 1998 carrier based- approach Decided on adopting Census Bureau approach Decided on adopting Census Bureau approach Test survey in 1996 and 1998 and first full-scale in 2001 Test survey in 1996 and 1998 and first full-scale in 2001

The Swedish CFS in perspective Swedish first CFS approach Stratified three-stage probability sample. Aimed at Mining, Manufacturing and Wholesale sectors Aimed at Mining, Manufacturing and Wholesale sectors Stratification: Geography, Local unit size and Commodity group Stratification: Geography, Local unit size and Commodity group Three stage sampling –>Local unit->Time period->Shipments Three stage sampling –>Local unit->Time period->Shipments Questionnaire different from US, divided in to three parts Questionnaire different from US, divided in to three parts Part 1: Outgoing shipment to own county Part 1: Outgoing shipment to own county Part 2: Outgoing shipment to other county and abroad Part 2: Outgoing shipment to other county and abroad Part 3: Incoming shipments from abroad Part 3: Incoming shipments from abroad Parts as a register based survey (Forestry, Agriculture) Parts as a register based survey (Forestry, Agriculture)

Comparing CFS 2001 and CFS 04/05 The CFS 2001 results Pro Response rate 78,4 % Response rate 78,4 % Outgoing shipments 246 million tonnes. SEK billion Outgoing shipments 246 million tonnes. SEK billion Electronic reporting at 10,9% Electronic reporting at 10,9% Commissioners content with quality and delivery Commissioners content with quality and deliveryCon Lack of Control in the final stage of sampling (shipments) Lack of Control in the final stage of sampling (shipments) Instructions (3pl), (Incoterms), (Wholesale agents) Instructions (3pl), (Incoterms), (Wholesale agents) Cut off limits (gas and oil) Cut off limits (gas and oil) Undercoverage (sand and gravel) Undercoverage (sand and gravel) Report burden Report burden We had to revise the statistical report. We had to revise the statistical report.

Comparing CFS 2001 and CFS 04/05 Preparing for CFS 04/05 Should cover more sectors of the economy. Logistics model developed for SAMGODS. Logistics model developed for SAMGODS. Additional variables in the questionnaire (P-C) (PWC). Additional variables in the questionnaire (P-C) (PWC). Increase electronic reporting. Increase electronic reporting. Decrease report burden. Decrease report burden. Improve overall design. Improve overall design.

A pragmatic data collection approach Going for the low hanging fruit Tried to look at the structure in different sectors Tried to look at the structure in different sectors Transport cost in relation to commodity value/weight ratio. Transport cost in relation to commodity value/weight ratio. Company level: Did all the units belong to a few companies. Company level: Did all the units belong to a few companies. We thought of using different questionnaires. We thought of using different questionnaires. Administrative registers tracking some goods were monitored. Administrative registers tracking some goods were monitored. Large shipments by sea flagged (paper mills etc.) Large shipments by sea flagged (paper mills etc.) Training of staff, sector specific, (distribution etc.) Training of staff, sector specific, (distribution etc.) Developed of new simple control tools. Developed of new simple control tools.

A pragmatic data collection approach Altered design Added admin. registers to avoid undercoverage (sand) Added admin. registers to avoid undercoverage (sand) A revision of cut off limits with a focus on the wholesale sector. A revision of cut off limits with a focus on the wholesale sector. Increased the registry based part of the survey. Increased the registry based part of the survey. Agricultural Agricultural Energy sector Energy sector We suggested specific industry surveys We suggested specific industry surveys Petroleum (Oil & Gas) Petroleum (Oil & Gas) Cars and Trucks (Wholesale) Cars and Trucks (Wholesale) Corn & Grain Corn & Grain

A pragmatic data collection approach Altered questionnaire Dropped ownership of goods decided on handling of goods Dropped ownership of goods decided on handling of goods Redesigned the questionnaire and instructions in to one form Redesigned the questionnaire and instructions in to one form Added new variables after a test (type of receiving industry) Added new variables after a test (type of receiving industry) We dropped hazmat and advised against inclusion of PWC We dropped hazmat and advised against inclusion of PWC Added control questions, focus on large shipments Added control questions, focus on large shipments Redesigned commodity code list. Redesigned commodity code list. Encouraged electronic reporting and complete data sets. Encouraged electronic reporting and complete data sets.

A pragmatic data collection approach Pro Response down from rate 78,4% in 2001 to 73,6 % in 04/05 Response down from rate 78,4% in 2001 to 73,6 % in 04/05 Outgoing shipments +15 % to 282 Million tonnes Outgoing shipments +15 % to 282 Million tonnes Outgoing shipments +10 % to SEK billion Outgoing shipments +10 % to SEK billion Electronic reporting from 10,9% to 18 % Electronic reporting from 10,9% to 18 % Comparison to trade stat. export within 2 % Comparison to trade stat. export within 2 % Covered most of agricultural sector with admin. data Covered most of agricultural sector with admin. data Commissioners content with quality and delivery Commissioners content with quality and deliveryCon Lack of Control in the final stage of sampling (shipments) Lack of Control in the final stage of sampling (shipments) Instructions (3pl), (Incoterms), (wholesale agents) Instructions (3pl), (Incoterms), (wholesale agents) Cut off limits (gas and oil) Cut off limits (gas and oil) Undercoverage (sand and gravel) Undercoverage (sand and gravel) Report burden Report burden

Challenges ahead and conclusions Challenges in 2009? CFS 04/05 is being evaluated by the commissioners. CFS 04/05 is being evaluated by the commissioners. Report burden must decrease to improve response rate. Report burden must decrease to improve response rate. Evaluate only one part for outgoing shipments. Evaluate only one part for outgoing shipments. Combine collected admin. data with specific surveys. Combine collected admin. data with specific surveys. Improve measurement on imports. Improve measurement on imports. More industry specific surveys. More industry specific surveys. Improve overall design. Improve overall design.

Challenges ahead and conclusions Conclusions or why does this work in Sweden Conclusions or why does this work in Sweden Sweden is a small open economy. Sweden is a small open economy. Government admin. data is easily accessible to Statistics Sweden. Government admin. data is easily accessible to Statistics Sweden. The three stage sample design is a good approach. The three stage sample design is a good approach. The increased response burden of the Swedish CFS called for a new data collection approach that also improved coverage of the survey. The increased response burden of the Swedish CFS called for a new data collection approach that also improved coverage of the survey. Norway is preparing for a CFS with similar approachNorway is preparing for a CFS with similar approach EU commission working on Intermodal indicators EU commission working on Intermodal indicators

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