Earth Systems Engineering Intentional Earth Systems Engineering Rather Than Unintentional Kevin Hallinan, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering

Overview Unintentional Earth Systems Engineering (ESE) Definition with examples Principles What do you think? Next step?

Examples of Unintentional Earth Systems Engineering - Copper Toquepala Copper Mine, Southern Peru 6.5 km 3 km deep Carbon produced ~ 30,000,000 tons/year

Aral Sea 1964 Irrigation Systems 1997 Ak-kum Desert – 3 million hectares

Higher Flying Aircraft and the Ozone Layer / Global Warming

3M - Scotchguard

Hybrid Vehicles – Better? Right? Electric Motor….Requires energy intensive and more polluting copper

Get the Idea ….I could go on all evening?

Earth Systems Engineering - Context Premised on the idea that we ARE already engineering the earth – unintentionally.

Carbon Cycle

Reduction Versus Control? Kyoto. Has it worked? Plant more trees?

Adaptive Control = Earth Systems Engineering

Question Break-out Group Question What ethical principles should guide the intentional control of atmospheric carbon?

ESE Definition Earth systems engineering may be defined as the study and practice of engineering human technology systems, and related elements of natural systems, in such a way as to provide the required functionality while facilitating the active management of the dynamics of strongly coupled fundamental natural systems. Such fundamental natural systems might include, for example, the grand elemental cycles (e.g., the carbon, nitrogen, and sulfur cycles), critical habitats, and atmospheric or oceanic systems.

Global Climate Control as the Example Four means to achieve control: 1). Control carbon injection into atmosphere. (Reduce) 2). Change the absorption of solar irradiation landing on the earth. 3). Alter the sinking of carbon/greenhouse gases in the atmosphere via natural processes. 4). Sequester the carbon via engineering processes.

Climate Control Strategies - Reduce carbon addition to environment - Shift from C to H fuels Shift to renewables Energy efficiency

Climate Control Strategies – Changing Solar Absorption Stratospheric sulphate aerosol seeding Giant reflectors orbiting the earth

Carbon Control Strategies – Sinking More Carbon Via Natural Processes - Iron seeding in the oceans - Ocean fertilization Genetic engineering of plants planting trees /grasslands Greening the deserts Algae ponds (ocean?)

Carbon Control Strategies – Carbon sequestration Terrestrial storage Ocean storage CO2 Dry Ice Sequestration Eco-cement

Adaptive Control = Earth Systems Engineering

Question Based upon the control strategies presented, what ethical/logical principles should guide the implementation of control strategies?

ESE Carbon Closed Loop Control Cycle

Principles of ESE 1.Only intervene when required, and to the extent required. The traditional medical axiom, "first, do no harm," is a reflection of humility in the face of complexity which is equally appropriate for Earth systems engineering.

2. Know what the objectives of any intervention are from the beginning, and establish metrics which can (a) track progress towards satisfying the objectives and (b) provide early warning of unanticipated or problematic system responses. Define system boundaries within which monitoring may produce action. Metrics Atmospheric carbon concentration? Control of earth average ground temperature? …. Reduction in severe weather events? Positioning of the earth’s airstreams/jetstreams? Deceleration of glacial recession? Moderation of ‘seasons’? Temperature of oceans? ….Local vs. global? What local variation could would be acceptable? (some regions may warm/others may cool) Is this all? Boundaries Is our system simply associated with carbon and temperature measurement? Or should it also for example include monitoring of biodiversity in the ocean (if we Injected carbon into ocean) Ocean jet streams health? Sea Levels? …. Our boundaries would have to defined such that all possible impacts of our actions would be monitored.

3.Engineering such systems must not be based on implicit or explicit models of centralized control in the traditional rigid sense. Such an approach is appropriate for simple, well-known systems, but not for the complex, unpredictable, and contingent systems involved here. In many cases, these projects will require integrated management of coupled biological, physical, and traditional engineered systems with high levels of uncertainty, and control and feedback mechanisms will be widely distributed along many temporal and spatial scale.

4. Whenever possible, engineered changes should be incremental to permit room for the continuous learning and feedback that incremental engineering interventions support.

5. The focus of ESE will be on the characteristics and dynamics of the system --- the interfaces, links, and feedback loops among system components – rather than on the system artifacts.

6. Continuous learning must be built into the whole ESE process --- institutionally.

7. ESE must explicitly accept high levels of uncertainty as endogenous to the engineering function, rather than thinking of engineering as an effort to create a system certain.

8. Management and organizational skills will be as important to success as traditional engineering skills. Communication must be made with all stakeholders at all stages in the process.

9. A goal of ESE is to support the development of robustness in system rather than redundancy.

10. ESE must rely upon inherently safe systems, rather than engineered safe systems.

11. ESE must have access to adequate resources….intergovernmental!!! Financial pressures and financial requirements will be extreme.

What do you think? Questions?

Knowledge/ Knowledge/societal/governmental needs? Lets say that ESE becomes a reality. First Step? What do you think?