PCE Statistics for Food and Energy Clint McCully Chief, Research Group National Income and Wealth Division APDU Annual Conference September 25, 2008

2 PCE Estimates  Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) includes purchases of goods and services for personal use  Business and government purchases not included  Purchases by self-employed included in business purchases  Purchases financed through government social benefits included in PCE (e.g. food stamps)

3 PCE Food and Energy  Food  Food and alcoholic beverages purchased for off-premise consumption  Purchased meals and beverages  Food furnished to employees and food produced and consumed on farms  Energy  Gasoline and oil  Fuel oil and coal  Gas  Electricity

4 Food & Energy Sources and Methods  Food  Benchmark: Commodity flow (off-premise) Food services sales (purchased meals)  Other periods: Retail control method  Energy  Gasoline & Oil: Q x P  Quantities: FHWA & EIA for total VIUS, NAFA, BEA stocks data for allocation  Price: ∑ (Q by grade * P by grade)/ ∑ Q from EIA  Fuel Oil & Coal: Commodity flow & retail control  Electricity & gas: Residential revenue from EIA  Deflation: CPI component indexes

5 Food and Energy Shares of PCE 1981 highest share = 9.2 % 2008 (7 mths) = 6.8 %

6 PCE Price Indexes

7 Food Price Changes

8 Food Prices and Consumption

9 PCE Energy Price Indexes

10 Gasoline Price & Quanity Arab oil embargo 2 nd oil crisis July ’08 = highest relative price

11 Trucks and Gasoline Prices Quantity index of new truck sales

12 Airline Prices and Consumption 9/11 & aftermath