2 Nanotechnology, replication, and low cost manufacturing Ralph C. Merkle, Ph.D. Principal Fellow

3 Health, wealth and atoms

4 Arranging atoms Diversity Precision Cost

5 Richard Feynman,1959 There’s plenty of room at the bottom

6 1980’s, 1990’s Binnig and Rohrer Experiment and theory

7 President Clinton, 2000 “Imagine the possibilities: materials with ten times the strength of steel and only a small fraction of the weight -- shrinking all the information housed at the Library of Congress into a device the size of a sugar cube -- detecting cancerous tumors when they are only a few cells in size.” The National Nanotechnology Initiative

8 Positional assembly

9 Experimental 100 microns

10 H. J. Lee and W. Ho, SCIENCE 286, p. 1719, NOVEMBER 1999 Experimental

11 Theoretical

12 Self replication A redwood tree (sequoia sempervirens) 112 meters tall Redwood National Park

13 Complexity (bits) Von Neumann's constructor 500,000 Mycoplasma genitalia 1,160,140 Drexler's assembler 100,000,000 Human 6,400,000,000 NASA over 100,000,000,000

14 The Von Neumann architecture Universal Computer Universal Constructor Self replication

15 Replicating bacterium DNA DNA Polymerase Self replication

16 Drexler’s proposal for an assembler Self replication

17 Macroscopic computer Molecular constructor Molecular constructor Molecular constructor Broadcast architecture

18 Advantages of broadcast architecture Smaller and simpler: no instruction storage, simplified instruction decode Easily redirected to manufacture valuable products Inherently safe Broadcast replication

19 Exponential assembly

20 Potatoes, lumber, wheat and other agricultural products have costs of roughly a dollar per pound. Molecular manufacturing will eventually make almost any product for a dollar per pound or less, independent of complexity. (Design costs, licensing costs, etc. not included) Replication The goal: low manufacturing costs

21 An overview of replicating systems for manufacturing Advanced Automation for Space Missions, edited by Robert Freitas and William Gilbreath NASA Conference Publication 2255, 1982 A web page with an overview of replication: Replication

22 be like living systems be adaptable (survive in natural environment) be very complex have on-board instructions be self sufficient (uses only very simple parts) Popular misconceptions: replicating systems must Replication

23 Feynman, 1959 “The problems of chemistry and biology can be greatly helped if our ability to see what we are doing, and to do things on an atomic level, is ultimately developed -- a development which I think cannot be avoided.”

25 The impact of a new manufacturing technology depends on what you make Impact

26 We’ll have more computing power in the volume of a sugar cube than the sum total of all the computer power that exists in the world today More than bits in the same volume Almost a billion Pentiums in parallel Powerful Computers Impact

27 New, inexpensive materials with a strength-to-weight ratio over 50 times that of steel Critical for aerospace: airplanes, rockets, satellites… Useful in cars, trucks, ships,... Lighter, stronger, smarter, less expensive Impact

28 Disease and ill health are caused largely by damage at the molecular and cellular level Today’s surgical tools are huge and imprecise in comparison Impact Nanomedicine

29 In the future, we will have fleets of surgical tools that are molecular both in size and precision. We will also have computers much smaller than a single cell to guide those tools. Impact Nanomedicine

30 Mitochondrion ~1-2 by microns Size of a robotic arm ~100 nanometers Impact 8-bit computer

31 “Typical” cell: ~20 microns Mitochondrion Size of a robotic arm ~100 nanometers Impact

32 Respirocytes

33 Human impact on the environment Population Living standards Technology The environment

34 Greenhouse agriculture/hydroponics Solar power Pollution free manufacturing The environment Reducing human impact on the environment

35 The scientifically correct answer is I don’t know Trends in computer hardware suggest early in this century — perhaps in the 2010 to 2020 time frame Of course, how long it takes depends on what we do How long?