Pensions in ESA 2010 WORKSHOP ON PENSIONS Canberra April 2013

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Presentation transcript:

Pensions in ESA 2010 WORKSHOP ON PENSIONS Canberra 22-24 April 2013 Jens Grütz Eurostat

Outline The new SNA 2008 Recognition of pension entitlements More specific: ESA 2010/Pension compilation guide Core / Non core recording Recommendations for actuarial issues Future activities in Europe Workshops Transmission program

Increasing information needs Pension entitlements should be recognized as financial assets/liabilities in macroeconomic statistics Pension entitlements represent a future benefit that contributes to the net wealth of households Omitted benefits / liabilities may lead to comparability problems in national/international analysis Accounting practice increasingly recognises pension entitlements

ESA 95: Current recording of pension entitlements Distinguish social insurance Pension schemes in social insurance treated according to their features: Private funded social insurance schemes - insurance technical reserves, actuarial treatment Unfunded private social insurance schemes - no insurance technical reserves Social security pension - no reserves, no actuarial treatment Possible different treatment across sectors/countries

IMF-led Electronic Discussion Group 2002-2004 Towards SNA2008 IMF-led Electronic Discussion Group 2002-2004 Discussions at the AEG 2004-2007 In principle record pension obligations, on an actuarial basis, for all employer schemes (funded/unfunded) but recording of social security remains unchanged Recognition of issues in Europe Difficulty to distinguish unfunded government employer schemes from social security  worldwide compromise SNA 2008 - Chapter 17 (part 2) Adopted by UNSC in August 2008 Some further issues left for the research agenda Criteria for core/non-core classification, treatment of property income

2008 SNA: Scope of pension entitlements in National Accounts Accrued-to-date pension entitlements Focussing on old age pensions Covering the entitlements already accrued in the past Taking on board new entitlements accrued in the respective period Ignoring the impact of work to be done in future periods on individual pension entitlements For db schemes actuarial techniques are required: Discounting the future benefits to present value

ESA 2010: Core / Non-core allocation of schemes 2008 SNA: Examples for criteria Closeness to social security Strength of the contribution-benefit-link Ability of government to change the scheme rules ESA 2010: Pragmatic solution Pay-as-you-go schemes of general government are, like social security, allocated to the non-core accounts. However, reporting on all schemes is provided in the supplementary table.

ESA 2010: Recommendations on actuarial issues Demographic assumptions: Longevity assumptions should include the increase of longevity over time; persons receiving disability pensions should be modelled separately Wage effects: The choice of an ABO or PBO approach should depend on the underlying benefit formula. Formulas including implicitly or explicitly a factor for wage increases should follow the PBO approach. Discount rate: The discount rate should be a risk-free rate. Some criteria are given in ESA 2010 further guidance is provided in the technical compilation guide.

Compilation guide: Recommendations on actuarial issues Technical compilation guide for Pension data in National Accounts / Ageing working group Discount rate = 3% in real terms; 5 % nominal Wage growth = 1.7 % in the (very) long run Life expectancy= Eurostat projection(Europop) Comparability of assumptions/results

ESA 2010 Transmission program Compulsory Table: Accrued-to-date pension entitlements in social insurance three yearly 2015 onwards (2012 on a voluntary basis) t+24 The data should comprise three datasets based on the actuarial calculations.

ESA 2010 Transmission program Clear and comprehensive communication on pensions Outcome of pension reforms Interpretation of pension data In particular: Accrued-to-date pension entitlements are not as such an indicator for sustainability of public finances

Sustainability analysis: The 2012 Ageing Report

The 2012 Ageing Report - Results

Past & Future activities on pensions ECB/Eurostat Task Force Final report http://www.cmfb.org/pdf/TF%20on%20Pensions%20-%20Final%20report.pdf ESA 2010 Training course – November 2012 Implementation of new ESA rules Software presentations & exercises Eurostat country visits – Identification of best practice Data sources Institutional set-up Modelling Pension workshops 2009/2010/2013 http://www.ecb.int/pub/pdf/other/ecbeurostatworkshoponpensions201002en.pdf

Past & Future activities on pensions - cont. Eurostat Contact Group Electronic discussion forum on issues related to the calculation of pension entitlements Questions to be sent to Eurostat Pension compilation guide/Update of the compilation guide http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/product_details/publication?p_product_code=KS-RA-11-027 Comments are welcome!

Thank you for your kind attention! Jens Gruetz Eurostat-C1 National Accounts methodology Jens.GRUETZ@ec.europa.eu