STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 1 The Trade Indicators Project (TIP) An OECD horizontal and international.

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Presentation transcript:

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 1 The Trade Indicators Project (TIP) An OECD horizontal and international project for creating a web-based, interactive research tool

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 2 The basic philosophy Globalisation analysis requires cross- disciplinary thinking and approaches A wealth of information needs to be –Sighted –Sorted –Analysed –Validated Bring separate database together in one application without duplication

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 3 Progress made There was strong agreement that there is growing demand for trade indicators and that the OECD should and could play a very useful role in this context. A statistical project, such as the TIP, with a solid methodological underpinning, combining different data sources and which could help to further advance the research agenda was recognized as a major possible tool for the international research community. OECDs richness of available international databases, ready to be used, was recognised as well as its competence and expertise in methodological questions There was agreement that OECDs Roundtable approach should be continued and regularly reported to the Trade Experts meetings and other interested bodies. There was a clear understanding that TIP would have to be embedded in the OECD.STAT environment. This means 2005 at the earliest from a data storage point of view. The first Web-based pilot version has been realised and is in place at the time of writing (September 2005).

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 4 Progress made As reported to the 4ht and 5 th ITS meeting: An inventory of available databases at OECD which could be used for the purposes of the TIP was drawn up by STD A first tentative selection of possible indicators was drawn up by OECD 3 Sources: an indicator Taxonomy (prepared by L. Iapadre, ICE) was integrated by OECD into the Roundtable conclusions and into the work done for the HEGI.

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 5 Achievements during the past 12 months: A methodological standard framework (see next slide) was developed Work for the OECD HEGI (Aspects of trade globalisation Chapter) served also as input into TIP Thorough research was carried out compiling all eligible OECD data sources and data availability Validation of data, integration into a Report Builder Creation of an Interactive, Web-based query tool

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 6 How does this look like at present?

ORGANISATION FOR ECONOMIC CO-OPERATION AND DEVELOPMENT ORGANISATION DE COOPÉRATION ET DE DEVELOPMENT ÉCONOMIQUES OECDOCDE (a.m.) September 2005 Beginning at a.m. on the first day 1 TIP: Standard methodological framework STATISTICS DIRECTORATE – INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 13 (p.m.) – 15 September 2005 Beginning at 2:30 p.m. on the first day & Dimensions Indicator ID Concept Reference Input Output Quality Data elementComment Name of Indicator - name of the indicator, - referenced as OECD indicator Definition- short definition Formula Valuation - current / constant price (based year) - exchange rate or PPPs used Complexity- technical complexity Data sources - databases used - flow chart - referenced series Data availability - periodicity - period brackets - area level: country / zone Visualisation - graphic trend - country benchmarking

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 8 Trade indicator groups 1.Trade balance and coverage ratio 2.Trade openness 3.Trade performance indicators 4.Geographic concentration indicators 5.Specialisation 6.Foreign direct investment indicators 7.Foreign controlled affiliates indicators 8.Technology based indicators 9.Trade policy indicators (WTO) 10.Price Indicators 11.Trade intensity and specialisation indicators

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 9 1. Trade balance and coverage ratio Trade balance value (X-M) Normalised trade balance ( [X-M] / [X+M] ) Coverage ratio (X/M) 2. Trade openness Trade-to-GDP-ratio ( [X+M] / GDP ) Export propensity ( X / GDP ) Import penetration ration ( M / [GDP-X+M] ) Trade per capita ([X+M] / POP ) …

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 10 1.Trade balance and coverage ratio Normalised trade balance Definition: exports minus imports divided by exports and imports Formula: NTB = (X-M) / (X+M) Valuation: ANA: current and constant prices, BoP: current prices, ITS: current prices Conversion ANA / ITS: exchange rates, BoP: in national currency Data availability: Database 1: ITS, Starting year: 1961 (depending on countries), ending year 2003 (depending on countries) Database 2: ANA, Starting year: 1960 (depending on countries), ending year 2003 (depending on countries) Database 3: BoP, Starting year: 1955 (depending on countries), ending year 2004 (depending on countries) Quality assessment: The normalised trade balance represents a record of countrys international transaction with the rest of the world normalised on its own total trade. A trade surplus or deficit in this analysis is related to total trade giving a more pertinent measure of trade performance. Its range is normalised between -1 and +1, which allows unbiased comparisons across time, countries and sectors. Complexity: very simple Visualisation: bar or column charts

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS Trade performance indicators Market shares ( x c / X total ) Export performance (Δx c –Σα* ΔM total ) … 4. Geographic concentration indicators Herfindahl index of geographical concentration Geographical distribution of export market shares of goods Geographical distribution of import penetration of goods Services trading partners ….

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 12 Development of a TIP web tool SNA/ANADatabase ITCSDatabaseALFSDatabaseTISDatabase…Database Data extraction (SQL queries), data combination and calculation of the indicators, using XL Report Builder Creation of dot.stat format using a macro OECD.stat flashmediagraphs (Planned)

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 13 Access to the TIP data via OECD.Stat Browser (planned)

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 14 Access to the TIP data via OECD.Stat Browser (planned)

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 15 Access to the TIP data via OECD.Stat Browser (planned)

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 16 Access to the TIP data via OECD.Stat Browser (planned) Save in xls-Format And/or save query

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 17 Interactive graphic presentation (planned) The trade indicators will be probably made available as macromedia flash objects (*.swf) [embedded in *.html] This will allow interactivity in the graphics The graphs will be produced using XCelsius graphic software …examples…

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 18 Examples of interactive graphs Trade balance vs. normalised TBTrade balance vs. normalised TB Trade per capita, trade per capita to propensityTrade per capita, trade per capita to propensity Export performanceExport performance Export/import propensityExport/import propensity Trade balance to GDPTrade balance to GDP Market sharesMarket shares Geographical origin of import penetrationGeographical origin of import penetration

STATISTICS DIRECTORATE - INTERNATIONAL TRADE & STRUCTURAL BUSINESS STATISTICS 19 Directions for further research Trade plus indicators, that is trade plus production (e.g. trade orientation measures), trade plus employment (e.g. correlation of trade and employment indicators, trade plus FDI/trade by foreign-affiliated firms (e.g. globalisation strategies). More Trade in Services data is needed containing cross tabulations by products and partner countries. Better integration of databases and Analytical Nomenclatures, e.g. by technology and factor intensity. Links of customs sources with enterprise structural statistics, as discussed at the 6th ITS meeting to allow building up micro data on enterprise-characteristics, performance and related trade. Trade intensity and specialisation indicators.