Choices for the Future A Presentation on the Willamette Valley Alternative Transportation Futures Project Transportation and Land Use Planning Applications Forum Gainesville, Florida October 19, 2001

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Presentation Overview What Prompted This Project? What were our Objectives? How did we carryout the Project? What did we Learn?

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Origins of Oregon’s Land Use Program Concerns over:Concerns over: –loss of farm and forest land –sprawl –environmental impacts of growth Senate Bill 100Senate Bill 100

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Key Provisions of SB Planning Goals dealing with a range of issues including:19 Planning Goals dealing with a range of issues including: –housing, transportation, urbanization, farm and forest land Establishment of Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB’s)Establishment of Urban Growth Boundaries (UGB’s)

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Beyond SB 100 Move beyond focus on UGB “Islands”Move beyond focus on UGB “Islands” Willamette Valley EffortsWillamette Valley Efforts –Partnership for Valley Future Conference (Oregon Progress Board) –Willamette Valley Transportation Strategy –Willamette Valley Livability Forum

The WVLF is a Voluntary Consortium of Over 80 Members Forum Purpose - Help Valley residents and decision-makers find and promote solutions to growth and development issues in the ValleyForum Purpose - Help Valley residents and decision-makers find and promote solutions to growth and development issues in the Valley Forum Goals:Forum Goals: Share informationShare information Make connectionsMake connections Build a visionBuild a vision Advise state and local officialsAdvise state and local officials

Opportunity Pacific Northwest Ecosystem Research ConsortiumPacific Northwest Ecosystem Research Consortium –Willamette River Basin Case Study 1000 Friends of Oregon1000 Friends of Oregon –Willamette Valley Alternative Futures Research Project ODOT’s Development of Statewide ModelODOT’s Development of Statewide Model Alternative Transportation Futures Project

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Purpose 2) Identify policy choices to avoid or minimize future impacts of growth on transportation. 1) Take a long-range look at the future of land use and transportation in Oregon’s Willamette Valley.

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Guided by a 14-member Project Steering Committee Jon Chandler, OBIA Chris Hagerbaumer, OTRAN Bob Cortright, DLCD Gary Johnson, ODOT Ed Gallagher, Governor's Comm. Dev. Office Craig Greenleaf, ODOT Robert Liberty, 1000 Friends of Oregon Bob Russell, OHUA Richard Brandman, Metro Susan Brody, WVLF Marcia Kelley, MWACT Tom Schwetz, LCOG Mike Propes, Polk County Joan Baker, EPA

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Approach Used state-of-art computer modeling techniquesUsed state-of-art computer modeling techniques Simulated effects of alternative land use and transportation policies over the next 50 years for 11,500 Sq Mi Valley and State as a wholeSimulated effects of alternative land use and transportation policies over the next 50 years for 11,500 Sq Mi Valley and State as a whole

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Integrated Statewide Computer Model Analytical tool to help understand complex interactions among Oregon’s economy, land use patterns, and transportation system

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Scope of Integrated Model Designed to address the policy concerns in Oregon such as the effects of:Designed to address the policy concerns in Oregon such as the effects of: – –Land use and transportation policies on population and employment distributions; – –Land use on travel behavior; – –Highway capacity increases on travel behavior and land use; – –Transit investments on highway use; and – –Changes in the state’s population and economy on transportation and land use.

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum 122-Analysis Zone Structure Not high definition – the model’s resolution lends itself to regional levels of analysis, rather than evaluations of short-distance trips.

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Economic Submodel Calculates overall economic activity

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Location Submodel Allocates population and employment growth A B C

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Transportation Submodel Calculates travel resulting from movement of goods/svcs

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Policy Choices Considered Land available for development Investments in highways and transit Cost of driving

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Evaluated Seven Scenarios Created scenarios with distinct differences to facilitate evaluation of resultsCreated scenarios with distinct differences to facilitate evaluation of results Evaluated each to the year 2050 in 5- year incrementsEvaluated each to the year 2050 in 5- year increments Used same statewide population and employment forecastsUsed same statewide population and employment forecasts

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Framework for Scenarios No Action Mile Tax Compact Dev Transit & Hwy Hybrids 1&2 Land Use Measures Demand Management System Improvements

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum What have we learned ?

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum There’s No Silver Bullet Whatever we do, an additional 1.7 million people will result in increased traffic congestion levels.

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum We can have an effect on just how crowded highways will become in years ahead.

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Combining compact development, increased transit service, additional highway lanes, and higher driving costs reduces 2050 traffic congestion levels in half.

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Transit: – –Transportation pricing increases transit ridership. – –Increasing the frequency and convenience of public transit encourages more use. Freight: – –The hybrid approach also provides the greatest benefit for truck freight mobility – –Congestion impacts truck freight movement to a greater extent than passenger travel. Other Key Findings

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Effects on Population and Employment Distribution

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Expanding public transit concentrates jobs in major urban centers while pulling population to outlying cities.

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Expanding highways draws both people and jobs to outlying cities.

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Overall Findings No single approach (more efficient land use, infrastructure investments, or roadway pricing) is as effective in keeping traffic moving as is a balanced combination of these approaches (Hybrids).No single approach (more efficient land use, infrastructure investments, or roadway pricing) is as effective in keeping traffic moving as is a balanced combination of these approaches (Hybrids). The model results confirm the interconnection between the economy, land use and transportation and reinforce the importance of regional approaches for transportation planning.The model results confirm the interconnection between the economy, land use and transportation and reinforce the importance of regional approaches for transportation planning.

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Wrap-up Process LessonsProcess Lessons CriticismsCriticisms Things to improveThings to improve

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Process Lessons Changes the Nature of the Planning QuestionChanges the Nature of the Planning Question Difficulty exporting the “Aha”sDifficulty exporting the “Aha”s –Process is Experiential Brings home the limits of public policyBrings home the limits of public policy Value is in exploring broader causes and effectsValue is in exploring broader causes and effects Decision aiding, not decision makingDecision aiding, not decision making

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Criticisms Complex relationships defy modeling for current conditions, let alone Fifty years out for a whole stateComplex relationships defy modeling for current conditions, let alone Fifty years out for a whole state Highly abstracted results are easily misused/misunderstood by interest groupsHighly abstracted results are easily misused/misunderstood by interest groups Avoids more difficult and detailed planning needed in the short runAvoids more difficult and detailed planning needed in the short run

Alternative Transportation Futures: A Project of the Willamette Valley Livability Forum Effort currently under way to improve robustness of statewide model by: Increasing geographic resolution (i.e., more analysis zones) and expanding detail of transportation network Accounting for freight transported by rail and barge. Adding capabilities to evaluate peak congestion periods Representing economic interactions between Oregon and rest of the nation. Next Generation

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