Presentation by Alan Johnson to AUCKLAND UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY Manukau Research Symposium HOUSING RESEARCH FOR SOUTH AUCKLAND

 To monitor changing housing conditions as part of a broader assessment of social well-being  To assess the effectiveness of existing public programmes in meeting housing needs – especially for the most vulnerable  To identify public policy and programme gaps Possible research objectives

 There is not one housing market but a series of interconnected sub-markets which are defined by tenure, class and location  Many housing statistics are reported in aggregate or in ways which advantage or interest those with power  Housing statistics which may be most useful for gaining a clear understanding of the housing position of the most vulnerable are seldom available  This makes informed and balanced policy debate difficult Some complications

POPULATION ESTIMATES Quarterly Annually Five yearly Housing data matrix NATIONALLY REGIONALLY LOCALLY HOUSING DEMAND DATA AVAILABLE NEW CONSTRUCTION Quarterly Quarterly Quarterly ABILITY TO PAY Bi-annually (HES) Bi-annually (HES) Census ? HOUSING STOCK Quarterly Five yearly Five yearly HOUSEHOLD FORMATION Quarterly Annually Five yearly HOUSING SUPPLY HOUSING DEMAND HNZC WAITING LISTS Monthly Monthly Monthly SALES TURNOVER Monthly Monthly Monthly MARKET AGGREGATES SALE PRICES Monthly Monthly Monthly RENTS Monthly Monthly Monthly OCCUPANCY RATES Census? Census ? Census? AFFORDABILITY Quarterly Quarterly None FITNESS None None None

 Census data is probably not reliable especially in terms of a consistent definition of households and reports of household incomes and occupancy levels.  This makes measurement of housing affordability and household overcrowding difficult or at best unreliable and this is a five yearly snapshot on any account  HNZC data is unreliable because there is some question around whether its needs assessment process is an assessment or rationing tool Data limitations

Example of local housing research MANGERE HOUSING SURVEY A SNAPSHOT OF OVERCROWDING IN SOUTH AUCKLAND

Ex Example of local housing research

Ex Findings  No significant increase in levels of overcrowding  Significant demographic change - older Pakeha households replaced by much younger Pasifika ones - A local baby boom 13.5% of surveyed population were under 5 years old  Identified local housing market dynamics - shift in tenure from owner-occupation to private rental - overcrowding highest in owner-occupied houses - fewer houses with 1 or 2 people in = better stock utilisation perhaps

HOUSING DEMAND AND NEW DWELLING CONSENTS - AUCKLAND Where are people living then? POSSIBLE MINIMUM LEVEL OF BUILDING REQUIRED TO MAINTAIN HOUSING AVAILABILITY

A basis for local housing research  Housing need - closer scrutiny of HNZC application and letting data - standardised survey of people seeking help from social service.  Housing demand - a household/population model of South Auckland perhaps based on 2013 Census - model updated with regularly with data on local births and deaths and estimates migration of migration  Housing supply - housing stock inventory based on 2013 Census - inventory updated with regular construction data  Housing affordability - household income model based on 2013 Census HES HLFS and QES - rent model updated with Tenancy Bonds data