Moores Law Dynamics of a Technological Revolution Thomas J. Misa Charles Babbage Institute www.cbi.umn.edu.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Current State of Play in Digital Preservation Peter B. Hirtle Cornell University Library Society of American Archivists.

Advertisements

Information Technology and the American Productivity Resurgence By Dale W. Jorgenson Harvard University May 13, 2008

Are you? Q Press 1 Male Press 2 Female Your age? Q Press Press Press Press 4 65+

Progress Against Prostate Cancer. 1970–1979 Progress Against Prostate Cancer 1970–1979 Early 1970s: Radioactive ''seeds'' proven effective for prostate.

Career Technical Education Educating Californias 21 st Century Workforce Pacific Policy Research Foundation November 16, 2006.

1 Integrating Arab e-Infrastructure in a Global Environment December 2011 Amman, Jordan KM, ICTs for development and e-learning initiatives in the.

ITRS Meeting. Stresa, Italy. April 19-20, G. Bomchil. ST Microelectronics 1 Integrated Project « CMOS backbone for 2010 e-Europe » NANOCMOS From.

International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors

International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors 2001

07/24/02 Alan Allan / Intel Corporation

April 2005 UMBC Introduction to IEEE April 6, 2005 UMBC UMBC Computer Engineering Students Dr. Jeff Friedhoffer Past Baltimore Section Chair

1 Journal of Information Systems Why JIS exists FYI Statistics The future of AIS research.

Ithaka A Systemwide View of Library Collections Brian Lavoie, OCLC Research Roger C. Schonfeld, Ithaka CNI Spring Task Force Meeting April 5, 2005.

4th World Telecommunication Indicators Meeting

ILT Strategies in the Learning and Skills Era March 2001.

SWITCH Visit to NeSC Malcolm Atkinson Director 5 th October 2004.

SIIA 30 th Annual National Educational Conference An Independent View of the Stop Loss Market Today October 14, 2010 Actuarial Management Strategies, Inc.

50 th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction John Jones Deputy Assistant Administrator for Weather Services June 15, 2004 University of.

I N T E R N E T.

International training programs in Brussels related to scientific information and ICT Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Pleinlaan.

Fifth Edition 1 M a n a g e m e n t I n f o r m a t i o n S y s t e m s M a n a g I n g I n f o r m a t i o n T e c h n o l o g y i n t h e E – B u s i.

Girls, when I was growing up, my parents used to say to me, Tom, finish your dinner – people in China and India are starving. My advice to you is: Girls,

Information Technology and the World Economy By Dale W. Jorgenson Harvard University March 5, 2005.

ITE Education Services

From Delft into Almere Prof.dr.ir.Taeke M. de Jong.

KB Research & Development Presentation for representatives of the National Diet Library 3 December 2003 Hans Jansen Head Research & Development Division.

Permanent access and archives Strategies and actions at the KB Hans Jansen, Koninklijke Bibliotheek, National Library of The Netherlands.

WARNING ! Knowledge Management is not a topic for parties. Knowledge : - familiarity gained by experience - feelings, facts, beliefs, experiences - know-how.

1 Dividends from the ‘New’ Economy: Economic Impacts of ICT Matti Pohjola World Institute for Development Economics Research (WIDER) United Nations University.

INSE - Lecture 16  Documentation  Configuration Management  Program Support Environments  Choice of Programming Language.

The IEEE and the Education Society A general view and more… Marcelo C. de Castro IEEE Student Member Chair of IEEE EdSoc Students Committee 2005.

COMPUTER B Y : L K. WINDOWS INFORMATION B Y : L K.

Source: Financial Times of London Global Banks 1999 – 2009 “Changing of the Guard”

The C P U In this lesson you will learn about the Press Enter or Click to continue Central Processing Unit.

Introduction to CMOS VLSI Design Lecture 21: Scaling and Economics

Personal reflections, Belgrade, November 30,2009 Markus Nordberg, CERN/ATLAS.

Nanoscale structures in Integrated Circuits By Edward Mulimba.

Moore’s Law Kyle Doran Greg Muller Casey Culham May 2, 2007.

Computers in Society History of Computing. Homework Assignment #3 is ready to go – let’s have a look. Questions about HW1? More people to schedule for.

Spring 07, Jan 23 ELEC 7770: Advanced VLSI Design (Agrawal) 1 ELEC 7770 Advanced VLSI Design Spring 2007 Moore’s Law Vishwani D. Agrawal James J. Danaher.

Spring 10, Jan 13ELEC 7770: Advanced VLSI Design (Agrawal)1 ELEC 7770 Advanced VLSI Design Spring 2010 VLSI Yield and Moore’s Law Vishwani D. Agrawal James.

EE141 © Digital Integrated Circuits 2nd Introduction 1 The First Computer.

ASIC Design Introduction - 1 The history of Integrated Circuit (IC) The base for such a significant progress –Well understanding of semiconductor physics.

EZ-COURSEWARE State-of-the-Art Teaching Tools From AMS Teaching Tomorrow’s Technology Today.

AN INVESTIGATION INTO THE REQUIREMENTS OF A PC-BASED LEARNING ENVIRONMENT FOR THE EDUCATION OF MICROELECTRONIC TEST ENGINEERING Joseph Walsh and Ian Grout.

{ The demise of Conventional Computing? Bilal Kaleem, 1 st Year Physics.

SCSC 311 Information Systems: hardware and software.

History of Integrated Circuits  In 1961 the first commercially available integrated circuits came from the Fairchild Semiconductor Corporation.  The.

Carrier Mobility and Velocity Mobility - the ease at which a carrier (electron or hole) moves in a semiconductor Mobility - the ease at which a carrier.

Multi-core Programming Introduction Topics. Topics General Ideas Moore’s Law Amdahl's Law Processes and Threads Concurrency vs. Parallelism.

Collin County Community College District Sentence Corrections Technical Writing Class.

20 October Management of Information Technology Chapter 6 Chapter 6 IT Infrastructure and Platforms Asst. Prof. Wichai Bunchua.

1 CS/COE0447 Computer Organization & Assembly Language CHAPTER 1.

VLSI: A Look in the Past, Present and Future Basic building block is the transistor. –Bipolar Junction Transistor (BJT), reliable, less noisy and more.

HPEC 2004 Panel Session: Amending Moore’s Law for Embedded Applications Roadmapping the Semiconductor Industry: Are we reaching the end of the road? Bob.

Present – Past -- Future

Computer Science, Algorithms, Abstractions, & Information CSC 2001.

EE586 VLSI Design Partha Pande School of EECS Washington State University

EE141 © Digital Integrated Circuits 2nd Introduction 1 Principle of CMOS VLSI Design Introduction Adapted from Digital Integrated, Copyright 2003 Prentice.

DR. SIMING LIU SPRING 2016 COMPUTER SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF NEVADA, RENO Session 3 Computer Evolution.

IEEE/IET Electronic Library 국립중앙도서관 Authorized Dealer in Korea.

SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION AND INTERNATIONAL TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP FOR SEMICONDUCTORS (ITRS) Kelsey Miller 4/29/2016 Abstract: The United States semiconductor.

S ILICON. WHAT IS SILICON? Silicon vs Alumnium SILICON Properties –Second most common element in the earth crust after oxygen –High melting point (1414°C)

Integration Lower sums Upper sums

Technology advancement in computer architecture

Session 1 What is Strategy?

Hardware & Processor Pioneers

Chapter 8 Technology and Information Management

ELEC 7770 Advanced VLSI Design Spring 2014 VLSI Yield and Moore’s Law

Presentation transcript:

Moores Law Dynamics of a Technological Revolution Thomas J. Misa Charles Babbage Institute

Plan for today Views of Moores Law (1965--) What sort of law? Turning points Making a Law Nothing about the future CBIwhat are we, who supports, what do we do?

Views of Moores Law (1)

Views of Moores Law (2) Electronics 19 April 1965

Views of Moores Law (3) The complexity for minimum component costs has increased at a rate of roughly a factor of two per year... Certainly over the short term this rate can be expected to continue…. Over the longer term … there is no reason to believe it will not remain nearly constant for at least 10 years. Gordon Moore Electronics (19 April 1965)

Views of Moores Law (4) Gordon Moore Electronics 19 April 1965

Views of Moores Law (5) TI integrated circuit (early 1960s) Pentium-4 300mm wafer (2000)

What kind of law? Gordon Moore (1965) Carver Mead (c.1970) Regis McKenna (?) The press called this Moores Law and the name has stuck. GM

What kind of law? Gordon Moore (1975): Larger die-size ~ 1/3 contribution Die-size x smaller dimensions ~1/3 Device and circuit cleverness ~1/3

What kind of law? Bipolar to MOS (except ) XCCD memories DRAM (early) Microprocessors (later)... hard drives (Kryders law)... software (Wirths law)

1965 | 1977 | 1987 | 1992 | 1998 Insight Investments Expectations Public policy Popular understanding

1965 | 1977 | 1987 | 1992 | 1998 G. Moore Progress in Digital Integrated Electronics Technical Digest IEEE Intl Electron Devices (1975) R.Noyce Large Scale Integration: What is Yet to Come? Science (1977) R.Noyce Microelectronics Scientific American (1977) Carver Meads evangelism (Moores data)

1965 | 1977 | 1987 | 1992 | 1998 DSB Task Force on Semiconductor Dependency (1986) SEMATECH f (14 firms + $100M DoD) Coop R&D across industry IBM leads roadmapping inside SEMATECH

1965 | 1977 | 1987 | 1992 | 1998 SIA starts National Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors (NTRS) NTRS as most detailed reincarnation [of] Moores Law (W.Maly CMU)

1965 | 1977 | 1987 | 1992 | 1998 NTRS -> ITRS (SIAs of US, Japan, Europe, S.Korea; later Taiwan) Moores Law as self-fulfilling prediction that drives industry-wide planning (NSF 2000) 1980s nationalism -> globalism

insight | invest | expect | public | popular Insight Role of science (GM, CM as PhDs) Knowledge of technical field (success after the fact)

insight | invest | expect | public | popular Investments (1) Sequoia Capitals Don Valentine: I just follow Moores Law and make a few guesses about its consequences. (2005)

insight | invest | expect | public | popular Investments (2) Intels Craig Barrett (2002): we dont adhere to Moores Law for the hell of it. Its a fundamental expectation that everybody at Intel buys into. We dangle Moores Law in front of the new young minds … and say, Hey, your predecessors were smart enough to figure this out for the past 20 or 30 yearswhy the hell arent you?

insight | invest | expect | public | popular Expectations If we can stay on the SIA Roadmap, we can essentially stay on the [Moores Law] curve. It really becomes a question of putting the track ahead of the train to stay on plan. (G.Moore 1997)

insight | invest | expect | public | popular Public policy U.S. trade policy SEMATECH R&D consortium Collective action (SIA ---> ITRS)

insight | invest | expect | public | popular Popular understanding (feedback)

What is CBI?

Worlds leading research collection on history of computing 200 archival collections 400 oral histories 150,000 photos 1 mile of paper records 5 staff + students Charles Babbage ( )

Who supports us? University Library IT Dean History of Science, Technology & Medicine (Ph.D. program) ERA endowment CBI Friends (annual)

What do we do? Research Archiving Publication Infrastructure

Archiving = boxes in attic to research tool Records from companies, individuals, professional organizations, government Rare publications Photos, films, videotapes Archiving | Research | Publishing | Infrastructure

DARPA history ( ) Software History (NSF ) Documenting Internet2 (NA ) IBM Rochester study (2005-6) Computer services industry E-government (NSFs FastLane) Moores Law Archiving | Research | Publishing | Infrastructure

Social Infrastructure –20+ CBI-Tomash fellows –Local/inter/national networks… –Researchers, practitioners, financial supporters Physical infrastructure Archiving | Research | Publishing | Infrastructure

Blasting for caverns July 1997 Tunnel entrance December 1997

Archiving | Research | Publishing | Infrastructure Underground caverns Andersen Library June 1999

Archiving | Research | Publishing | Infrastructure Andersen Library Grand Opening April 2000

The End