End of PC’s?

New world of information society! Integration of the two worlds. Collapse of time, space.

Possibilities

E-business

Information growth

Information Society – the major issue "Study: Net Fueling Global Job Boom" E-Commerce Times (08/29/00); Enos, Lori Jobs created by the Internet economy in the United States and six European countries will exceed 10 million by 2002, concludes a new study, "Internet Enabled Job Creation and the Digital Revolution," from Andersen Consulting. The study reports that the Internet will be the cause of 3 million jobs in Spain, Italy, France, Germany, Ireland, and the United Kingdom, and 5.8 million jobs in the United States by Internet-related industries will create an additional 2 million jobs. Democratic presidential nominee Al Gore this week on his Web site released an economic plan to create 10 million new high-tech jobs over the next 10 years by focusing on IT training initiatives. Under Gore's plan companies would receive a $6,000 tax credit per worker for IT training. The plan also calls for a tax credit of as much as $2,800 for expenses related to higher education. Gore says his job plan would encourage favorable policies for the high-tech and e-commerce industries. Noting that the IT market has accounted for almost a third of U.S. economic growth in recent years, Gore says the government and private industry should both strive to "make the Internet as common as the telephone."

Economy – IS one of major issues "Greenspan Upbeat on Technology" Washington Post (08/26/00) P. E1; Berry, John M. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, cited technology as the main reason for the continued growth of productivity in the United States. Greenspan said, "The most recent wave of technology has engendered a pronounced rise in American rates of return on high-tech investments, which has led to a stepped-up pace of capital [spending] and increased productivity growth." He also noted that technology has improved trade and the integration of the world's economies. … 6 percent for the 12-month period ended this June. This growth continues to amaze economists, who did not expect to see such prolonged growth without an accompanying rise in inflation Aug25.html Aug25.html

Overseas Tech Jobs Proliferate IS one of major promoters of progress  "San Francisco Chronicle (06/01/03) P. I1; Zuckerman, Sam; Kirby, Carrie: The attraction of transferring technology operations overseas where labor is cheaper, and is transforming Silicon Valley and eroding its role as a low-end software developer. Forrester reckons that 3.3 million service-sector positions--approximately 473,000 computer industry jobs among them--will migrate to nations such as India, the Philippines, China, and Russia by Marc Hebert of Sierra Atlantic predicts that in several years' time 50% of all Silicon Valley software firms will keep only 20% of their technical personnel in the United States, while the 80% that account for software support and maintenance will move offshore. Although saving money is the primary reason companies are moving tech projects overseas, another major lure is the increasing proficiency and productivity of foreign computer scientists and engineers. … is "a serious economic threat to American workers," while advocates counter that outsourcing is an inevitable consequence of the global economy, one that gives American businesses room to expand both inside and outside the United States.

Needs for IT Workers

USA Visas for IT Workers , , ,000 Table 1: USA visas

BASIC I.S. LAWS m Moore’s law (exponential growth ) m Metcalf’s law: value(network) = square(no. of nodes) m Sidgemor’s law (exponential growth of net traffic) m Andreesen … net capitalism = frictionless economy

ZAKONI INFORMACIJSKE DRUŽBE mMetcalfe's Law - value of a network is proportional to the square of the number of nodes Put on the Internet all your information and information activities The Internet is the major source of knowledge (Google, databases, information sources) The cyber-world doubles fortune Side effects of information society include information overload and unemployment Information society demands intensive information knowledge for successful leadership Information society belongs to all of us The Internet is the most democratic and free media in the world The Internet and information society are our hope for the future

Background - Information Society  new breed/generation  new technology, old thinking  nothing new last year?  predicting the future

What is new?  Info <> material  1 page of bits? No smell, no mass papers  Trillions of bits travel daily  Generation gaps  TCP/IP 1 mail – many peaces distributed, very robust  Everybody has access to the whole world in both directions  Multimedia – speech, NLU  Law – pornography  E-money order through Web  Privacy? Viruses (2000 s), worms, spying ripts/br?lang=win  Kids help grand..  Owning the Web

Trends of progress  Information society : quick changes, from local to global, non-determined world,  Infosphere: handling information

Which info to handle?  Mass media – daily papers, weekly journals … (paper)  Scientific/popular journals  Books, manuals … paper  TV, teletext, interactive TV  Computer (Intranet, Extranet, Internet, local connections) electronic  Human comm.  Examples of mass deceptions: - politicians - boxing - p. games

Predicting the future  1876: telephones are useless  In 1950: by 2000 super- intelligent computer (much faster HW)  1950: the whole world needs 10 computers  In 1960: by 1980 home robots  1977: there will be no home computers  Average human will live to 100 y.

New products  Intelligent house  int. housekeeping  int. car services...  business  TV-computer  Media/speech/ understanding  Napster, movies  Internet guides local-global  Education – MIT  Encyclopedia  Games – through the Internet

Generation no.Generation nameMajor occupation I.Machine-levelHardware II.ProgrammingWriting programs III.Tools Data, text manipulation IV. Information society Information services, Internet Another Saturation Soon! Computer Generations

Generation no.Generation nameMain object I.AgrarianFood II.IndustrialProduction III.Post-industrialServices IV.Information Human Generations

Generation name DurationComm. Speed Agrarian years3-5 km/h human Industrial horse, car Post-industrial airplane Information network IS Impact on Humans (Lewis)

Human Saturation Info clock << biological clock  Terminal velocity  Conflict between biological and information clock  Humans can’t cope with information overflow  Solution: WE NEED INTELLIGENT ASSISTANTS

Generation no.Generation nameStatus I.Machine-levelSlave II.ProgrammingSlave III.ToolsSlave IV. Information society Assistant Computer Generations

Major problems lack of true intelligence trust unemployment Table 1: USA visas

Discussion  Information society – a great opportunity for IT educated technological, human, social  Intelligent assistants - SW generation with some degree of freedom when executing tasks  We need information society to progress – and not to lag behind  Personally – a great decision!

Possibilities