Economic Commission for Africa The Economic Impact of Climate change: An African Perspective Abdoulie Janneh UN Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary, ECA October 2009

Climate change Scientific Evidence SERIOUS ! URGENT ! Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

Climate change: African perspective AFRICA Hardest hit by the impacts Contributes LESS < 4% GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS

Climate change: African perspective Scientists estimate – The continent likely to experience: Higher temperature increases Changing rainfall patterns Rising sea levels Increased climate variability Increased severity & frequency of droughts, floods & storms Changes in agricultural, livestock and fisheries productivity Increase in water-related diseases Exacerbate current socio-economic challenges + Meeting the MDGs

Climate change: African perspective IPCC AR4: Potential sectoral impacts of CC in Africa By 2020, mil people exposed to increased water stress By 2020, in some countries, yields from rain-fed agriculture reduced by upto 50% Towards the end of the 21 st century, projected sea level will affect low-lying coastal areas By 2080, 5-8 % increase of arid & semi-arid land in Africa

Climate change: African perspective Recent Modeling indicates that in Africa … loss of 4.7% of GNP Temp. increase of 2 oC hunger for 128 mil. 108 mil. affected by flooding sea level rise of 15 – 95 cm Temp. rise of 2.5 – 5 degrees

Climate change: African perspective Hampers human development Nature & extent of climate change Major threat to human security Hampers ecosystems integrity Spark violent conflicts Massive migrations due to climate change Fuel international Out migration

Climate change: African perspective Most vulnerable + Least able to adapt to the impacts of CC Africas reliance on local ecological Resources + Existing stresses on health and well-being + Limited financial, institutional and human resources Increasing frequency of severe weather-related events Consequences for the little development gains registered

Climate change: African perspective Adaptation …… crucial ! Cost of adaptation 5 – 10 % GDP IPCC estimate Mitigation …… also important ! Cost of mitigation for Developing countries US$ 100 – 200 billion

Leveraging Partnerships for CC in Africa Consultations on Africas position on Copenhagen outcomes Negotiators High-level experts Ministers Heads of State & Governments African Common Position on Climate Change 13 th Ordinary Summit of the African Union, July 2009 Conference of African Heads of State & Governments on Climate Change (CAHOSCC) Members: Algeria, Rep. of Congo, Ethiopia, Kenya, Mauritius, Mozambique, Nigeria, Uganda, Chairpersons of AU & AUC, Chairperson of AMCEN

Leveraging Partnerships for CC in Africa Consultations on Africas position on Copenhagen outcomes AU Summit Aug/Sep 2009 Tripoli, Libya Mr. Meles Zenawi Prime Minister of Ethiopia Designated as Africas spokesperson on climate change 50 African countries ONE VOICE Political impetus to engage with the global community

Leveraging Partnerships for CC in Africa ECA ECA actively engaged in Africa regional process towards Copenhagen African Climate Policy Centre (ACPC) Climate for Development in Africa (Climdev-Africa) Supported by DFID Important role in shaping Africas policy responses & actions post 2012 CC regime

Economic Commission for Africa Thank You!