Project Design Assumptions, Pre-conditions, Risks

NarrativeIndicators Means of Verification Preconditions / assumptions / risks General goals -impacts, effects, -Outcomes Project Objective …. Outputs … Activities … Including monitoring plan Inputs LF Matrix: Assumptions The important events, pre- conditions, or decisions necessary for the achievement of the goals, objectives, outputs or activities. Link to statement of risks, for risk management.

Assumptions Factors important for fulfilment of goals or objectives, but outside the project’s scope A project does not exist in a social, economic and political vacuum. For its success it is dependent on norms, laws, ordinances, policies, political will and commitment, allocation of funds, and perhaps many other things.

If you started with a Problem Tree Return to the problem tree Identify all the “other” contributing root causes of the problem being addressed; How much of the achievement of the objective or goal depends on addressing these other problems? = a clue on assumptions.

Problem Tree / Cause + Effect High Unemployment Poor matching service Companies don’t use employment service Job-seekers do not know of service Companies have poor HR divisions Wrong skill set Ed. System not employment- oriented Education not available to all They don’t know about it No training in HR or recruitment Poor database Low family incomes Companies have wrong staff for jobs Lower productivity, job dissatisfaction, Low standards of living High social discontent Social unrest Damage to property Investors don’t invest Cannot pay school fees Poor info distribution Few jobs available

If you started with a Vision Identify other preconditions, constraints and hindrances; Do any of these constitute assumptions?

Risk Refers to the probability and effect on the project of an assumption failing to be true.

Risk Analysis and Risk Management Analysis of the risks affecting the project’s objectives and plans to avoid these risks. The persons / the project group that are responsible for the project must identify, analyse and assess different factors, which, in different ways, affect the possibilities available to the project to achieve its objectives.

Probability of failure Impact Low Risk = Low probability X Low impact High Risk = High probability X High impact Low probability, High impact risk High probability Low impact risk

External factors / risks: These are risks that exist outside the framework of the project (for example political developments, natural disasters, corruption etc.) It is most often the case that the project group cannot exert an influence on these risks.

Internal factors / risks These are risks of the type that are possible for the project to exercise control over. They can be practical matters such as delays in deliveries, personnel turnover etc. In most cases project management can minimise the effects of these internal risks.

An alternative look… Narrative levelAssumptionsRisksMitigation Goal: … Outcome… Job seekers find jobs faster, employers get the rights staff quickly The right job seekers exist; firms describe vacancies well, … 1. Education system does not provide enough of the right skills; 2. the jobs don’t exist; 3. firms give poor information. Continuously work with Priv. Sector to forecast skills needs, & with MoE to ensure the needs are met. … … …. Objective:… A system in place to connect job seekers with job vacancies Businesses will be willing to post vacancies here. Businesses find that alternatives to finding employees are more effective & turn elsewhere Work with businesses from the start; focus on job types where we can deliver, & companies need help. Output 1:… Computerised match- ing system installed & functioning. We can find a firm able to design & install the system Quality of system is not good enough, too expensive, or not robust enough Exercise great care in specifications, & in contract conditions to ensure success. Output 2: …

Probability of failure Importance of pre-condition Low probability Low importance High probability High importance Re-evaluate the project completely

Assumption Decision Tree

Is the assumption important? Mention it, include it as something to watch, prepare for mitigation actions Is it possible to redesign the activity or project to reduce the importance of this factor?, Very Unlikely Don’t bring it up Will it hold true? Possibly Almost certainly Yes No Redesign the project to reduce influence of this external factor. The project may not be feasible. Yes No

Risk decision tree

For Today Check the assumptions, pre-conditions and risks associated with your project: –Internal: what are you going to do about them? –External: how serious are they? Use the decision tree(s) to determine whether or not you must redesign your project, or just have contingency plans ready.